Recession
 

With murmurs starting and it being ‘about time for another one’, would it be better to fly for a place like OO or XY, one of the WOs or places like XJT or C5 that are partially owned?

I know seniority is everything in this industry...just wondering what opinions are of how bad it’ll be in regards to furloughs and which regionals would most likely have the least amount.

Look at the last one WO didn’t do so well. Really there is no good answer. Go where you could be fine being stuck for 5-10 years.. you won’t know the answer tell 5 years after the recession is there really will be one..

Last week the headlines were filled with recession now. The yield curve inverted 2 vs 10 year bonds. It was 0.01% and only lasted a few hours. Then they went on to the new crisis of the day.

Today 34% of economists say they expect a recession in 2021. Most others, later or not taking a position.

The stock market is still climbing the wall of worry, it has yet to reach the euphoria of when my barber starts giving me stock tips. That is the sign we are ready for a recession. We ain’t there yet.

You don’t think the election coming up will play a roll?

I thought the last one would be bad for my portfolio, but it's made more in gains since Nov 2016 than I have in salary .

The election might take a toll quickly on the face value of the stock market, but the deeper stuff that actually brings recession doesn't change overnight. The election alone won't do it. See 2009.

Whole wheat or sourdough?

But seriously, it depends on who wins.

Anyone age 40 or below has had the most 401k gains in their lifetime.

Play a role? Will the news media scream recession? Probably. After all, since the Russia thing went away. . .

Will there be a recession before the election? Not what economists, wise investment people with above average track records, the former head of the the Fed, and the Sec. of Commerce say.

I don't think we'll see any effects of a recession until next year. When it does come, I don't fore see ferloughs, I think there is just enough pilots to fill a reduce schedule. I predict legacy slow their hiring, there won't be as much movement as there was. But every can change.

Well I'll not interject politics in this discussion like some other folks.

I hope there is no recession. There are things that make me worry like FedEx seeing reduced demand, auto and motor home sales weakening, and the stock market in constant turmoil with wild swings. These things don't exactly make me feel all warm and fuzzy.

If there was a recession would it be better to be at one of the low cost regionals, a WO or one of the larger regionals like OO or YX? I don't think we will know that answer until it's time and see what the c-suite execs decide. Don't forget while YX isn't a WO all 3 of the big legacies own a portion.

I think ideally you’re just in the top 2/3 of the seniority list anywhere rather than the bottom 1/3.

Total guess:

AA WO will likely fair okay as AA will still need to hire to replace 1000+ folks retiring each year. The top ~10% of each WO seniority list is set to retire in the next 3 years in addition to any who would flow to cover attrition at AA which won’t need to furlough most likely. Aa can retire its way to the right size and hire for retirements after any downsize is complete.

OO and XY will be relatively stable as they are the largest contact regionals for the legacies. They likely will have even stagnation than currently but they should still be in business on the backside of any recession.

I would like to point out that not every recession is the same. Each one is unique and effects different parts of the economy. The last one was exceptionally bad. Will the next one be like that? Who knows...

My point being, recessions are almost impossible to predict, but they are a natural cycle of an economy and you will live through multiple of them in your life time. They don't always effect certain parts of the economy the same as others. Will airlines be effected by the next one? Probably. How much? Who knows. We've never seen this amount of mandatory retirements before.

My completely worthless opinion is that whenever the next recession comes it will be no where near as bad as 2009, and many will be pleasantly surprised how much better the airline industry does this time.

We'll see.

I grew up in the 2009 recession, it nearly destroyed my parents. I don’t care if another one that bad is unlikely, I’m prepping like it’s going to be worse.

This! Nearly destroyed my parents as well.

Don't make the same mistakes as your parents. Read and follow Dave Ramsey or whatever conservative financial advisor you want. Budget conservatively, save aggressively, avoid debt, and be responsible. That makes recessions a whole lot less bad.

Oh yeah, don't take on massive debt to finance school, no matter what the Daytona Beach Boys Club tells you.

Even better, if your employment position is secure (good seniority, government, medical, etc) try to be prepared to take advantage of the situation... real estate and equities can be had at a deep discount, just need a slush fund ready.

This.............

Good to hear about the Gen Z financial planning, because as of right now your peers are not afraid to spend and borrow relative to millennials.

Since it got brought up....

https://youtu.be/Pzh9isw06TI