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I dunno….

Assume
• $0.66 and $12.97 to purchase an incandescent and LED bulb, respectively.
• $0.14/kWh, increasing at an annual rate of 2.5% per year
• Incandescent uses 60W, LED uses 12W
• The money saved by purchasing an incandescent can be invested at an annual rate of 10%.
• 5 hours of use per day, every day for 12 years

Ignoring the time value of money, the total cost of purchasing and operating the bulbs are $217 for incandescent and $56 for LED.

In consideration of the “investment” of $12.31 you make in the LED bulb and the time value of money, the LED bulb provides a return of about $75 through energy savings.

In this scenario, we are ignoring:
• The fact that nationwide electricity prices are higher than $0.14/kWh
• The fact that the incandescent bulb will likely need to be replaced several times throughout the 12 year period, whereas the LED bulb is advertised to last at least this long. (I admit that this remains to be seen.)
• Additional savings may be realized by households that use air conditioning in the summer, as incandescent bulbs throw off a good deal of heat.
• In theory, lower energy consumption means less pollution and other externalities that result from the production of electricity.

LED bulbs look alright to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by waflyboy (Post 1600003)

Thank you for replying to my post. A couple of points:

--The gov't website says the US residential average is less than $0.12/kWh

EIA - Electricity Data

--Why does the price increase at 2.5%/year? It has been largely flat for decades

Table 8.10 Average Retail Prices of Electricity, 1960-2011 (Cents per Kilowatthour, Including Taxes)

--If you can invest the annual savings from the LED bulb, can't you also invest the money you didn't spend on the LED?

--I don't think you can assume the same usage. People drive more miles on fuel efficient cars.

--If LED usage would reduce AC costs in the summer, wouldn't they increase heating costs in the winter?

These reservations notwithstanding, the LED is clearly is a nice technological advance over the traditional bulbs. But whether or not to use an LED is an economic decision that is best made by individuals and not bureaucrats or politicians.

WW

You make good points, and I have no sensible rebuttal for most of them. (I did modify the assumptions in my model in accordance with your recommendations (ie energy price, no price inflation) and LEDs still look better economically, despite the high purchase price. Now the CFL-LED argument might be a closer case, economically speaking.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winged Wheeler (Post 1600853)

But whether or not to use an LED is an economic decision that is best made by individuals and not bureaucrats or politicians.

On this point we certainly agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by waflyboy (Post 1601125)

A modest and rational statement--very rare on the internet. Thank you.

WW

But whether or not to use an LED is an economic decision that is best made by individuals and not bureaucrats or politicians.

I personally like the swirly bulbs and the LED bulbs, but I do agree with your sentiment. I don't think that the government should force incandescent bulbs into extinction. Let people buy them if they want.

What is really peeving me off is the whole ethanol push. I have heard (and need confirmation) that the government is going to push for even higher ethanol amounts in our auto fuel. F that! :eek: I like non oxygenated fuel for a number of reasons, not least of which is *better* fuel economy. I have been thinking of starting a thread on ethanol versus non oxygenated fuel.....

I put six Cree LED lights in our master bath sometime last year at a cost of about $10/ea. Last weekend I noticed one doesn't work and quickly see the bulb glass had 'disconnected' from the base of the bulb (the glass didn't even break). Instead of 22.1 years as indicated on the package, it only lasted one year. :confused:

Don't get me started on that ethanol garbage. I fill both of my cars up each week using non-ethanol 93 octane, which is running about $4.29/gal here.

Both my wife and I actually prefer incandescent to both CFC and LED lighting... If you don't leave your lights on when you don't actually need them, the savings aren't that big. (most people don't use their lights for 5 hours a day). Also my understanding is that with CFC bulbs it takes time for the ballasts to warm up, and during that time they are inefficient.