Originally Posted by SayAlt
(Post 2055887)
Back to the OP topic...
Obamacare + unchecked gov't spending driving up the national debt and hindering economic growth is going to cause massive problems in the price of equities going forward. The greatest con of the last century is the one played on uneducated Americans by telling them that the government is going to take their guns, their church, and their money if they don't get rid of unions and pay executives or "job creators" 200% bonuses every few years. |
Originally Posted by SayAlt
(Post 2055884)
http://www.louiseoneillauthor.com/wp...rying-baby.jpg
In point of fact, only true idiots (read: brain-washed collectivists) are entitlement-minded and think they shouldn't have to pay for goods and services they use. Want free health-care? Renounce your US citizenship and leave the US. I should not have to pay for your healthcare, only my own. Fortunately, the grave error that is Obamacare is about to be rectified, if only because it is going to fail all on it's own (see: failing state exchanges and insurers dropping out). Btw, you are so confused you don't even know what you are talking about. First you say... And then follow that right up with... Ummm...since you haven't figured it out, genius, Obamacare REGULATES private sector healthcare, not deregulates it. Geez you collectivists are total loons. You comments betray the closed mindedness of a typical right wing True Believer and read almost as if they were cut-and-pasted from the talk-shows of Rush, Hannity, Beck, and Levy. You DO realize that by living within a society, you are - by definition - a collectivist. Healthcare is an aspect of survival of the society you live within. Now, if you decide to buy a few thousand acres of land somewhere, fence it, cut yourself off from all society, well then...you might then be able to say that you don't live within a society - a collective. I know, the idea of that might actually cause your head to explode in denial. :eek::rolleyes: |
The RJET comment was a joke.
As for moving pronto, that wasn't an option, but I appreciate the heart-felt advice. Trust me when I say I wouldn't delay a day more than necessary.
Originally Posted by higney85
(Post 2055337)
Never. Don't drip your money in the same pool of you own industry. You may think you know it, but by your posts, you really don't. Steer clear.
If you did know the industry, you wouldn't even ask. That should answer your question. And RJET? Unless you short it, I'd steer clear. In the end, you need to decide where to go, and move pronto. You have been asking questions for weeks. Seniority matters. Pick you bed, and get comfy. A delay only delays all future prospects. A week is one thing to decide, a month can make a huge difference in QOL and movement. Personally, after a merger, a month was 500+ numbers. Couldn't help it at the time due to an age requirement for hiring, but it has been the difference of hundreds of days off and significant QOL. Make a plan, and execute. |
The Fed Is Freaked Out by Larry Kudlow January 29, 2016 Early in the new year, on Sunday, January 3, Federal Reserve vice chair Stanley Fischer delivered a hawkish speech to the American Economic Association. Completely misreading the economy, which is woefully weak while inflation is virtually nil, Fischer strongly hinted that the Fed would be raising its target rate by a quarter of a percent every quarter for the next three years. The next day the S&P 500 dropped 1.5 percent. In the week that followed, the broad index fell 6 percent. The week after that it fell over 2 percent. During that two-week period, the Dow Jones dropped 1,437 points. The dollar went up. Oil plunged 21 percent. Raw-material commodities dropped. And credit risk spreads in the high-yield junk market rose substantially. Actually, it was a global event, as stock markets around the world plunged. Utter chaos. This past week, the Fed retreated in its FOMC policy statement. For the first time in a long while, it didn’t bother with a risk assessment between inflation and employment. The whole statement had a much softer tone. It reminded me of the prevent defense of the old Bill Parcells New York Giants. Putting it more starkly, I’d say the Fed is completely freaked out by financial markets that are turning against it. The central bank says its policies are “data driven.” But the recent FOMC statement suggests the Fed is looking at everything. It has a hundred indicators — domestic, international, jobs, and inflation. In truth, it doesn’t know what its next move is going to be because it can’t read the economy. Fed policy is opaque, confusing, and rudderless. Take a look at the new GDP report for the fourth quarter of last year. A mere 0.7 percent growth. Across 2015, real GDP grew 1.8 percent. It’s not a recession. But any shock could push us into recession. Business investment fell. Commercial building fell. Inventories fell. Inflation came in less than 1 percent. Nominal GDP — real output plus inflation — registered a small 1.5 percent gain. In normal times, money GDP should be between 4 and 5 percent. Perhaps most troublesome to the stock market and the economy is the decline in corporate profits. According to most estimates, profits are set to drop for the third straight quarter while business sales look to be falling for the fourth straight quarter. Add this to less than 1 percent economic growth, and the risk of recession is surely rising. The recession threat is a risk, not a fact. With ultra-weak economic growth and ultra-low inflation, how could the Fed, or any central bank, think about tightening policy? For Fed policy makers to tell us the economy is healthy is a complete misreading of the situation. Here's a little hint for you uneducated types...no, the stock market isn't an indicator of how healthy the economy is, per se. It is far MORE a reflection of how great the hype surrounding it happens to be at any given moment. That the Fed has unreservedly been robbing America of it's future fiscal health to reward the "too-big-to-fail" banks tells you everything you need to know about what is to come next. And guess who nominated those who have run the Fed since Greenspan? |
As usual, the Financial Times "gets it". I'll just include the highlights of the piece, but the irony in the opener is simply amazing!
Federal Reserve: Credibility on the line As Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, was preparing last month for the first increase in US interest rates for a decade, protesters in New York’s financial district were holding a candlelight vigil bemoaning the end of near-zero monetary policy. In the crowd bearing illuminated signs saying “what recovery?” and “wage growth is good” was Mauricio Jimenez, a 44-year-old construction worker from Queens, who warned against the move as he stood outside the New York Fed. “It was a mistake,” he said this week, arguing the central bank should have paid more attention to working families and minorities who had seen paltry wage growth, and that the Fed should reverse course. “We are the people most affected.” Complaints about the prospect of higher rates had long been levelled by left-of-centre groups such as Fed Up, which arranged the protest, as well as Democratic politicians including Bernie Sanders. Have you got that kiddos? The leftists want to tell anyone who will listen to their pablum that the "you-know-who recovery" is going GREAT, and yet AT THE SAME TIME they were protesting any increase in the Fed Funds rate! Two diametrically opposed positions! Now, on to the key takeaways...
Federal Reserve: Credibility on the line - FT.com You-know-who and the Fed have been priming the pump ever since he took office, and they could no longer claim the economy was good and getting better while the Fed kept rates at near zero. Finally, with their credibility on the line, they were forced to increase rates to maintain their "narrative" late last year... ...right into the teeth of the next financial crisis, that is itself a direct result of kicking the fiscal can down the road from 2008. Remember when leftists were telling everyone that "experience doesn't matter"?? The fact that many were pilots is a massive embarrassment to the profession. |
US layoffs surge to 6-month high Layoffs surged in January to the highest levels since July as employers in the retail and energy sectors pulled out the pink slips, according to a private survey out Thursday. U.S.-based companies announced 75,114 planned job cuts last month, up more than 200 percent from a 15-year low in December, :eek: according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That figure was also 42 percent higher from a year ago. US layoffs surge to 6-month high |
Originally Posted by SayAlt
(Post 2062623)
Also notable that Venezuela is on the verge of an unavoidable default that will rival the 2004 Argentina crisis, thanks to the idiotic ideology of Hugo Chavez.
So which is it? Economic problems are the result of the ideology of a long ago dead Chavez? Or, in your first referenced country, due to its high level of free market capitalism? (that's the first level shallow question) Or are Venezuela's issues with a plummeting price for it's principle commodity? Are some of the layoffs announced not actually going to occur, but are rather a tool to maipulate stock price/trades for the finance sector/class? Are they meant to browbeat and cow a workforce? Or is the first a classic example of the concept of creative destruction as espoused by the likes of Schumpeter/Friedman/Chicago School of economics? How so?...Jan. also saw the creation of 151,000 jobs and the lowest unemplyment rate since 2008. Being a champion of free market capitalism I would think you would be celebrating such news, the suffering of the 75,000 losing their jobs being a small price to pay for this triumph of the market. I debated replying...as it just goes around in circles and never touches the true issues of what happens to the worlds economy. (hint...money/finance doesn't drive wealth, it is only created by labor(nod to Adam Smith) and resources (nod to Catton). Everthing else lives off the surplus of labor and resources. (one minor deviation...finance can create an illusion of wealth in the form of more money by redistributing it from one to another; oft times by fraud, deceit or outright theft)) Every successful society is a mixture of Capitalism and Socialism. Including the USA. Some things lend themselves better to a collective solution where the profit motive is subserviant to society at large. National Defence is one. By the end of the 18th century and the rise of the nation state it had been pretty much settled that a collective form of the military with alliegience to a nation/people was superior to privately controlled armies whose loyalties changed with circumstances. Hence, we have the largest and most powerful part of most countries being a military organized under the precepts of socialism. The USA included. Also some things lend themselves better to the profit motive. The whole "better mouse trap concept". It is not an "either/or" reality. The sooner we, as either a country or humanity in general, grasp this the sooner we can grapple with the real threats to industrial civilization as we know it. Start thinking critically and at a much deeper level. |
More great news! /sarc
Citibank is now largely agreeing with the RBOS in the OP (but is trying to be as positive as it can in the process). Citibank: World economy seems trapped in 'death spiral' 2 hours ago The global economy seems trapped in a "death spiral" that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned. Some analysts — including those at Citi — have turned bearish on the world economy this year, following an equity rout in January and weaker economic data out of China and the U.S. "The world appears to be trapped in a circular reference death spiral," Citi strategists led by Jonathan Stubbs said in a report on Thursday. "Stronger U.S. dollar, weaker oil/commodity prices, weaker world trade/petrodollar liquidity, weaker EM (and global growth)... and repeat. Ad infinitum, this would lead to Oilmageddon, a 'significant and synchronized' global recession and a proper modern-day equity bear market." Stubbs added that policymakers would likely attempt to "regain credibility" in the coming weeks and months. "This is fundamental to avoiding a proper/full global recession and dangerous disorder across financial markets. The stakes are high, perhaps higher than they have ever been in the post-World War II era," he said. Citi: World economy trapped in 'death spiral' |
Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 2063387)
Think critically. Jan. saw the creation of 151,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate since 2008. And nevermind that 94M+ Americans are unemployed (with another 50M on welfare) and the labor participation rate is the worst since the Carter administration, right? Heyo, the unemployment rate is the best since 2008, eh? Think critically, you say??? Then there's this little tidbit... What jobs? BLS says 665,000 job LOSSES 2/05/16 <------See that date right there? New Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that there were 665,000 jobs lost in January, :eek::eek: a blunt finding that confuses the heralded report that 151,000 jobs were created in January in non-farm payrolls. Analysts note that there are several ways to count jobs created and lost... What jobs? BLS says 665,000 job LOSSES | Washington Examiner Oooopsie! Someone better tell the WH the BLS isn't carrying it's statistical water anymore. |
Max, I wouldn't trumpet comparisons to 2008 too proudly, especially given the length of the current business cycle uptrend. Ironic.
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