Choices choices choices
 

Hey all, long time lurker first time poster. I made this super simple spreadsheet on Excel. It takes me about five minutes to just type my name in Excel. Anyhow, I know there is a lot more to consider than just Minimum Monthly Guarantee but as previously stated I've reached my Excel limitations already ! I figured one of you Excel nerds ( I say that with all the love in my heart, I'm just nerdy in other ways... ) have probably considered and made similar pay comparisons.

https://i.ibb.co/YkHL4Jh/Simple-Pay-Comparison.png

I made the assumption of the lower payscale at AA ( 737 ) and stopped at 15 years because I'm old. Basically looking at ~4ish years till flow date. I also have an opportunity on the table, obviously. I also went with a 5 year upgrade time.

Thanks for any input !

When you consider investing then LCC comes out way ahead

This is NOT the time to tack yourself on the bottom of a seniority list​​​​​​.

That having been said, are you able or willing to live in base better one place than another?

Currently live in the ULCC junior base and wouldn't mind staying here.

I commute to WO base with future plan to move to an AA base when I flowed.

Not too worried about being at the bottom of a list at this point. While there is definitely a need to be concerned, I'll be glad when the Nightly Opinion... I mean... News... finds its next shiny object.

Good point about investing.

You’ll be well ahead in DC contributions for the first 9 years at the ULCC as well. Years 10-15 in AA DC probably won’t be able to make up the difference.

Start living in base then.

Can always keep applying to the majors.

I didn't know that there were actually any pilots that actually thought that the ULCC's would still be around in 15+ years.

They are a flash in the pan. Look at all of the airlines of the past that have gone out of business. The current ULCC's are the same. Spirit is the new Peoples Express, Midway, or Hooters Air.

Can you make the spreadsheet go to 25 years?

Southwest was totally a flash in the pan. America West... more like American Airlines, amirite?

You do know that each of the current LCCs have been in business for over twenty years now, yeah?

I used to study this stuff religiously. Looking at prognostications and numbers for retirement and 401K and seniority movement. And then I realized that what every older pilot who’s seen a thing or 2 has said has been right all along...

Its all pointless. Too much changes too quickly to realistically try and predict too far in this industry. Make decisions based on what you know to be true today and what’s best for you now. Some things are predictable but overall this industry is a complete roll of the dice.

If you're old and won't benefit from a long run as a NB CA (or get anywhere near WB's) then the difference between legacy and LCC's gets down to fine points like geography and the time-value of money. That last only matters if you'll be doing significant saving/investing sooner rather than later.

Does this factor in the 16% AA puts in free of charge every year?

I’m not sure they are just going to disappear. Perhaps bought out but it would be hard to push them out of the market completely.

As well as input and viewpoints I hadn't considered a goal of the original post was hoping someone had made a more complete Spreadsheet than I know how to do - so no, it does not include the 16% or training pay or any other factor that I didn't but should have considered.

In respect directly to the 25 years - I just made a simple but cumbersome formula of -
=(B2*B3+B2*B4+B2*B5...B2*B17)*12
because when I tried to make it into an array type of thing it didn't work -
=(Sum(B3:B17*$B$2))*12
and only returned an "invalid", I tried a couple of different permutations but they didn't work...

So to answer your question, the only way I could change to go to Year 25 would be to manually add the cumbersome formula whereas I had hoped that if I wanted to change it/share it you could just change the variables of the array i.e. B3:B17 to B3:B27

I wouldn't even know where to begin with the 16% additional, yearly pay increases or other variables - from a math/Excel point of view unless I did some large clunky thing

$2.5M * 15% = $375K DC at NK.

$2.4M AA+WO wages - $0.3M WO wages = $2.1M AA wages.
$2.1M * 16% = $336K DC at AA.

No like button...

Simpler than I had in my head !

Thanks.

So is the assumption this thread is trying to make that any pilot with less than 20 years until forced retirement is financially better off going to spirit, if speaking solely on pay?

Just doesn’t seem right. Might add that in theory AA pay will be going up with new contract, whenever that may happen.

Not making any assumptions, other than ones stated i.e. upgrade times, narrow body, etc

Putting pen to paper, proverbially, to help make an informed decision for myself.

While finances are not the sole reason I would choose A, B or C it certainly is a consideration.

We do not get a 16% DC for our entire salary our entire careers.... it caps out

I agree that the math will change a lot when the big 3 get new contracts soon.

The Legacies aren't the only airlines that will get new ccontracts

It’s interesting to me that someone suggested a legacy job would be more secure than a LCC job.

When the economy tanks people will cut back on international flights and extra leg room.

I’d think in a downturn a LCC would still be able to retain their customers and steal customers from legacies. Legacies would feel the pain more due to higher fixed costs.

Soon as in 5 years or so. Aka 1/3 of the way through the OPs. And the U/LCC will get one shorty (another 2 years or so) after.

The $ increases 10 years down the line won’t be bing enough to make up for the jump in pay for the first 5 years by going to the LCC now in a 15 year time horizon.

IF you make the assumption that NK will grow regardless of outside factors such as the economy... they are a young pilot group and will not have the kind of retirements that the big three will enjoy.

AA has some warts but IF their geography works you (ie live in a hub) you could enjoy essentially guaranteed seniority progression, and therefore pay and/or QOL progression.

The economy will generally affect all airlines. But the retirements don't lie, worst case is that the music stops for two years if they go to 67 (but then you can still make it up on the back end).

NK is a pretty safe bet if the economy stays good long enough to get you the growth you need for upgrade. Only you can read your personal crystal ball on that.

The LCC customer base would probably feel more economic pain in a downturn. Could LCCs steal customers from legacies? I don't know.

I wouldn't expect any particular sector in the airline industry to enjoy a windfall in a downturn, although the regionals kind of did once.