The age factor of AA WO flows...
02-13-2019, 09:12 PM
#12
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Joined APC: Oct 2007
Posts: 194
Originally Posted by Rotor2prop
Does anyone have the data that shows how the ages of flows compare to AA retirements? The age of the average flow up to this point has to be fairly high so it appears AAs retirement curve will stay higher than projected in the numbers that are published. I would just guess that at least 30-40ish percent of flows will retire before 2030 that are already at mainline.
I’d be interested in hearing others opinions about this. Does this data exist? From a business prospective this is interesting.
I’d be interested in hearing others opinions about this. Does this data exist? From a business prospective this is interesting.
02-14-2019, 03:27 AM
#13
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Joined APC: Dec 2010
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This is some interesting information! It appears that a lot of the early flows are to retire within the next ten years. The part that’s interesting to me is the age range of the flows going forward seem to be very close in age. That will set the stage for another mass retirement for the next generation of airline pilots unless they truly go to unmanned or single pilot operations in 30 years.
02-14-2019, 04:36 AM
#14
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pretty damn crazy to look at the projections. PDT flows are closer to 30 right now. been here 12 months I was 35. if anyone is here before end of 19 Id guess there won’t be a position you won’t be able to hold in 4 years. within reason. That first two year lock is gonna be painful for many if they don’t do it right. Be rough to be stuck in a 73 for 2 years while jr folk are on 777 or 87. if that’s where ya want to be. Top of the food chain for sure.
02-14-2019, 08:16 AM
#15
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Originally Posted by Battlinbear21
pretty damn crazy to look at the projections. PDT flows are closer to 30 right now. been here 12 months I was 35. if anyone is here before end of 19 Id guess there won’t be a position you won’t be able to hold in 4 years. within reason. That first two year lock is gonna be painful for many if they don’t do it right. Be rough to be stuck in a 73 for 2 years while jr folk are on 777 or 87. if that’s where ya want to be. Top of the food chain for sure.
New hire seat lock is 6 months.
02-15-2019, 03:27 AM
#16
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Posts: 209
Originally Posted by mainlineAF
New hire seat lock is 6 months.
02-15-2019, 06:20 AM
#17
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Posts: 540
Originally Posted by go skers
The VAST majority of Envoy flows from 2010-2016 will retire in the 2030's or earlier. There's around 800 in that group so it's not a huge number relative to the 15000 pilots at AA. Since 2017 the flows have Eagle hire dates after 2004 and a lot of them flowed in their 30's. Average Envoy pilot flowing today is around 35 with some a few years younger and some older. Average age with continued AA hiring will continue to decrease with a lot 2020-2021 flows making it in their mid to late 20's. Roughly 2000 flows from Envoy at the end of 2019 since the arbitration and LOA's started in 2010.
02-15-2019, 12:09 PM
#18
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Originally Posted by Battlinbear21
pretty damn crazy to look at the projections. PDT flows are closer to 30 right now. been here 12 months I was 35. if anyone is here before end of 19 Id guess there won’t be a position you won’t be able to hold in 4 years. within reason. That first two year lock is gonna be painful for many if they don’t do it right. Be rough to be stuck in a 73 for 2 years while jr folk are on 777 or 87. if that’s where ya want to be. Top of the food chain for sure.
As stated below, the initial seat lock for a new hire is six months. The bigger problem is that the company can (and more often than not, does) withhold you from your new bid status for 12 months. So plenty of people have been awarded a different G2 airplane, or G4 fo seat, and are being withheld in their current status.
I know a few fo's who bid from 73 to the bus, to be based where they live, and many more 73 fo's who bid the bus for the same reason. All are being withheld from training on their new status.
If you bid a higher paying status, you get paid the greater rate, but if your trying to get home, it can be a long extra year of commuting. And then there is that watching people junior to you enjoying better QOL, or sitting reserve at home while you wait out your withhold clock.
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