Attrition
 

Is there any easy way to track attrition? Any way we could post monthly attrition numbers here? Always seems like people are coming up with different numbers. Also, what number do you guys look at when looking at seniority (sequence or seniority)? Whats the difference?

Seniority list... were were 755 pilots beginning of the year... now 705... that's contraction..

We will be 650 this time next year, in my opinion.

My understanding is that seniority number is updated 1-2 times a year. Sequence is just how many people are in a particular list. (For example if you look at ca’s in Phl the sequence number tops out about 200 or so cause that’s how many Phl captains we have on the list. So while there are 705 pilots total in sequence the highest seniority number is around 780. If you go through every couple months and track sequence vs seniority you can see where people are leaving. (First six months, year 1, year 2, etc) As for a flow projection my way to do it is sequence and include those on leave, minus those that have flowed or elected not to flow. Be interesting to see when they actually update the seniority numbers.

Last update of Seniority numbers was early July 2019.

Current Seniority vs Sequence and Difference

Seniority Sequence Difference

99 65 34

200 163 37

300 256 44

400 351 49

500 443 57

600 541 59

700 636 64

780 705 75

The ‘so what’ of this is the difference between any number and the 34 at Seniority 99 represents outside attrition over 5 months (July 9- December 5)

For example, at 780 it is 8.2 people attrition outside of the flow per month average.

At 300 it is only 2 people per month attrition outside of the flow per month.

Any estimate is based on your seniority/sequence number minus the current flow point on the list and the changing rates of outside attrition as you get closer to flow plus the 66 or so flows per year.

Seniority numbers mean nothing at pdt. It's the sequence number that matters.

The email was put out that flow was not going to decrease a few months ago when the number was around 725. Curious to see if they are looking at lowering it since we are at 705

IMO, not a chance of that happening unless they want to watch our mid to lower seniority pilots flee at a much faster rate than they are. The flow is already practically meaningless for anyone recently hired. You can't recruit on the promise of a 12 year flow. The company going back on their word at this point would be very harmful.