HELP - Regional Airline 4 year outlook
 

Alright guys, idk if this is a question that can be answered but it's been on my mind

What does the outlook for regional airlines look like on a 4 year timeline

I'm a high school senior graduating in 20 days and have really been thinking about what the regional airline industry will look like when I get done with my undergraduate.

I'm extremely passionate about aviation and love to fly, but times are pretty dang good in the industry and I am a little nervous that this economy is going to take a big hit before I get done.

My main questions.....

The pilot shortage will be felt at the regional level thus affecting starting pay. How will regionals structure hiring/pay when their aren't enough qualified pilots in they're pipeline, but the company is struggling due to the a recession. Seems like they would be royally *******ed. They have no one to fly they're planes but can't increase pay to attract pilots.

What do they do?


The other side of the equation would be this:

Say the economy is going great, will the shortage continually increase pay? This would help a lot with all of the cash i'm about to be spending on my training.


Just an FYI I personally am not one of those guys pursing this career just for the money, but it is a big deal when it comes to paying back loans


Thanks for the response

I'm gonna whip out my crystal ball as is everyone else in this thread but in person opinion, the regional industry will be mostly gone in 4 years, it'll look like it did pre 9/11. It will be there but on a smaller level. I.e gone with the 2 hour routes on 50 seat jets and back to mostly hour tops flights. You might start seeing guys getting hired direct to majors and bypassing regionals altogether. Someone in your shoes, don't be too concerned with the Regionals, it's a dying industry. All this barring another massive terrorist attack or economic downtown like 2008. We shall see.

In 4 years? Seriously?

Look back 4 years and tell me if you see anything that you recognize in this industry.

Bro come on! It's not like it took him 4 years to graduate HS or nothing. Look kid go to college, get a hunny, drink beer, get good grades, party, have fun and one day when you're bored go to the airport and take a flying lesson from some crazy cropduster guy who can fly the heck out of the plane. If you still like it then sell your soul to ATP and youre good.

Or you combined both the aviation and school like I am..... I.E UND. Live in mn and let's just say good old Uncle Sam is paying for a large amount of my education.


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Actually buddy that's what I did too. But you know what I spent a few years sucking it up in the Army so I din't just get it for free I earned it. I also went to UND.

My Crystal Ball - 4 - 8 Years Out
 

Okay, I will pull out my crystal ball. Where will regional flying be in 4 years? (I am going to protect myself by saying certainly by 2025, 8 years out.)

• There still will be a handful of small airlines flying EAS, like today. Hours will be less than the 1500, pilots will use them as stepping stones, much like instructors.
• The current equal split of 50 seat / 70 seat will slant much more towards the larger planes. A few small markets will be served by the 50s. Most will have fewer flights of the larger, or markets will build.
• There will be fewer regional airlines, only a fraction of today. Some will be absorbed by their parent major or get bought out. Some will go out of business. Some will be merged. Regionals will have between 1/4 and 1/2 of the number of pilots today.
• A lot of the 70s will be replaced by majors flying fewer 100 seat planes. There is a segment between the 70s and the 737/A320s. It used to be filled by DC-9s (and to some extent MD-80s). Currently AA wants to get rid of the E190s out of PHL. All 3 majors will reverse course and grow this 100s size flying.

Bottom line: Still some EAS. Only a fraction of the 50s planes flown by regionals. Everything will scale up to larger planes, fewer flights per day. Only a handful of regionals flying a fraction of what they do today. Majors will assume most 70s, and a newly created 100s planes.

Pay for these 70s and 100s will be 75% of 737/A320 pay. Pay for 50s, still being flown by a few regionals will be 65% of 737/A320 pay.

Once a pilot starting out gets 1500 hours, some will go to regionals for a couple of years. Some will make the jump directly to the majors (initially flying their 70s and 100s). Most military will go directly to the majors.

My crystal ball is not perfect, but that is what I see.

You sound like a pleasure to fly with.

United and Delta have over 11,000 apps on file. Granted it's the same 11k pilots for the most part. The military is pumping out enough pilots to fill 50% of the slots at the legacies, and they usually don't put out an app more than a year out from when they will be available. That's a constant stream of additional applicants. Plus all of the regional lifers that may start getting displaced and throw their apps I the pile as the regionals get more volatile. Bottom line, there's over 20,000 regional pilots "in line" plus many well-qualified corporate and mil guys competing for 800 jobs per year at each legacy. It's going to take a while. And age 67 of looming in the distance....