Tipping it bad is absolutely predictable. All the easy steps to alleviate the shortage have been done, but mandatory retirements of the baby boomer age pilots are not just continuing but accelerating while flying passenger miles are increasing.

It’s simple math.

There is not a true pilot shortage.

There will never be a pilot shortage at the majors.

Just my opinions.

Getting tired of this narrative.

Regionals aren't exactly "footing the bill" for us rotor pilots. The training funds usually come in lieu of a new hire bonus. So it is the individual pilot who pays in the end.

The opportunity for commercial helicopter pilots to convert to airplane ATP and go fly for a regional is not new. It just wasn't economically worthwhile for us to do so, until very recently.

And in terms of talent, I might only speak for myself, but I'm taking to it just fine thank you.

First, this isn't the majors forum and we aren't specifying a shortage at every level. A major airline can compensate for a shortage of pilots by upgauging so it is very obvious to say that of course there won't be a shortage. There will, however, be about a decade of incredible hiring at that level.

We have already seen two airlines, one particularly successful, effectively close their doors and primarily a response to a shortage of labor. Other airlines have been struggling to fill classes to staff anticipated growth for the last 5 years, even after increasing pay substantially. In economic terms, that is a shortage of supply.

Yes, there is a shortage. No, there is not a shortage of pilots available at the highest paying and most reputable jobs. But we aren't talking just about jobs at Envoy or Endeavor or Skywest or Delta or United. You don't find cracks in houses with the best foundation. Go to airlines built on cardboard to find them on the verge of collapse.

A bonus is just that. You sign now, you get paid. You have a type rating, you get paid more. The airline is effectively paying for a very expensive training and rating and all you have to do is sign a piece of paper. That isn't a narrative. That is just a fact. And this program isn't far removed from the days when new hires were unpaid until the end of training or had to pay for the type themselves. There companies aren't doing this out of the kindness of their heart.

Exactly ... the big debate on forums.flightinfo.com c 1997 - whether pay-for-training regionals were a good choice.

Current starting wage for regional FOs, including bonus, is roughly the median family income in the US. That isn’t rich, but 50% of the FAMILIES in the US make less than that.

If there was no shortage, they’d all be making minimum wage, sort of like most were making five years ago:

https://youtu.be/SwKuSMVCliQ

I think this is a good reminder it's not just pay. Pay alone RJ drivers should be higher but at least now it's a livable amount with defined progression to the left seat instead of years of uncertainty when upgrade will happen. It's also all the soft stuff, single occupancy paid hotels during training, positive space during the interview (as silly as it sounds, back in the day you had to find your own ticket at some regionals) etc. Regional airline pilots are almost treated like professionals.
Of course you could go to the 135 world and get a company card and home basing a lot easier now too.

Airline pilots should be compared to professions which require a degree, extensive/expensive post-grad training, and internship dues paying.

Regional pay is low by that standard, major pay is pretty good, in fact at the very top extreme end it has to beat almost any non-executive W-2 job.

Whether a regional job should be considered employment (under paid) or a very well-paid internship is debatable.

Except several regionals give significantly more to rtp guys than fixed wing guys who already have the time. Skywest for example, rtp guys get $20k in benefit/compensation that fixed wing guys don’t.

Along with a contract of some kind probably. 2 years I think it was at one point for many regionals (at the time I was applying), can't say for skywest in particular.

😂


(Filler)

2 year contract for 20k in flight training isn’t that bad of a deal. I was just making a point that airlines are willing to help some people get hours but not others, it’s not like they offer that 20k to everyone.

You mean they didn't give it to you no strings attached?! The humanity.

This totally still happens. I had an interview set up with a regional, which was to take place over 6 hours driving distance away from where I live, and they told me I would have to get myself there and pay for my own hotel room "if I needed one". The interview was at 9am Eastern, and I live in Central zone, so I guess I was supposed to start driving at 1am? I cancelled the interview.

Sounds like a place you'd be better off not working at. Kind of like one of the "good" regionals out there still doing double occupancy during initial.

Geez, I wasn't aware that was happening. That's pathetic.

I find it interesting that some people are saying there is no pilot shortage in a thread surrounded by employment ads from Republic, Air Wisconsin and Piedmont looking for pilots. Sure, there are plenty of low time commercial pilots that are working for peanuts or can't find a job, but thats normal for newbies in any industry. However once the pilot hits 1200 hours, they can quickly find employment as a 135 captain making decent wages and once they get their ATP, they will have numerous additional opportunities in the 121 and corporate world.

I'd sum it up as mainline has no pilot shortage and regionals have a pay shortage.


As the regionals continue to increase compensation they get more pilots. As for mainline, they'll always have people willing to go.

So now that regionals pay a living wage are you saying that the staffing problem will just move down one step to the 135 outfits?

I mean it's only a 300 hour difference between getting to fly a caravan and an E175!

CFI Bros seething that rotor pilots that went thru significantly harder training in every way possible get preferential treatment

RW training/flying is harder. Anyone who can do RW can likely succeed in FW, more so than vice versa.

But it's also different. RW people need enough FW experience so that some things become second nature (speed and landings for example). If you try to rush it, it doesn't go well, as some regionals have discovered. Just because it's legal, doesn't mean it's smart.

The average green beret is far and away better at hands-on operations in dynamic situations than average slacker RJ FO. But that doesn't a SOF operator has any business landing a jet... unless he gets trained to do so.

I only came out of the woodwork to the regionals because the pay increased as it did.

If regionals increased wages another $20-30K, then (I think) you'd have even more second career folks stepping up to the line.

Thus, I don't believe in a pilot shortage. I do believe in a small shortage of pilots willing to make what we're paid now.

Exactly. There is no true pilot shortage, just a shortage of pilots still willing to work for literally poverty wages. The companies that recognized this change and raised the pay are not experiencing any pilot shortage.

The companies that shut down due to a lack of pilots refused to adapt and refused to raise pilot pay appropriately.

For a very long time, people grew accustomed to poverty pilot wages, due to a surplus of willing pilots. Long term poverty wages led to an apparent shortage in some companies. In my opinion, there is neither a pilot surplus nor a shortage currently. It’s more balanced today than the past several decades.

Plus with OK starting wages today, many more people are completing flight training with a goal of entering the pilot career. I don’t see any pilot shortage in foreseeable future.

Some companies had actually evolved into a business model which depended on low pay. Lakes went OOB not because they refused to pay pilots but because their business model simply would not support the crew compensation you now see at the regionals. Lot less revenue on 1900, at some price point those folks will just drive to the nearest town with RJ service.

There are a bunch of 135 PIC jobs that pay better and have much better QOL than at a regional.
The only reason to work for a regional is the hope that it makes you a better candidate for a major/LCC.

I don't agree with dera much, but this is 100% correct.

Well there's also lifestyle flexibility. On average 135 pilots will have less flexible schedules and will have to live in base. If you find the right one in your home town, great.

Depends on your definition of QOL. Being someone’s whipping boy was not for me. If my airline wants me to come in on my day off I have 0 fear about saying no. If I don’t believe it’s safe to go, I have 0 fear about saying no.

I don’t have to go to six liquor stores to find diet cherry vanilla caffeine free Mexican Coke Zero for my super special client after flying a six leg day. I don’t have to wash out a plastic bucket with a hose in the woods after Sir Reginald’s caviar doesn’t agree with him.

I bid my schedule (which had given me Christmas and thanksgiving off the past two years!), fly the plane, help passengers when I can (of my own free will!) and go home. I can live wherever I want, and if I can’t make it to work due to issues outside my control I don’t get punished for it. I have an active safety program and can ASAP events without fear of reprisal. And I hit six figures.

At my 135 I worked Monday-Thursday, home every night, and made just over 100k. No flying on weekends or holidays, 6 paid sick leave days a year (with absolutely no repercussions if I used all of them).
There is not a single regional, anywhere, where you can have QOL like that.
We had CASS, zed benefits, ASAP, and all the other usual suspects.

There are great 135 companies there. They are not all crappy Caravan SIC jobs where you clean toilet bowls with your bare hands while loading a 400lbs elephant in the cargo compartment to get it overweight and out of W&B in a snowstorm.

There are.

But most of them resemble that ^^^

And the good ones tend to close up shop every few years with almost no job stability over the long run.

Great while they last, but they don't last long!

Nope.
The good ones have been going on for 10+ years.

10 years isn't long, its just a start! A decent career is 30+ years.

Exactly. Got an example of a good career at a regional for 30 years?

^^THIS^^

A heaping bowl of awesomeness!!!

Thanks for sharing.

I was in flight training when the towers got hit and took a break during the lost decade until 2018 at 45 years old. Wrapped up my I, C, CFI this past year and have been instructing ever since- closing in on 1K hrs (I'm the newbie).
Instructors (good instructors!) are an extremely valuable commodity for the foreseeable future- anyone thinking of getting into this industry now, do it now.
There has never been a better time. There will never be a better time, or another time, after this one- technology will be a heavy bearish force impacting any potential future hiring wave that might have existed in the future.
Do it now.

not even close, I came out of the corporate woodwork (135/91 since 08) got response from every regional I applied to.

does look like they are interviewing just about everyone but giving a few thanks but no to some.

there are probably 1.5-2 applications for every class slot out there (depending on regional)

some (republic) seem to have many more qualified candidates than they need.

A friend of mine believes the regionals will soon run out of career changers. These people got their pilot certificates 10+ years ago but left the industry. They have been flooding back to aviation due to big sign on paychecks and a much improved hourly rate.

Once this dries up he believes that regionals will go back to having only 3 or 4 people in a new hire class. For the non WO owned anyway.

I don't know, it would seem that they have done a really good job of developing their upstream recruiting. While I agree career changers are over, I think they have bought enough time to get people back into flight schools to fill the voids.

Scheduled 15 days off/ month, $1K every day over. Knew my schedule up to a year in advance. Never pushed & had ASAP. Didn't apply for any regionals when the company went under.