TransWorld

Pretty much the way I see it.

PeakEGT

Every LCA I flew with had a class date with someone other than AA. I’m hearing of that old B scale seat lock thing coming back.

ZeroTT

Even if the WO’s get merged into AA, which would come with some fences, people can still leave for every other carrier. AA won’t be able to get anywhere with a plan people don’t like

saltbae

Everyone that didn’t qualify for the new hire FO 15K bonus is already filling out apps with LCC’s and majors. They won’t be around for even 2 years

JayBee

No, what's mind boggling is that people can't grasp the concept of - you can keep them from leaving by increasing the flow OR you can lose them to their competitor. We'll never see how many turned down the $30k for Reasons™ but I'm willing to bet it was a lot more than they hoped for.

JMHO but if there was an actual honest to goodness ~5 year flow there would be a line out the door of new hires... not that it would keep people from applying outside the flow but just for the "career insurance" factor.

On top of all that, hearing talk in the streets, people aren't showing up for new hire class at AA supposedly. The reasons being, the **** contract and **** financial position AA is in. But that is just a Rumor©

Approach1260

I mean how hard would it be for AA to just say that the only way to get hired there is by working at one of their regionals, or being a military special case? So any civilian who wants AA has to go through the wholly owneds, and the flow becomes directly linked to how much they want to hire.

Like you said the regionals are going to lose pilots one way or another, the only option is do they go to AA or the competition.

TallFlyer

Eh, I think at this point the horse is out of the barn on trying to keep people, especially as outside hiring has dramatically accelerated. So there is no longer an “OR,” as you put it; a flow increase now would be in addition to the new normal of attrition as we already have it, as evidenced by guys already 3-4 months from flow taking class dates elsewhere.

Since the metrics that the brain trust in DAY is judged on is operating the small corner of AAG that they’re entrusted with, adding to their attrition headaches is not something you’re gonna see them do, because staffing mainline isn’t their problem.

AA, for their part, seems to be dramatically increasing their potential hiring pool by looking at no degree or no PIC applicants that they might not have done otherwise, including more from PSA, so HR on that end can do an end run around flow numbers all they want and DAY can just try to white knuckle it through.

We’ll see how that works in the end. But if you’re at a WO and DON’T have an app in, regardless of your quals or what demographic group you are, you’re selling yourself short.


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FlyGuy2021

Not to mention how many pilots are leaving AA to go to other carriers. If already being at AA won't stop them from leaving to go to UPS, United, or FedEx, more pay at a regional certainly won't stop people from leaving.

Pretty famous right now...a 9 year FO just quit to go to UPS. 3 resigned during the most recent indoc class. And only 29 in class today. That's how things are going at the mainline that everyone is wanting to flow to. Worse work rules than you have at the regionals right now, less scheduling flexibility, and terrible morale.

It will also be telling when people flow to AA for a couple weeks, collect the bonus, and then leave for another carrier.

ZeroTT

Flow is never a sustainable hiring option. The pyramid is not that shape. Mainline has a 30 year average career. For a guaranteed 5 year flow you would need the WO to be 1/6 the size of mainline and that still only works with steady mainline attrition. Which it doesn’t have

JayBee

Yes, this should have been said - this is what I think *should* have happened instead of the $30k, though there was technically a "flow increase" it was laughable at best.