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jungle 11-19-2008 02:09 PM

We Made the Top Ten!
Top 10 Worst Stock Market Crashes: Current Crash Is A Chart Buster
September 30, 2008 · No Comments
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) doubled in just a decade from 7,022 on 13 February 1997 to a peak of 14,164 on 9 October 2007. It was a Golden Decade of continuous growth in share values and economic prosperity. But, in the 12 months since last October, most of this growth has evaporated. We are almost back to where we started in 1997. Truly a decade of Boom to Bust!

Update 19 November, 2008: Events are still unfolding but, the market has reached a new low of 7996, a fall of 43.5%, from its all time peak on 9 October 2007….which now gets the current crash into the all time Top 10 crashes ….at number 8 (& edging number 7)

Most of the top 10 crashes happened over more than one year rather than over a few days (such as the 1987 Black Monday). Only data on stock market crashes after 1900 are included. 6 out of the top 11 crashes started in either September or November.

Worst Stock Market Crash: 1930-1932
This is the grand daddy of them all. Investors lost 86% of their money over this 813 day beast. This market crash combined with the 1929 crash, makes up the Great Depression. In just two months, September and October, the stock market had lost 40 percent of its value. Black Tuesday usually marks the point where the Roaring 20’s ended and the Great Depression started. The stock market continued to fall until bottoming out in July of 1932
If you had $1000 on 3 September 1929, it would have been worth only $108.14 (89.2% loss) by July 8th, 1932. Full recovery of this loss didn’t occur until 1954, 22 years later!
Date Started: 4/17/1930
Date Ended: 7/8/1932
Total Days: 813
Starting DJIA: 294.07
Ending DJIA: 41.22
Total Loss: -86.0%

2nd Worst Stock Market Crash: 1937-1938
Key events: Legacy of Great Depression, war scare and Wall street scandals
Date Started: 3/10/1937
Date Ended: 3/31/1938
Total Days: 386
Starting DJIA: 194.40
Ending DJIA: 98.95
Total Loss: -49.1%

3rd Worst Stock Market Crash: 1906-1907
Key events: The “Panic of 1907″ due to a credit crunch in New York, as well as gloom due to President Roosevelt’s antitrust drive
Date Started: 1/19/1906
Date Ended: 11/15/1907
Total Days: 665
Starting DJIA: 75.45
Ending DJIA: 38.83
Total Loss: -48.5%

4th Worst Stock Market Crash: 1929
Key events: End of the roaring twenties, and kicked off the Great Depression
Date Started: 9/3/1929
Date Ended: 11/13/1929
Total Days: 71
Starting DJIA: 381.17
Ending DJIA: 198.69
Total Loss: -47.9%

5th Worst Stock Market Crash: 1919 - 1921
Key events: Followed a post war boom, bursting of the first big tech bubble- the automobile sector (but after bottoming, this decade saw tremendous growth in the stock market and the economy, often called the roaring twenties)
Date Started: 11/3/1919
Date Ended: 8/24/1921
Total Days: 660
Starting DJIA: 119.62
Ending DJIA: 63.9
Total Loss: -46.6%

6th Worst Stock Market Crash: 1901 - 1903
Key events: Assassination of President William McKinley; a severe drought causing alarm about US food supplies
Date Started: 6/17/1901
Date Ended: 11/9/1903
Total Days: 875
Starting DJIA: 57.33
Ending DJIA: 30.88
Total Loss: -46.1%

7th Worst Stock Market Crash: 1973 - 1974
Key events: Vietnam war, Watergate scandal
Date Started: 1/11/1973
Date Ended: 12/06/1974
Total Days: 694
Starting DJIA: 1051.70
Ending DJIA: 577.60
Total Loss: -45.1%

8th Worst Stock Market Crash: 1939 - 1942
Key events: World War 2, attack on Pearl Harbour
Date Started: 9/12/1939
Date Ended: 4/28/1942
Total Days: 959
Starting DJIA: 155.92
Ending DJIA: 92.92
Total Loss: -40.4%

9th Worst Stock Market Crash: 1916 - 1917
Key events: US being drawn into World War 1
Date Started: 11/21/1916
Date Ended: 12/19/1917
Total Days: 393
Starting DJIA: 110.15
Ending DJIA: 65.95
Total Loss: -40.1%

10th Worst Stock Market Crash: 2000 - 2002
Key events: Tech bubble bursting, September 11th terrorist attack
Date Started: 1/15/2000
Date Ended: 10/9/2002
Total Days: 999
Starting DJIA: 11,792.98
Ending DJIA: 7,286.27
Total Loss: -37.8%


JetPiedmont 11-19-2008 05:23 PM

Jungle- What's the next support level for the S&P 500? Are we going to take out the Oct 9th 2002 low of 777?

jungle 11-19-2008 05:43 PM


Originally Posted by JetPiedmont (Post 502171)
Jungle- What's the next support level for the S&P 500? Are we going to take out the Oct 9th 2002 low of 777?

Looks like support is at 800 or so on the S&P and 8000 or so on the DOW, I don't worry about a few percent here and there. As most of you are aware support levels are like voodoo and in a sense self-fulfilling prophesy. Many traders believe in them and act accordingly. Serious breaks below historic support tend to really get things rolling downhill in a hurry.

Much of what happens in the near to long term is going to depend on government economic policy and how much harm or good investors believe it will do, speed of recovery will be highly dependent on intelligent economic policy. We haven't seen very much of that lately.

Never buy at the bottom or sell at the top, the odds of getting it right are slim. The odds of calling the top and the bottom are impossible.
I think most are keeping their powder dry and waiting until direction is a bit more clear. The classic pattern is a sideways movement at the end of a long drop while people decide on a direction.

Well, today support was broken and now we are at #2 as far as the all time top ten crashes. Best to fasten your chin strap.

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