tahoejace

Correct. The legacy contract awarded to both Minden and Neptune this year is for the 2013 fire season with one-year options for up to four additional years, which the Feds may or may not choose to exercise after this, or any other year. In any case, after the five years are up, the legacies without NextGen contracts will be parked for good.

So, the difference between this contract and those of years past is that while previously there was always some expectation of a new contract every 3-5 years, now the legacy operators without follow-on NextGen contracts will not have such a future to rely upon. This is it for them. So, while Minden has a future beyond 2017, at present Neptune does not.

The question remains, what changed behind the scenes that prompted Neptune to withdraw their protest? I'm betting the Feds already know a few of the NextGen tankers won't meet the contract terms this year. If that's the case, that would open the door for another round of bids to fill the shortfall. I suspect a little birdie told Neptune that if they drop their protest (and possibly fix the areas of concern some have raised with their tank design) they would be added to the NextGen contract in lieu of another soon-to-be delinquent operator.

Pure speculation, of course.

JohnBurke

As it has always been. No change, business as usual.

You say this based on what? New contracts aren't open for bidding until the present ones end, so the lack of continuation in contracting is normal. there are never promises for the next round of contracts. The government puts out the requests, and contractors bid.

Neptune has nearly the only game in town, at present. There isn't much else out there. They're also running some of the only "next gen" equipment on the line. Others who have "next gen" contracts don't have aircraft at present to fill them; just suggestions of equipment that they may or may not be able to field.

Presently Neptune's aircraft are working the line hard, alongside every other available resource.

JohnnyG

We should all place some faith in Neptune. They've proven their ability to perform and adapt many times before, and they truly are a great team of guys who provide a great service to our country.

They will be just fine.

tahoejace

Sorry for the novel that follows, but I didn't want to just give a half-assed answer. Grab a cup of coffee and settle in...

Based on the USFS's own stated intent:
The variable there, of course, is what does the USFS believe are "adequate numbers?" The Large Airtanker Modernization Strategy recommends 18-28, so we could guess that they're probably shooting for the low end of that scale to cross the "adequate" threshold.

You're absolutely right, but as it stands right now, the legacy contract Neptune is on runs out after a max of five years and will not be offered again. The NextGen contracts that have already been awarded, and which Neptune did not get, are for up to TEN years. If things go as planned, there will not even be another request for Neptune to bid on until 2023. By that time, Neptune will have been off contract for at least five years, and probably out of business.

The DC-10 is already flying fires, Minden's BAe-146 is in testing as we speak and should be on contract before the end of this season, and Coulson's C-130 is nearly ready and expected to begin testing this month. No idea how close the others are, but I think we would all be surprised if any of them were flying fires this season. It would be reasonable to think, though, that all seven could be on contract by sometime next season. In addition:

The second DC-10 is already flying fires on a "call when needed" contract. Expect that aircraft to be added to the exclusive-use contract next year. Both Minden and 10 Tanker have additional aircraft in the pipleline already. By the end of next season, NextGen operators could be flying nine or more airplanes on contract with three more years to add more airplanes before the limit of the legacy contract is reached. Again, what does the USFS consider "adequate numbers?"

I don't claim to have all the answers, I'm just reading what's been put in ink and laying out what appears to be the Feds' intent moving forward. The contracts they have awarded indicate that any equipment operating on a legacy contract will be put to pasture no later than five years from now. That includes Neptune's BAe-146's. The Feds have awarded other contracts to those companies they believe to be the future of aerial firefighting. For whatever reason, Neptune was not among them.

In other words, having NextGen equipment means nothing without a contract to operate it in the future. Likewise, having a NextGen contract means nothing if you don't have airplanes to fly. However, you're in a better position for the future when you have a contract in hand. If (and that's a very big IF) airtanker modernization proceeds as planned, there is no avenue remaining for Neptune to operate even their BAe-146's beyond the current five year legacy contract. Do I believe the modernization effort will go as planned, or that all of the companies on the new contract will meet their obligations on schedule? Hell no. Which makes the last 30 minutes of my life a complete waste of time, but you asked and I have tried to give you a thoughtful answer.

So, what happens when one or more of the companies now under the new contract fail to deliver? Does that open the door for Neptune to offer their -146's beyond the current contract? For their sake, I sincerely hope so.

No doubt. They do good work, it's a shame they're on the outside looking in with the new contracts. Luckily, with all the moving parts of this new deal, something's going to give, so their situation is likely to change. My whole point with prior posts and this one was to point out that RIGHT NOW, with the contracts that have been awarded and the stated intent of the modernization program, Neptune is dead in the water after their current contract is up. Budget actions, companies failing to meet schedules, bad fire seasons, etc. will likely change that, though. Neptune's future depends on their ability to get their foot in the NextGen door when that happens, NOT with an extension of their legacy contract. Sooner rather than later, that WILL go away.

I'm with you there, I've got nothing against them at all. In fact, I have a lot of respect and admiration for them and what they do. I am simply taking a step back and looking at this situation realistically without any investment in either outcome and realizing that given the information available publicly right now, things don't look good for them. That could easily change, however.

I sincerely hope so.

Cheers!


Sources:
USFS News Release, May 6, 2013
USFS to issue contracts for 3 next-gen air tankers
Neptune drops their protest of awards for air tanker contracts
Conversion of Coulson’s C-130 nearing completion

NoJoy

Thanks for taking the time to post this ^^^, good info! I hope Neptune can make the necessary adjustments to survive and grow in the near future. Time will tell how things might look it seems. Maybe will have a better picture by the end of this summer.

JohnBurke

I spent the day dropping on Colorado fires. While the VLAT DC10 was supposed to show up, it got weathered in at Pueblo, but a number of SEATS and P2V's did some fine work.

tahoejace

Ditto & let's hope so.

tahoejace

Good work. It's definitely an "all hands on deck" kind of year. Everybody is certainly doing the best they can, given the circumstances.

JohnBurke

Neptune is planning on fielding 10 or more BAE146's within the next five years, and is not planning to continue the P2V's. With the airframe life limits that were applied upon the return to service post-T130 & T123, a couple of the current airframes won't even last the five years before they hit their limits and head for scrap.

Not all the legacy contracts are 5 year; some are one year renewable, and some are three. The P2V's will hold out until the BAE146's are online. With two flying and a new generation of tank in the third about to seek approval, they're on their way. Presently T40 has dropped more retardant than the P2's are dropping on average (by a considerable margin), and has been a lot more productive.

The nextgen equipment that's presently such a hot ticket offers promise, but those contracts come with a life limit. If the operators can't field the equipment in time (which requires both air tanker board approval and FAA approval, those contracts will go away.

tahoejace

That's not how it's been characterized in the press, or by the USFS themselves. But if Neptune somehow got a different deal than what has been widely reported, then good on 'em.

That's true, but until those operators actually do fail to deliver, those contracts will remain in place. So, Neptune has to hope another operator fails in order for them to get another chance.