Originally Posted by blackhawk88 (Post 2591469)

Agree, but I dont think we'll be furloughing anytime soon. Our growth has been stagnating too. We aren't getting that any new flying or increased block hours (According to "Schedule Highlights" on myPSA). CA reserve times are increasing too; safe to say it takes about 3 years minimum to hold line as a Captain.

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Originally Posted by irrelevant (Post 2591417)

I'm not certain what the math works out to be at PDT at present, but I know that if someone had gone there a year or two back, they would flow to AA faster than someone who had chosen to go to PSA four years ago. PDT was (and I believe still is) flowing a higher percentage of their overall seniority list than PSA is.

If flowing to AA is a priority for someone, they need to find out what the total number of pilots on a prospective W.O.'s seniority list is, and what the number of pilots flowing annually is. The flows are not created equally.

PSA appears to be at 1,782 pilots - 44 in-process flows = 1,738 total pilots...not including the most recent new-hire class that will have around 30 in it. At 110/year flowing (AA usually doesn't hire one month around the holidays), that's just a 6.2% flow rate annually - when it used to be right at 10% back when they had the preferential interview.

The other thing to consider is PSA, under current fleet plans of 150 aircraft, is pretty much done hiring for growth. PSA's "president" just a week or so back sent out a communication that the company expects that 150 aircraft number to be solid. You don't need more than 1,800 pilots to operate 150 aircraft. 1,600 is probably a more reasonable number.

Airlines have a well-known history of hiring until they start furloughing. I don't think that's a real concern at present with PSA, but the math fails to support additional gains in the total number of pilots on the seniority list. Hiring will continue indefinitely, but it may in the near future be at a reduced rate, as PSA transitions from growth mode, to just managing attrition.

This will also take some pressure off the company to increase pay and quality of life.

Originally Posted by MarkVI (Post 2591155)

I spent my first career doing something I truly enjoyed, but something that involved very long days in the hot Florida sun. Transitioning to Aviation included several long years of incredibly challenging work.

I understand your perspective, and appreciate you sharing it. That being said, there was a time when I would have flown for free. In fact, in certain scenarios I still do. I think I sit on the other side of the fence on a lot of this stuff.

I'm certainly one of those "move up or get out" individuals. It's how every other industry makes progress, how the military recruits new leadership, and how progress does, and shouldwork. I'm not concerned with someone's comfort based on their seniority. The moment you stop bettering yourself as a professional, and an aviator, you become a roadblock to those below you.

As far as pay goes, become a captain. You don't like your paychecks, fly more and upgrade -- simple as that. It might still be below market rate but at the end of the day an entry level FO at PSA is guaranteed to make more than an industry-average CFI, or an industry average 91/135 FO. You'll get a pay-improvement just for becoming an FO. And a PSA CA can make easily twice as much as the FO sitting next to him if they're willing to put in the effort. So, don't like the pay? Stop being an FO. Don't like the pay as a CA? Put out your applications. As I see it, Flow just sits in my back pocket as a nice little promise. I'm not content with waiting for it. I'll move on when I'm ready -- and I'm sure as heck not going to sit around as an FO my whole career (and if I DID, I would be certian to understand that any pay/QoL issues that arise from that decision are my own doing).

Now, I agree that the idea of a regional job as a stepping-stone is a short sighted, minimized viewpoint that engages heavily in the 'distant-elephant' mindset. You're flying the same SIDS to the same STARS, carring paying passengers, managing a technically complex aircraft. That being said, my previous statement stands. Move up or get out.

If an FO doesn't like a regional, work hard to become a CA, and send out your resumes. If you want to sit around and wait for flow, then don't complain that you don't have it as good as mainline -- you chose to sit around and wait for flow.

I'm not saying the regionals aren't implicit in issues with pay and QoL, but for many we do see it as a stepping stone, we aren't okay getting comfortable in the right seat, and we will work hard to get ourselves to mainlines long before that flow date arrives.

I came to PSA regardless of the issues expressed here from QoL and pay. I did tons of research. I could go to E9 and wait months on end for a class date (and seniority), I could go to MQ and deal with large amounts of displaced pilots and a series of other challenges, I could give up and go to Mesa, Republic, Skywest, or TransState. However, anyone looking from the outside in sees PSA as the quickest growing regional fleet, with an expansive regional route map, backed by a huge mainline parent, with SAP (for now) that no one else gets, in a wide variety of domiciles that are all decently commutable, with immediate start and seniority dates. So, they don't pay the best and their reserve sucks. Comes with the job. Not but a decade ago pilots would have given their left leg to sit right seat in a regional.

The hedonic treadmill is strong in aviation, mostly because a lot of career pilots don't realize what everyone on the ground has to put up with for a decent paycheck. Sweat my rear off for a miniscule paycheck despite the coorporate headaches that came with it? I'll work to better myself and get out of the negative feeback loop. I understand the jobs not what you want, but you're lucky and blessed as heck that you're a US Pilot flying an airconditioned jet around the east coast and don't have to build iPhones on an assembly line in China. No one is born with a promise of success. Simply by being a pilot, you're far ahead of most of this planet. Work for a better job, but never forget how grateful you should be for what you have.
Even if the whole deck isn't fair, it's a lot better for you than it could be, and a little gratitude goes a long way.

Regardless, I'll take the office view for now and grow as a professional. I'll take all the opportunites the Company has to offer, learn from them, and move on -- greatful that I'm sitting where I am to begin with.

Originally Posted by 272922 (Post 2591599)

Apparently we had a pretty major spike in attrition last month, hopefully the start of a trend.

Also, your staffing numbers overlook the fact that every pilot bidding R1 can drop to 65 hours any and every month they chose. In addition to things like flow, training, etc, they're going to try and keep growing the airline.

Originally Posted by ZeroTT (Post 2591828)

Thoughts on why they have hired up to 1,800 with 127 planes now? Assuming (?reasonable) that hours will grow proportionate to airframes, there is still 18% fleet growth left over the next 12-24 month. That would suggest more like 2100 pilots total for 150 planes.

yeah, it makes sense to be ahead rather than behind, but that's a long time to carry a few hundred extra pilots.

Originally Posted by JayBee (Post 2591872)

Merging with Piedmont.

Heard from a Junior Flight attendant that heard it from a Ramp Worker in SAN that is cousins with a retired Flight Engineer who's daughter works in payroll at PSA.

:cool:

Originally Posted by JayBee (Post 2591872)

Merging with Piedmont.

Heard from a Junior Flight attendant that heard it from a Ramp Worker in SAN that is cousins with a retired Flight Engineer who's daughter works in payroll at PSA.

:cool:

Originally Posted by ZeroTT (Post 2591828)

yeah, it makes sense to be ahead rather than behind, but that's a long time to carry a few hundred extra pilots.