Market down another 500pts today. In the 9k's
 

Maybe once the shock wears off I'll be able to understand what's going on. First id dives 777 points because the bailout vote failed. Couple days later it passes and drops again. Today it drops another crazy amount. We've now officially fallen the 40% since it's high. Very wild. I won't lie I feel like I've been murdered on some of my stocks lately. I'll just have to hold onto them for a LONG time. I just purchased a few CALL options on AAPL and WMT today. I can't see either one staying that low.

Next support level is at 8,000. Sorry you missed my earlier post. http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/mo...ear-doing.html

I'm not surprised the market is down below 10K. I'm not worried either.

This is not a bad thing for the market to be down, especially if you have money to invest into it. People only cheer when the market is up. How do you buy low when the Dow is setting record high numbers? I know there are some out there who are going to be scared off by the low numbers. I say keep investing money into the market while it is low. When the market swings upward (and it will) then you will profit from it.

Is my 401k worth less today than in the past? Are my mutual funds worth less today than a year ago? Yes. But am I planning on cashing either one of them out in the near future? No. True, many portfolios have lost money IF they are cashed out today. Looking long-term I am confident my portfolios are going to be worth much, much more than if I hid my money under a mattress.

The biggest difference between the market today and the market 20 years ago is simple: it is the speed at which we receive information. In the 1980's the market swung high and low. Compared to today, the only difference was that you couldn't get updates as frequently and as easy as you can today. This affects emotions to a much greater degree and thus the behavior of the market. Sometimes it's better to not watch the market for days at a time. :)

Ummmm....Mission Accomplished?

More like "hope' and "change", as in hoping you have some change next year.:)

8,000 seems like a low shot of a support level. I'd think 9k would be before that. I bought a few CALLS on Apple when it was at $89. Sold when it hit $93. I didn't know it was going to shoot up to $97. Glad it did though. I purchased a few wal-mart calls around $56 per share. They've jumped and if tomorrow pulls ahead any which normally happens things might be looking up.

Maybe, but these events tend to last longer than most futures trading accounts. I certainly don't know, but around 8,000 is a recent historic support level. There are often more rallies in a bear market of a short violent nature than in a bull market.
I do think this is going to take months or years to play out.

8000 may not be so far fetched. In a tightening credit market, more and more businesses are slowing growth or contracting, leading to lay offs, less profits (or losses), and falling stock prices. But don't take my word for it. Jim Cramer believes stocks can fall another 20% before the market bottoms. He advises investors who need access to their money within the next 5 years to totally divest themselves of the stock market. His opinion can be seen at the following link.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/

I respect Jim Cramer, but I think this may be a little far-fetched. 5 years? So much can happen in less time than that.

But what if you do not need access to your money within the next 5 years? If you can afford to stay in and don't mind holding on for the long term, one could make a small (or large) fortune.

I for one am willing to place that bet. It seems like the wealthiest people in America did not become millionaires via the route of "playing it safe". 10 years from now I hope to be feeling thankful I stayed in while so many others pulled out.

I've seen it all; I'll have lots to tell my grandchildren.


Impeachment of a President
Loss of (2) STS space vehicles
Witnessed (2) Cat 5 hurricanes ( Andrew & Katrina)
WTC terrorist attacks
Remember when gas was < $1/gal.
Dow goes below 10K (Failure of rock solid financial institutions)



atp

I hope you guys are watching Cramer right now!!! It's hilarious. He realizes how much his opinion swings the market so he's specifically not saying the names and acknowledging it lol

TD:

Cramer is good.....but to say that he caused the market here in the U.S. to take a dive....IMHO, that's stretching it because by no means is he a Paul Volker and definitely not an Alan Greenspan.


Just my .02.



atp

I know he didn't that's part of what makes it funny. Cramer doesn't drive the entire market. It was funny watching him talk about a bank but not mention the name because he's afraid he'd cause a run on it.

However Cramer can make a stock fluctuate like no other. A senator is labeled with closing down Indymac don't think Cramer can't swing people to sell all their shares in certain institutions.

Yeah, you're right. I've watched on him on MSNBC's Financial Report (forgot the actual name of his show) and he can get really animated. LOL. :D

Caught him on the Today Show yesterday and today with Ann and Meredith respectively.



atp

Next stop-eight thousand.:)

I don't think I'd be smiling about that. Our economy is sinking at an increasing rate.

Morbid satisfaction in being right perhaps?

Jungle's got it right. The support is the 2002/2003 lows. Once the Dow broke 10,000 that became the only technical support level. So look for something around 7500 to 8000 as the near term low. It could happen as early as tomorrow. Then it's quite possible there will be a rally off that low of 5 to 10%. If that's followed by a re-test of the low ( a W shaped bottom on the chart ) then a base may have been built. It's hard to say now though with so much government intervention in the markets and nationalization of financial institutions.

My bet is that we'll be in a bear market for at least 3 years and possibly much longer. Most people seem to use the logic of the post 1982 era as their foundation for making statements about buying on the dip and dollar cost averaging. Use that logic for the 1967 to 1982 time frame and all you would have done is lose money to inflation as the value of your portfolio stagnated.

If you are young a long term sideways market isn't the end of the world. It would give you the opportunity to buy for many years at roughly the same price. When the market does turn up again you'd have a very good base to start from.

With the amount of negative sentiment in the market as indicated by S&P put options a "bear squeeze" could make for an even larger move up. The trick is timing it right. That means buying near the bottom and then selling near the top because it will inevitably fall again based on economic fundmentals and the ongoing financial turmoil.

That's my two cents.



Typhoonpilot



P.S. Gold did really well in the last big bear market, making it's high very near the end of that bear market. Have at least 5% of your portolio in gold.

I think a lot of what we saw today was driven mostly by fear and uncertainty. i.e., more emphasis on emotion than economics.

At $45, does anyone think Boeing will go any lower?

I even remember ToiletDuck I think it was, saying on here how $65 or something around there was way undervalued.

Here it is at $45...AAPL at $88...etc.

Anyone have an opinion?

My opinion is that catching a falling knife is a very dangerous game to play. Just ask those who bought C at $30 and WB at $14.



TP