Delaying Interviews
 

Anyone with upcoming interviews considering delaying due to THEE virus? Two thoughts come to mind: 1) Travel and obvious risk of contracting the virus. Not likely a big deal if you're young(er). 2) Air travel 'blows up' until we finally get a light at the end of the tunnel and, meanwhile; interview, receive an offer/start date then get postponed, furloughed, whatever, with the hope you can return to your previous job.

Anyone already at the airlines with insights about the projected impact at your company would be great. Although the dynamics are changing so rapidly, at this point, who really knows the ramifications, tomorrow, in a week, in 2021...

This may not be the profession for you. If you are this worked up about a media hyped flu, then consider an office job somewhere.

Worst case scenario...you get a cold and have a cough for a day or two.

Fuel prices are way down, the government is waiving the taxes for airlines, and everything will be back to normal in a month or two. Look for increased profits this year!

Not wanting to travel for a job because of the virus that if you got would be 100% dependent on others traveling despite the virus.

1. No more danger traveling than going to a mall. Do a lot of hand washing and don’t unnecessarily get in anyone’s face. And again, most young people - at least those healthy enough to pass a Class 1 physical - aren’t in a whole lot of danger from this.
2. Air travel is unlikely to ‘blow up.’ International will take a hit (already has) because people don’t want to be sick or even quarantined in faraway places with strange sounding names. Domestically it might shrink but it’ll be temporary.

Recommendation: Get your seniority started - even if you knew ahead of time you were going to get furloughed.

What from my post suggested I was worked up? It's a pretty relevant topic of discussion for most, not all, eyeing the regionals within the next few months. And nothing, at this point, suggests things will be back to "normal" by April or May.

I think it's pretty safe to say it's no longer a media hyped event. Remember the last time the Coast Guard dropped test kits to cruise ships for a virus? Or, an entire region shutdown school for over 80,000 students? Stick with (*conspiracy theories) though...it's all a hoax.

I agree.

Filler

I would think you may want to get in sooner rather than later. One of the more likely impacts of this at the regional level is a drop off in hiring. Some of the more well staffed airlines may even suspend hiring at some point as their attrition slows due to lack of hiring at the next level. In other words, delay your interview and you run a decent chance of not being invited back for some time.

That makes sense. I'd also rather be at a regional if the music stops entirely and the timeline for movement from the regionals slows.

would you consider yourself easily agitated?


1. Completely disagree
2. disagree
3. neutral
4. agree
5. Completely agree

LOL why because I said 'stick with *? Too aggressive for you?

Go to an AA Wholly Owned regional. AA will have the largest demand for hiring pilots for due to retirements. If hiring needs shrink to say one class per month vice the current two, but don’t stop, AA WO flows will take upto 75% of those classes depending on size in accordance with the flow through agreements at each of the three regionals. If AA stops hiring all together then you’re in the same boat as everyone else.

Are you kidding me? You "go to a AA wholly Regional" guys are something else. You just answered a question he didn't even ask but yet feel a need to interject yourselves into every thread. But yeah, go to an AA wholly Regional if you love low pay, horrible QOL, and management who has no incentive to fix any of it because they have bonuses to sucker you in and flow to string you along keep you there.

Except for the fact that you’d be stuck at, say, Envoy with subpar pay and work rules. Now is a better time than ever to NOT go somewhere with flow.

Delaying Interviews
 

The flip side is that at an AA WO you are far more likely to be furloughed than at any other carrier if things get bad enough. If AA cuts domestic flying and starts furloughs the WO regionals could actually be the first flying cut. Other regionals have contracts. Those contracts must be paid whether the flying occurs or not. Totally different at a WO. If you don’t believe me research it a bit.

But......FLOW!!!!!!!

$50 an hour 1st year FO, $86 an hour 3rd year captain. Sap gives round one line holders total control over their schedule. It’s not sunshine and roses but it’s not what you’re painting either.

Edit to not double post: More than half of our attrition is outside the flow, so they are incentivized to keep us.

There are downsides to every company. The most recent Republic pilot picked up by AA was there 14 years, while the most recent AA flows have been on property under five years. In job field where every month delay costs $25k at the tail end of your career, it can mean Millions in lost earning going to a place that’s difficult to escape from once you’ve been on property for a while.

With AAs retirements, AA will be hiring more, and longer than than the other majors even during times of uncertainty like now. If hiring does happen to stop, AA will start hiring sooner also (AA started hiring well before it’s legacy competition at the end of the lost decade). Either way the AA flows will be the last to have the legacy hiring door shut on them and the first that it opens for.

The repugnant mafia is out thick today! Enjoys those shiny RJs fellas. Maybe deny some jumpseats and you can really have yourself a ball!

If flying gets cut that deeply, you think they're going to park all the RJs that they outright own in the desert for tons of money, versus declaring bankruptcy and voiding your contracts and letting your company deal with parking them?

Delaying Interviews
 

You do realize AA was gasping for air while the other guys were making billions right?

And I’m just saying that’s what has been done in the past. It’s much easier to “right-size” your own operations than declare bankruptcy just to escape a contract with a regional partner. How is declaring bankruptcy more logical?

What does AA "gasping for air" (not sure when you are talking about??) have anything to do with this conversation? I have a decent handle on what is going on at AA my friend... This conversation is about a hypothetical drastic cut in flying, pretty sure if that happens to the extent that planes are parked, bankruptcy wouldn't be a stretch

You work at xjet, and will soon be flying new-to-you airplanes from a shuttered regional. I was also specifically talking about RAH, who filed for bankruptcy in 2016 essentially to dump some turboprops. Not sure how you don't understand that this stuff happens in this industry with some regularity.

Delaying Interviews
 

I’m referring to the lack of profitability at AA given the boom in aviation. And if you are referring to RAH you are again suggesting that AA would prefer to just back out of a contract with RAH than park it’s own aircraft. You may be mistaken on which would be more costly. Very mistaken.

But that flow...

He is referring to RAH and the bankruptcy they declared before you ever worked at an airline.

We get it, you think the flow is overrated. Not what we are talking about here, but your point is clear. Glad you aren't at a WO then. Moving on to relevant topics....

I don't think you understand what the government allows an airline to get away with under chapter 11. They will do whatever they can to reduce costs, and a contract for planes they don't have to deal with is easier than parking your own jets. Know how much it costs to pickle a jet in the desert? Go research, you'll be shocked

• $1.686B
• $1.412B
• $1.282B

Last three years.

B stands for billion, by the way.

GASPING

How does that compare to the other legacies? Just to put those numbers into context?

• American Airlines Group annual revenue for 2019 was $45.768B, a 2.75% increase from 2018.
• American Airlines Group annual revenue for 2018 was $44.541B, a 4.5% increase from 2017.
• American Airlines Group annual revenue for 2017 was $42.622B, a 6.18% increase from 2016.

• Delta Air Lines annual revenue for 2019 was $47.007B, a 5.78% increase from 2018.
• Delta Air Lines annual revenue for 2018 was $44.438B, a 8.02% increase from 2017.
• Delta Air Lines annual revenue for 2017 was $41.138B, a 4.28% increase from 2016.

• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual revenue for 2019 was $43.259B, a 4.74% increase from 2018.
• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual revenue for 2018 was $41.303B, a 9.31% increase from 2017.
• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual revenue for 2017 was $37.784B, a 3.35% increase from 2016.
• 
  

• American Airlines Group annual gross profit for 2019 was $12.371B, a 4.05% increase from 2018.
• American Airlines Group annual gross profit for 2018 was $11.89B, a 8.76% decline from 2017.
• American Airlines Group annual gross profit for 2017 was $13.032B, a 1.65% decline from 2016.

• Delta Air Lines annual gross profit for 2019 was $17.792B, a 8.55% increase from 2018.
• Delta Air Lines annual gross profit for 2018 was $16.39B, a 1.18% decline from 2017.
• Delta Air Lines annual gross profit for 2017 was $16.585B, a 1.77% decline from 2016.

• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual gross profit for 2019 was $29.663B, a 7.55% increase from 2018.
• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual gross profit for 2018 was $27.58B, a 3.11% increase from 2017.
• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual gross profit for 2017 was $26.747B, a 0.19% decline from 2016.

Sorry about the format I’m on my phone

I agree if AA goes bankrupt they can cancel contracts. You assume that’s the best thing for you then ok. Seems reasonable.

Are there nett profit numbers anywhere?

If my company goes bankrupt, it’s far from the best thing from me. Just saying how I believe it will play out

• American Airlines Group annual net income for 2019 was $1.686B, a 19.41% increase from 2018.
• American Airlines Group annual net income for 2018 was $1.412B, a 10.14% increase from 2017.
• American Airlines Group annual net income for 2017 was $1.282B, a 50.39% decline from 2016

• Delta Air Lines annual net income for 2019 was $4.767B, a 21.14% increase from 2018.
• Delta Air Lines annual net income for 2018 was $3.935B, a 22.78% increase from 2017.
• Delta Air Lines annual net income for 2017 was $3.205B, a 23.6% decline from 2016.

• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual net income for 2019 was $3.009B, a 41.8% increase from 2018.
• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual net income for 2018 was $2.122B, a 0.98% decline from 2017.
• United Airlines Holdings Inc annual net income for 2017 was $2.143B, a 4.07% decline from 2016.

Some other things to consider with the numbers above:

Average fleet age:

AAL: 10.8
DAL: 15.8
UAL: 15.1

Shareholder debt-to-equity ratio as of 12/2019:
DAL: 92%
UAL: 159%
AAL: -18,181% ($21.45B debt vs. -$0.12B equity)

So they finance all these new planes through debt, that info is not new. But they are not “gasping for air”.

If you're taking the longer view...

Environmental concerns may well drive rapid transitions to newer, more efficient equipment types and that may have to happen inside the normal life cycle of aircraft depreciation. So somewhat older planes (vs. newer of the same type) might be better if you have to unload them earlier than anticipated.

If I were an airline manager, I'd be trying to guess when the new technology on the horizon will inject step-change fuel efficiency (and thus carbon efficiency) into the market and time my fleet planning accordingly.

you are absolutely correct. However it takes months to get through the training
so you’re likely not online until the fall

You could apply this logic to a vast variety of technologies, from more efficient engine options to supersonic and single pilot aircraft. Good luck with figuring that out

This post is not going to age well

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Just about any post I've ever seen that includes the phrase: "...this may not be the profession for you...," is usually trash and comes off as being written by a dunce. That post you're referring to proved no different.