DoNoHarm

The ULCC's don't stand a chance at survival. The leisure travel will likely come back at the 75% level, but the business travel will be back at 100% as soon as this starts to subside. I can't imagine any legitimate business travel happens on a ULCC. AA's billion dollar routes to LHR will be back and running in a couple months.

If this is a short lived issue and is over mid-summer, then this will be a V shaped recession. The stimulus package ensures that all Americans still have money so that we can come out of this quickly. In addition to the $1200, the unemployment benefits are better than they have ever been. People will have lots of money and want to spend it. It will be a lot like post WWII.

If this drags on until next winter, then it will be a very different story. But it shouldn't be that long.

I am hearing rumblings that AA Cargo (scheduled cargo only flights) may well be back as a result of this. This would be a huge boost for AA.

daOldMan

AA had a serious issue on the horizon with how to train enough pilots. In addition to the 1400 pilots it needed to hire and train, they also needed to retrain all of the replacements for the retirees and for the fleets that were scheduled to be parked.

Now, the sims will no longer have any new hires, but rather be filled with everyone that is moving off of the retired fleets and into the seats that were vacated by the retirees. AA really tipped their hand with this early retirement buy out, showing that they are getting ready to use every bit of available sim time that is going to be available these next few months to get ahead on training.

This will be over in a few months, the government will have paid the bills for all of the revenue that was lost, and AA will have solved their training issue. The old aircraft will all be gone, and AA will have the newest fleet that will be paid off in a couple of years and in better shape than before the Chinese virus hit the US.

bababouey

Back to the flowback topic, it would be nice to have. As someone in the bottom 15%, I’d sleep better if I had a rj Capt spot to go to. AA gives y’all flow spots to keep our regionals attractive, they should take care of us if we get furloughed as well, maybe it will be in the next contract or we can get an loa for it, but I’m sure it will cost us something.


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chrisreedrules

Let’s revisit this thread in June. We’ll have a good idea by then how future bookings are looking.

And btw DoNoHarm, you literally have your entire analysis completely backwards from what airline CEOs and industry experts have said they expect. This will hurt business travelers much more than leisure travelers. And business travelers are the legacies bread n butter.

History has proven time and time again that when companies fear a recession they cut expenses. One of the first things cut is travel. Business travel will drop dramatically (some never to return as digital conferences etc become a new norm) and the legacy airlines that have staked out a large portion of their revenue stream from it will suffer immensely. They need to figure out how to pivot and do it quick.

Systemized

If you think furloughs will happen at AA, then you need to assume a trip through bankruptcy will happen too. That kind of downing requires a bankruptcy to shed aircraft leases and restructure bad debt. That means PSA is in bankruptcy also and the CBA at PSA would get gutted along with any associated LOAs letters which includes the flow side letter.

AA is already 10-15% smaller pilot wise in 2021 when the demand comes back with the early outs and hiring freeze. No hiring through all of 2021 will put the pilot group closer to 15-20% smaller starting in 2022. Furloughs, would only happen if AA projects those pilots will be gone longer than a year, otherwise the furlough will cost more money than retaining the additional staffing. 75% of current size for summer of 2021 might not require AA to furlough pilots. If so, probably 500-1000 max. 1200 pilots retire from AA in the next 12 months including the early outs.

rdneckpilot

The flow program has nothing to do with staffing mainline. It’s there to keep warm bodies in the small jet sub-B scale RJ fleet. AA can fill all new hire classes with off the street new hires any day of the week. If they allow flow backs it hurts their ability to staff the regional which is the primary purpose of flow in the first place.

There is no benefit to management to push mainline back to the regional level. There is also no benefit to the regional pilot group.

Don’t see it ever becoming a reality.

chrisreedrules

I do believe that is a real possibility.

Systemized

A. regional pilots don't have a lot of places to go right now if hiring stops everywhere and regionals don't need to hire for attrition.

B. The American regional footprint is getting smaller due to scope. Downsizing will happen at certain eagle carrier regionals. Scope allows for an RJ fleet 75 percent the number of mainline narrow bodies. American just retired the 75s and 190s. That's 40 RJs that need to go away, 19 of which with 76 seats. More mainline downsizing next year, means more RJs going away.

C. AA pilots ain't giving up scope, if anything they're taking some back.

rld1k

Then why would WO give up their jobs so some mainline guy "lands soft" for a flow that is totally useless during times like these?

Varsity

PSA doesn't even communicate with the other two Eagle WO's. I think your chances at a flowback deal are around 0%.