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Old 02-28-2019, 01:11 PM
  #3421  
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Originally Posted by Phoenix21 View Post
Junior PDT new hire is currently looking at 113 months to flow.
About 101 here....
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Old 02-28-2019, 01:20 PM
  #3422  
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i was told when i was hired about five years, and it’s looking like it will be exactly 5 years for me, unless they don’t take anyone in the fall.
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Old 03-01-2019, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Phoenix21 View Post
Junior PDT new hire is currently looking at 113 months to flow.
have anything to back that up?
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Old 03-01-2019, 08:46 AM
  #3424  
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Originally Posted by standardrate View Post
have anything to back that up?
My guess is his seniority number divided by 6.

Maybe seniority number minus 88 divided by 7 would be imperfect but more realistic. One pilot per month outside the flow attrition.

Of course there are an impending 80 or so retirees coming up within two years as well.
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted by ArmyRWP2018 View Post
My guess is his seniority number divided by 6.

Maybe seniority number minus 88 divided by 7 would be imperfect but more realistic. One pilot per month outside the flow attrition.

Of course there are an impending 80 or so retirees coming up within two years as well.
just curious to what math is used to get those numbers... for my own info. does anyone know how many pilots get an AA training date per month?
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:12 AM
  #3426  
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Originally Posted by standardrate View Post
just curious to what math is used to get those numbers... for my own info. does anyone know how many pilots get an AA training date per month?
Do you mean other than at Piedmont? Piedmont’s contract is 6 per AA class. Don’t expect that to change until after negotiations in 2023.

General numbers for AA are 60% flow from WOs, 30% military FW Pilots, 10% Off the street hires.

For example 2017. 548 total AA hires. 263 Envoy Flows, 52 PSA Flows, 45 PDT Flows.

Off the Off the Street Hires the vast majority are military FW Pilots. About 50 non military street hires.

The 2018 projection was 720 total AA hires with around 420 flows and rest street hires.

Last edited by ArmyRWP2018; 03-01-2019 at 09:52 AM.
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:41 AM
  #3427  
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Originally Posted by ArmyRWP2018 View Post
Do you mean other than at Piedmont? Piedmont’s contract is 6 per AA class. Don’t expect that to change until after negotiations in 2023.

General numbers for AA are 60% flow from WOs, 30% military FW Pilots, 10% Off the street hires.

For example 2017. 548 total AA hires. 263 Envoy Flows, 52 PSA Flows, 45 PDT Flows.

Off the Off the Street Hires the vast majority are military FW Pilots. About 50 non military street hires.

The 2018 projection was 720 total AA hires with around 420 flows and rest street hires.
2017 total AA hires were 645 hires,
360 (56%) Flows - 263 Envoy, 52 PSA, 45 PDT
225 (35%) OTS Mil
60 (9%) OTS Civ

The 2018 projected total hires was 900 total. Actual was 939.
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Old 03-01-2019, 01:14 PM
  #3428  
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Originally Posted by standardrate View Post
have anything to back that up?
Yah, math.

760 = the junior most pilot

83 is the pilot waiting to flow.

6 flows/month

760-83 = 677

677/6 = 112.8 months assuming 12 months of hiring flows a year
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Old 03-01-2019, 02:04 PM
  #3429  
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Originally Posted by Phoenix21 View Post
Yah, math.

760 = the junior most pilot

83 is the pilot waiting to flow.

6 flows/month

760-83 = 677

677/6 = 112.8 months assuming 12 months of hiring flows a year
2018 was the first and only year american had classes every month... most years it was 9 to 11 classes a year.. sooooo don't count on 12 months of flows a year
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Old 03-01-2019, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by OpMidClimax View Post
2018 was the first and only year american had classes every month... most years it was 9 to 11 classes a year.. sooooo don't count on 12 months of flows a year
Indeed. Years with months where AA doesn’t take flows will offset outside attrition from the seniority list over the long term.

Prospective New Hires should probably plan on having 9.5 years to flow but should be aware that it could be as long as 11 years if AA only takes flows 10 months a year, or 12.5 years if they only take flows nine months a year.

AA is already acknowledging a lack of training capacity to meet demand for transitions from sundown fleets and openings caused by retirements. How much and how often they shut down new hire classes will be the big X factor in any flow timeline during the next 10 years.
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