flysooner9

No way they still have 11,000 apps. What's your source?

TransWorld

The 11,000 apps on file (I always heard 10,000) was back when little or no hiring was taking place. As hiring has been ramping up, does anyone know the current number of apps? Seems like it would be fewer.

There are 20,000 regional pilots. General opinion is there are 10% really, truly confirmed lifers, bringing that down to 18,000.

About 1,000 pilots come available from the military each year.

The number of pilots being hired today is drawing some of those who got out after 9/11 back into the profession. At some point this pot will run dry.

Further, pilots flying corporate gigs are making the move. Their backfills will be pulling from the same pool of fresh faces that the regionals will be hiring from.

If/when 67 is the new 60, er ah 65, that will move everything to the right some (less than 2 years because some will choose to get out before then).

Current hiring by the big 6 (AA, DEL, UN, SW, FEDEX, and UPS) is 3,500 per year. Projections have this ramping up to 6,000 per year.

Subtracting the 1,000 military, that means 5,000 will need to be hired from regionals, etc. That is about 1/4 of the pilots there each year. This is going to continue for at least the next 10-15 years.

So even though some are skeptical, my crystal ball says regionals will greatly shrink over then next several years. The only unknowns are how many more fresh faces will this hiring boom attract, how much the airlines in other countries will attract ex Pat's, and what if something major happens like 9/11.

iahflyr

I would agree with TransWorld in general :
-A few small regionals flying EAS routes, hiring lower time pilots for similar low time pilot pay as today
-Fewer number of bigger regionals (maybe 60-70% of today)
-More 70 and 76 seat flying than 50 seat flying, but 50 seaters not totally gone
-All regionals still hiring at 1500hrs, or whatever the minimum is
-The FAA may lower ATP standards to 1,000hrs across the board, or something similar.
Of course any of that is subject to change, but that is my best guess with current trends.

One thing I am absolutely sure of... No matter how high the demand is at the regional level, United, American, Delta, Southwest, Fedex, and UPS will still have thousands of applications on file, and therefore they will get to be selective with who they hire. These airlines almost universally hire someone with a college degree. Even now they are hiring people without any PIC turbine time, but they are generally still not hiring people without college degrees.

It's good to hear you're going to pursue your college degree. It's a great life experience, great education, and a good fallback incase something doesn't work out with flying. When people tell me their stats (TT, PIC time, type rating, types of flying) and ask why A major airline hasn't called it, the answer is almost universally, "Because you don't have a 4 year college degree." Don't make that mistake.

prex8390

I remember when expressjet and Skywest would come into the ground schools at my university around 2010 and talk about how they have a pile of apps "yay high" and only wanted the best and brightest. Yet it seems no one now can get enough bodies in the door and guys who just 3 years ago couldn't get the time of day from a recruiter for criminal pasts and Duis are sitting in ground school right now

ToastAir

In four years things will look different with less 50 seaters more 76 seaters and I believe majors owning or controlling most regionals. Perhaps they will even do 76 seat flying in house. In eight years, the majors will want more 36 to 50 seaters for those "thin" routes and be "subcontracting" flying to those who can do it a it the least cost......in twelve years.............

TransWorld

Another thread reports the 11,000 applications of a couple of years ago is now less than 5,000 at American and about 3,000 at Southwest.

Reasonable to assume most are duplicates. Assume the other majors do not have many different applicants in their hip pocket.

If that is the case, that is half what it was. It is two years at current hiring rates. It is one year at the forecast hiring rates when retirements kick in with full force.

You can draw your own conclusion, but I think the regionals are looking at the edge of the cliff in a few years.

ItnStln

How did you manage that

CBreezy

GI Bill is a pretty good way to manage that.

ItnStln

I know, but I was wondering if that's the case here.

jdebrey

Yes, the GI bill really helped me out.