Could AA flow all of PSA at once
10-05-2021, 04:53 PM
#11
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,499
1. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors.
2. Majors will generally (but not invariably) prefer retired military fixed wing pilots over anyone else since they are cheap to insure (already got Tricare), have little experience with unions, already have a pension, are not much of a training risk, and are so damn happy to actually be OFF when they are not at work that they tend to be undemanding and cause little trouble. And they’ll never take a military leave like the Reservists may have to do if they get orders. But most of all, if they are retired they are going to be about 42, meaning they are going to spend a fairly small amount of their major career as a senior Captain. Granted, you are going to only get 23 years out of them, but less than half of that time will be in the top longevity pay scale.
3. Honorably discharged military fixed wing pilots (jumping out 10 years after UPT) are probably their next favorite, followed by reservists, the latter because of military leave.
4. As long as their regional is contributing to the bottom line of the major management would like to keep them there as long as possible. Basically they would like to flow only people so senior that if they don’t flow them some other major is going to grab them, although sometimes to keep new hires coming they will juice up the flow a little as a recruiting gimmick. But basically do the math. If you start with a 30 year old new hire FO and flow them at 10 years, they are 40 when their seniority gets reset to zero. They have 25 years to climb the pay scale. But flow them in five years, they’ll spend five more years at the top of the scale. Their average flying hour cost to management will be higher for the younger hires.
Anyway, disabuse yourself of the notion that management considers you one of their own. They don’t. They’ll keep you working at the lowest wage they can convince you to take for as long as they think they can get away with it. But that’s not the real pi$$er. The pilots at your major - at least many of them - would just as soon that management screwed you over, because once they themselves made the jump to major they are benefitting from the money management makes on you. Heck, a lot of pilots at majors don’t even want to “waste” negotiating capital on first year FOs at the major because guys on probation really aren’t part of the game yet. Ever look at the UPS hourly rates?
SERIOUSLY? $50 an hour to be an FO on a 747? No, $50 an hour because nobody looks after newbies much at contract time. They aren’t yet really part of the gang.
Look at your own pay scales. A CA who has been at PSA for 4 years is taking an hourly cut their first year as an FO at AA. And the longevity gets reset back to zero. And they are now pulling reserve at some junior base. And when they finally do hold a line, it’ll be a junior line for quite awhile.
Now that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to climb the ladder, because it is - at least eventually. What it means is that nobody is going to give you anything they don’t have to, not management, not even the pilots at your major. So BE COMPETITIVE. Get your hours in, get your apps in, get your four year degree finished, and hustle, going to all the major hiring events you can. Hustle, because nobody else is going to do it for you and seniority is everything in this business.
2. Majors will generally (but not invariably) prefer retired military fixed wing pilots over anyone else since they are cheap to insure (already got Tricare), have little experience with unions, already have a pension, are not much of a training risk, and are so damn happy to actually be OFF when they are not at work that they tend to be undemanding and cause little trouble. And they’ll never take a military leave like the Reservists may have to do if they get orders. But most of all, if they are retired they are going to be about 42, meaning they are going to spend a fairly small amount of their major career as a senior Captain. Granted, you are going to only get 23 years out of them, but less than half of that time will be in the top longevity pay scale.
3. Honorably discharged military fixed wing pilots (jumping out 10 years after UPT) are probably their next favorite, followed by reservists, the latter because of military leave.
4. As long as their regional is contributing to the bottom line of the major management would like to keep them there as long as possible. Basically they would like to flow only people so senior that if they don’t flow them some other major is going to grab them, although sometimes to keep new hires coming they will juice up the flow a little as a recruiting gimmick. But basically do the math. If you start with a 30 year old new hire FO and flow them at 10 years, they are 40 when their seniority gets reset to zero. They have 25 years to climb the pay scale. But flow them in five years, they’ll spend five more years at the top of the scale. Their average flying hour cost to management will be higher for the younger hires.
Anyway, disabuse yourself of the notion that management considers you one of their own. They don’t. They’ll keep you working at the lowest wage they can convince you to take for as long as they think they can get away with it. But that’s not the real pi$$er. The pilots at your major - at least many of them - would just as soon that management screwed you over, because once they themselves made the jump to major they are benefitting from the money management makes on you. Heck, a lot of pilots at majors don’t even want to “waste” negotiating capital on first year FOs at the major because guys on probation really aren’t part of the game yet. Ever look at the UPS hourly rates?
SERIOUSLY? $50 an hour to be an FO on a 747? No, $50 an hour because nobody looks after newbies much at contract time. They aren’t yet really part of the gang.
Look at your own pay scales. A CA who has been at PSA for 4 years is taking an hourly cut their first year as an FO at AA. And the longevity gets reset back to zero. And they are now pulling reserve at some junior base. And when they finally do hold a line, it’ll be a junior line for quite awhile.
Now that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to climb the ladder, because it is - at least eventually. What it means is that nobody is going to give you anything they don’t have to, not management, not even the pilots at your major. So BE COMPETITIVE. Get your hours in, get your apps in, get your four year degree finished, and hustle, going to all the major hiring events you can. Hustle, because nobody else is going to do it for you and seniority is everything in this business.
10-05-2021, 05:23 PM
#12
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
777 captain cost doesn’t depend on how many years one individual gets to have it.
Every widebody captain will be at the top of the pay scale. If you want to run 100 widebody airplanes, you need that many captains of the top of the pay scale. They can all retire after Five years or 15, but you still back fill that slot with another captain at the top of the pay scale.
Every widebody captain will be at the top of the pay scale. If you want to run 100 widebody airplanes, you need that many captains of the top of the pay scale. They can all retire after Five years or 15, but you still back fill that slot with another captain at the top of the pay scale.
10-05-2021, 05:38 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2021
Posts: 376
Originally Posted by Excargodog
1. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors.
There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors if they don't mind destroying their own regional feed.
There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors if they lower their standards and hire anyone that meets the minimums.
The majors can hire all they need, but at what cost? There are currently not 7500+ pilots outside of the majors that are available and have the same qualifications as were required to be hired in 2018. Not even close.
So, the majors can choose to decimate their own regional feed. Or, the majors can choose to start hiring kids straight from Riddle. Either way you see it, there IS a shortage of pilots at the majors.
We all know lots of Regional FOs that are getting calls at legacy airlines right now. We also all know Regional Captains that are getting interview offers from 3+ airlines within days of each other. And it is just starting.
10-05-2021, 08:06 PM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 314
Originally Posted by Excargodog
1. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors.
2. Majors will generally (but not invariably) prefer retired military fixed wing pilots over anyone else since they are cheap to insure (already got Tricare), have little experience with unions, already have a pension, are not much of a training risk, and are so damn happy to actually be OFF when they are not at work that they tend to be undemanding and cause little trouble. And they’ll never take a military leave like the Reservists may have to do if they get orders. But most of all, if they are retired they are going to be about 42, meaning they are going to spend a fairly small amount of their major career as a senior Captain. Granted, you are going to only get 23 years out of them, but less than half of that time will be in the top longevity pay scale.
3. Honorably discharged military fixed wing pilots (jumping out 10 years after UPT) are probably their next favorite, followed by reservists, the latter because of military leave.
4. As long as their regional is contributing to the bottom line of the major management would like to keep them there as long as possible. Basically they would like to flow only people so senior that if they don’t flow them some other major is going to grab them, although sometimes to keep new hires coming they will juice up the flow a little as a recruiting gimmick. But basically do the math. If you start with a 30 year old new hire FO and flow them at 10 years, they are 40 when their seniority gets reset to zero. They have 25 years to climb the pay scale. But flow them in five years, they’ll spend five more years at the top of the scale. Their average flying hour cost to management will be higher for the younger hires.
Anyway, disabuse yourself of the notion that management considers you one of their own. They don’t. They’ll keep you working at the lowest wage they can convince you to take for as long as they think they can get away with it. But that’s not the real pi$$er. The pilots at your major - at least many of them - would just as soon that management screwed you over, because once they themselves made the jump to major they are benefitting from the money management makes on you. Heck, a lot of pilots at majors don’t even want to “waste” negotiating capital on first year FOs at the major because guys on probation really aren’t part of the game yet. Ever look at the UPS hourly rates?
SERIOUSLY? $50 an hour to be an FO on a 747? No, $50 an hour because nobody looks after newbies much at contract time. They aren’t yet really part of the gang.
Look at your own pay scales. A CA who has been at PSA for 4 years is taking an hourly cut their first year as an FO at AA. And the longevity gets reset back to zero. And they are now pulling reserve at some junior base. And when they finally do hold a line, it’ll be a junior line for quite awhile.
Now that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to climb the ladder, because it is - at least eventually. What it means is that nobody is going to give you anything they don’t have to, not management, not even the pilots at your major. So BE COMPETITIVE. Get your hours in, get your apps in, get your four year degree finished, and hustle, going to all the major hiring events you can. Hustle, because nobody else is going to do it for you and seniority is everything in this business.
2. Majors will generally (but not invariably) prefer retired military fixed wing pilots over anyone else since they are cheap to insure (already got Tricare), have little experience with unions, already have a pension, are not much of a training risk, and are so damn happy to actually be OFF when they are not at work that they tend to be undemanding and cause little trouble. And they’ll never take a military leave like the Reservists may have to do if they get orders. But most of all, if they are retired they are going to be about 42, meaning they are going to spend a fairly small amount of their major career as a senior Captain. Granted, you are going to only get 23 years out of them, but less than half of that time will be in the top longevity pay scale.
3. Honorably discharged military fixed wing pilots (jumping out 10 years after UPT) are probably their next favorite, followed by reservists, the latter because of military leave.
4. As long as their regional is contributing to the bottom line of the major management would like to keep them there as long as possible. Basically they would like to flow only people so senior that if they don’t flow them some other major is going to grab them, although sometimes to keep new hires coming they will juice up the flow a little as a recruiting gimmick. But basically do the math. If you start with a 30 year old new hire FO and flow them at 10 years, they are 40 when their seniority gets reset to zero. They have 25 years to climb the pay scale. But flow them in five years, they’ll spend five more years at the top of the scale. Their average flying hour cost to management will be higher for the younger hires.
Anyway, disabuse yourself of the notion that management considers you one of their own. They don’t. They’ll keep you working at the lowest wage they can convince you to take for as long as they think they can get away with it. But that’s not the real pi$$er. The pilots at your major - at least many of them - would just as soon that management screwed you over, because once they themselves made the jump to major they are benefitting from the money management makes on you. Heck, a lot of pilots at majors don’t even want to “waste” negotiating capital on first year FOs at the major because guys on probation really aren’t part of the game yet. Ever look at the UPS hourly rates?
SERIOUSLY? $50 an hour to be an FO on a 747? No, $50 an hour because nobody looks after newbies much at contract time. They aren’t yet really part of the gang.
Look at your own pay scales. A CA who has been at PSA for 4 years is taking an hourly cut their first year as an FO at AA. And the longevity gets reset back to zero. And they are now pulling reserve at some junior base. And when they finally do hold a line, it’ll be a junior line for quite awhile.
Now that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to climb the ladder, because it is - at least eventually. What it means is that nobody is going to give you anything they don’t have to, not management, not even the pilots at your major. So BE COMPETITIVE. Get your hours in, get your apps in, get your four year degree finished, and hustle, going to all the major hiring events you can. Hustle, because nobody else is going to do it for you and seniority is everything in this business.
10-05-2021, 08:46 PM
#15
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,499
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
777 captain cost doesn’t depend on how many years one individual gets to have it.
Every widebody captain will be at the top of the pay scale. If you want to run 100 widebody airplanes, you need that many captains of the top of the pay scale. They can all retire after Five years or 15, but you still back fill that slot with another captain at the top of the pay scale.
Every widebody captain will be at the top of the pay scale. If you want to run 100 widebody airplanes, you need that many captains of the top of the pay scale. They can all retire after Five years or 15, but you still back fill that slot with another captain at the top of the pay scale.
Taking older guys mean you will need to hire MORE older guys, but you are paying them ALL less per hour, considerably less. And since you are flying the same number of hours, the reduced hourly cost saves you money. And actually, you save even more money because the older guys don’t wind up getting the seniority to get the longer vacations that more senior people get that decreases their utilization and raise their hourly cost.
Yeah, you have to recruit more - but major airlines don’t have any problem hiring people - and that’s why the airlines fall all over themselves to recruit retired military officers in their mid 40s. It’s not because they are Top Gun instructors - most of them have been flying a desk for at least ten years - but their average hourly earnings throughout their career will be far less than the 25 -30 year old Embry Riddle kid.
If you’ve never had queuing theory, I’ll grant you it’s not intuitive, but it really does work that way.
10-06-2021, 04:51 AM
#16
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Setting aside queuing theory, the majors currently need functional regional carriers. There is a limit to how many regional captains they can harvest before the system collapses. That limit is near and will prompt decisions that would seem imprudent and expensive in historically normal times. But the regionals are on the verge of collapse… so look out
10-06-2021, 05:30 AM
#17
Some Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 318
Originally Posted by FlyGuy2021
You are missing the most important part. You need to qualify your statement, it isn't this simple.
There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors if they don't mind destroying their own regional feed.
There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors if they lower their standards and hire anyone that meets the minimums.
The majors can hire all they need, but at what cost? There are currently not 7500+ pilots outside of the majors that are available and have the same qualifications as were required to be hired in 2018. Not even close.
So, the majors can choose to decimate their own regional feed. Or, the majors can choose to start hiring kids straight from Riddle. Either way you see it, there IS a shortage of pilots at the majors.
We all know lots of Regional FOs that are getting calls at legacy airlines right now. We also all know Regional Captains that are getting interview offers from 3+ airlines within days of each other. And it is just starting.
There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors if they don't mind destroying their own regional feed.
There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at the majors if they lower their standards and hire anyone that meets the minimums.
The majors can hire all they need, but at what cost? There are currently not 7500+ pilots outside of the majors that are available and have the same qualifications as were required to be hired in 2018. Not even close.
So, the majors can choose to decimate their own regional feed. Or, the majors can choose to start hiring kids straight from Riddle. Either way you see it, there IS a shortage of pilots at the majors.
We all know lots of Regional FOs that are getting calls at legacy airlines right now. We also all know Regional Captains that are getting interview offers from 3+ airlines within days of each other. And it is just starting.
Has anyone seen figures on how many people have applied or done DEC? Seems they're focusing on the captain issue so wonder what its going to look like when there's a first officer issue.
10-06-2021, 09:40 AM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 449
Originally Posted by RJDriver900
I'm really curious how things are going to shake out. With the retention bonus for captains and the fact FO's are getting calls at legacies like you said and LLCs its going to be an interesting time. Wonder if the path at some point is going to be not having enough qualified FO to upgrade to captain even if they bring back forced to the scale like it was pre covid.
Has anyone seen figures on how many people have applied or done DEC? Seems they're focusing on the captain issue so wonder what its going to look like when there's a first officer issue.
Has anyone seen figures on how many people have applied or done DEC? Seems they're focusing on the captain issue so wonder what its going to look like when there's a first officer issue.
AA needs their regional lift, and can't afford to let them become non viable. I imagine they are going to make increasingly drastic moves to keep pilots at their regionals.
They'll never be able to make regionals competitive with legacies, but I could see them making at least regional captain pay on par with the LCC's.
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