Pilot Shortage On the News
 

Airlines Scrambling to Prevent Pilot Shortage | NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth

American Airlines expects to hire over
500+ new pilots this year alone, and close to 7500+ pilots over the next 9 years as a result of mandatory retirements.

More than 50% of American Airlines pilots will come from Envoy, one of the company's wholly owned regional carriers.

Envoy pilots new hire classes are now getting full, hiring about 70 new pilots every month.

"As long as American Airlines is hiring pilots, Envoy pilots have a seat at American Airlines, it's just that simple," said Capt. Jon Reibach, director of pilot recruitment at Envoy.

Cute free advertisement for Envoy...

Until the flow drops to under 7 years, I don't see this as a huge carrot. Unless it is for the guys under 35. Then it's not a bad deal.

Oh it will drop way below 7 years, you can count on that... the amount of retirements coming, new hires at Envoy in the near future can expect 3years and they will be at AA... possibly less. If I was a new pilot, Envoy would be my 1st choice hands down... it may be 7yrs now, but just give it a year or two. Things will change.. FAST!

3 years? It takes almost two to get enough hours to be a 121 Captain. Who is going to be flying Envoy planes when no one is qualified to be a Captain?

SHHHHhhhhhhh... it's HIS fantasy, let him live it, eh?

Some good looking people in that video...:D

If you are one of those original 842(or whatever that number was) the flow is fantastic and pretty quick...but that also means you've been at envoy since 1999-2000.... once all of those pilots flow the percentage that envoy flows each month goes down from around 50% to about 30%. Be sure to read the fine print with the flow, its a great deal for us young guys but its also a little misleading and can create the wrong expectations. If you're waiting on the flow you will be at PSA, PDT or Envoy for 5-6 years each.

Hahaha! The regionals have always been such a scam. Time to grow up and find a real career!

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, haaaa
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa,.......... (breath, breath, breath), Haaaaaaaaaaa,
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa,
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Do you have any idea how long the 824 have been waiting for the flow?!?!

There was nothing quick about it.

All the eagle flows I fly with have DOHs between 1999 and 2000. PSA flows are around 04-05 off the top of my head and PDT 02-03 ish

Guys... relax... both the upgrade times & flow is quickly coming down at Envoy. By years end you may see close to 2.5 year upgrade times and 5-6 years flow for new hires. Period.

PSA's current flows are 2007 hires, so 10 year flows right now.

But, if Envoy keeps flowing 30 a month, they will catch up to us very quickly. We are flowing 5 a month right now (and sending another 2-3 per month outside of the flow).

I know they have been there for a long time what I'm saying is the flow percentage seems high because they are trying to flow those guys first. This is from what friends of mine at Envoy have said.

PDTs most recent flows are 2007 hires. At current flow rates and 0 attrition, we should be flowing 2011 hires by the end of 2017 and 2014 hires at the end of 2018.

We regional pilots ought to keep in mind that there are also thousands of military, ACMI, LCC, foreign pilots and part 135/91 pilots wanting to move on to the majors as well. We are not only competing with one another for a limited number of open slots, but also with thousands of other pilots as well. There is no pilot shortage for the majors nor will there ever be.

https://image.ibb.co/fGJXTv/UAL_Retirements.jpg

https://preview.ibb.co/gMyAFa/DAL_Retirements.jpg

https://image.ibb.co/njGK8v/AA_Retirements.jpg


All of above charting data originates from: http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy

24, 25, 10... can you explain the charts a bit since they seem skewed?

I just edited my comments to show the source of the data

Would make more sense with the same X axis.

I doubt it was free. That article reads like a press release.

And for every retirement there are at least 3 pilots competing for that opening. There is no shortage. There never will be.

There are? And where do you get that information or is just what you feel?

There won't be 3 pilots competing for each pilot slot at the 3 legacies. They will all be hired. Including all the other groups of pilots that were mentioned. Don't forget about Southwest, Alaska, FedEx, UPS. Big picture my friend. There aren't enough pilots.

Airlinepilotcentral.com my friend. Total up the number of pilots at all the regional airlines and then take that number and compare it to the number of retirements from the big 3 over the next 10 years. Then factor in pilots at LCCs and the military that all want to get hired and youll discover there are more than enough pilots.

You are assuming every pilot wants to go to a legacy.

This.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Not every regional pilot wants to move on anywhere. There are many that have no intention of going anywhere else so long as they aren't forced to.
I would say even this applies to even more LCC pilots.

Aren't there 20000 retirements at the big 3 and 18,000 regional pilots? Those are really the only two numbers you can use. Do you have a number for military pilots available per year? I also know many many LCC guys who have no desire to ever go to a legacy. So, again, where you getting 60,000 pilots?

And I wouldn't be surprised at all if somewhere around 20-25% of regional pilots don't want to move on either.

Add in that the military is making fewer pilots. IMO the regional airlines will continue to struggle to fill their seats so long as the majors hire at the forecasted rates and the 1500 rule keeps the supply of regional pilots restricted. The surge will draw some more pilots out of the military, but not enough to have 3 pilots applying for 1 vacancy. The rest of the competition (91/135) has always been there. What you are seeing already is the regional airlines looking to non-traditional sources for new pilots like the military helicopter community.

Agreed. Plus, I know plenty of regional guys who are close to retiring. They have to be replaced as well.

youtube.com/watch?v=rHKanuyeawc

Don't forget the thousands that are qualified and just on the sidelines or overseas, flying $$135 and want the schedule and retirement. We could see well over 10k mil pilots over that 10 year span as well. Nobody seems to also account for those just entering and who will enter in coming years. I know several who spent minimal time at airlines who are at majors. Thousands of fresh ATPs get printed at a regional near you, most with quick upgrades in their prospects.

Haven't forgotten about them. Those that are in the "sidelines" are there because they want to be or have to be. A lot of ATPs out there are held by guys who will never re-enter the airline world no matter what happens. They were furloughed one too many times and changed careers. Others for medical or other personal reasons.
The 135 and mil have always been there.

I really think the majors will always be able to fill seats. Now how qualified will they be? I'm guessing it will get to the point they will be hiring CFIs with 1500 hours. Which leaves the question of if those applicants are going straight to the majors, who is going to the regionals. IMO the regionals will be only a fraction of what they are now about 15-20 years from now

Why should we be caring what will unfold in twenty years is beyond me.... We might lose our medicals tomorrow. Just enjoy your time where you are at, and if you end up becoming a B777 captain, good for you.

I hope your financial/career planning includes what might unfold in 20 years. I know mine does.