Ignorant Flow Question
 

First of all, sorry to create another thread about the flow.


I see people generally predicting 7-12 years for the flow. But, based on the impending retirements at American, isn't it likely the flow will ramp up and decrease the time?

Flow is based on the number of people at the WO, not the retirements at mainline. WO management cries that they can not afford to lose the people and AA likes cheap labor so flow increases likely won’t be a sure thing.

That being said Envoy and PSAs pilot unions have made gains in increasing flows for their pilot groups in the last couple of years. Piedmont’s Union leadership has not put much effort in to get the flow increased for its pilot group even though it has the worst QOL of all three WO.

AA's regional pilots are already flying exclusively AA passengers on AA airplanes. It doesn't benefit them that much (some, but not much) to flow you out of an E175 into an A319. It benefits them significantly more to keep the 175 pilot and hire someone that's outside of their system. They'll eventually need to snatch up as much of the qualified labor pool as they can, to keep it from their competitors.

Flow seems to primarily be a recruiting tool for the regionals. The flow allows them to bring in, and retain, pilots for less money and worse contracts. As long as AA has a long list of qualified people that would love to interview for a job, like they have now and will have for the foreseeable future, don't expect the flow time to drop to less than it takes to be competitive for the majors.

Time to flow is primarily determined by outside attrition and not flow rate. The big question is how the economy does the next 10 years. That will be the primary driver for career advancement for people being hired right now

After having talked with different people working in recruiting at several different airlines recently, I can tell you that the list of truly qualified applicants is not nearly as long as you may think.

And regarding the flows being a mere gimmick to entice new recruits into the ranks at the respective WO regionals... That is true. BUT, it’s also true that the flow keeps labor costs very low at the AA WOs compared to other regionals who have top-heavy seniority lists. The flows will continue as long as AA is running classes. And they will increase.

I hear people who work for other airlines besides the WOs come with the theory that AA will stop the flows to save their regional feed. If that was their plan they would do what United is doing and not be consolidating their regional feed like what Delta is doing. They can’t shut the flow off because they have too much reliance on the WOs at this point and they would start bleeding regional pilots. In fact things will only continue to improve at the WOs.

Envoy Going from 25 to 29 a month after previously having had 50% of all new hire positions at AA is still a loss on flow.... less of one, but still a loss.

They were an honest 5.5 year flow when they had 50% of all new hire slots. The retirements alone got you a 5.5 year flow. Now, not so much, even at 29.