Wormburner

I should clarify that I am about 2.5 hours from CLT and not actually in base. In other words I can make a line work without being a commuter however 2hr callout reserve would be a problem, if I had to do that for 2 years I would have to move or park a camper halfway there or some crap.

One other consideration is flow. I know everyone says "dont count on it" however PDT now flows 9/month starting november and has 750 pilots. If you estimate 35% leave before they flow that's only about 4.5 years to flow which seems achievable.

ASAP

From someone on the line, flying a CRJ, a common sentiment expressed is amazement that anyone would willingly go to Piedmont when PSA is hiring.
PSA isn’t the gold standard in a lot of ways, but flying actual airliners, and the occasional new 900 instead of clapped out, really small 145’s with ****ty schedules doesn’t make any sense to me.

ZeroTT

the Piedmont increased flow is a red herring at best and Potemkin village is probably a better epithet. It’s dependent on attrition targets which will not be met.

time to flow is fundamentally dependent on outside attrition and should be seen as career insurance not a career plan. If you want a redecorated house you don’t sit around waiting for a fire or flood. Same with flow

all that said, the industry is in a hiring boom and seniority progression should be great at least long enough to get you off short call in clt

RJDriver900

The important thing to remember is the 2 years is for a round 1 line and thats just current data. A lot has happened over the last year with furloughs, recall etc. Each month they have round 2 build up lines. Its by no means a large amount like round 1 is but CLT has the most round 2 since its the largest base. I know a few people who've been on property for 7-8 months. A handful only did short call after finishing ioe. Then each month they've bounced back and forth between long call and build up lines since. They are charlotte based and have been for the last few months as well so they got CLT within 4-5 months of hire. Now obviously that changes with each new hire class and they could've just been lucky but for October the most junior person to get a round 1 line to sap was around 21 months if I'm reading the chart correctly.

Apejackson

I guess I should have put an asterisk next to my times…that’s for this point in time. We didn’t hire for a year and we even furloughed 700 that’s all just came back to the line in April. The two years to hold a line includes a year of dead-time. So, you could probably expect times on par with where we were pre-COVID. It was a couple months to get into any base you wanted and about 10 moths to hold a line everywhere but CLT. I think that was about 14-16 months but could be wrong (I wasn’t based there so I wasn’t “really” paying attention).

In regards to upgrades. We are already “senior manning” which means as soon as you’re eligible you should be able to upgrade. However, that does mean you’ll be back on reserve and there are likely those senior to you that are bypassing until they can hold a line so it could be a long time on reserve as a captain. I think historically it’s been about 4.5 years on property to hold a line as a captain.

Of course, these numbers can always get shorter or longer depending on what happens above the regionals.

ZeroTT

historically times have been all over the place. None of it is relevant now. I understand the need/impulse to get an idea but there’s really not any useful predictions unless you can predict lcc/legacy/cargo hiring for the next two years

Apejackson

I agree with that but I was thinking we could use PSA’s pre-COVID timeframes as a reference point. I’m thinking it should get close to that and if things ramp-up the way all the LCC’s, Legacies, and Cargo are predicted it should get even more exciting for everybody.