Furlough history
 

Historically, what has been the percentage from the bottom of the seniority list has been furloughed?

And as a result is there precedence for downgrading junior captains to FOs just to fill the seats - and Im assuming that would come with a reduction back to FO pay?

Pardon my ignorance, but I have only seen the "good times" in the 121/regional world for the past few years

Well historically it’s been from 0 to 100%. So no way of knowing how furloughs will go based on past experience. And yes, if there are enough furloughs, junior captains will get downgraded to FO, going back to FO pay at which ever longevity they are.


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Conventional wisdom is that top 80% is safe-ish.

Last few go-around (post 9/11) it was 10-15% furloughs at the majors. Specific numbers will vary by your airline's financial circumstances and in this case route structure since unlike a typical slowdown some destinations are very unpopular or outright banned.

Regionals can vary from growth due to down-shifting of mainline flying, to liquidation.

I don’t even feel safe in the top 55% right now. It’s getting ugly, FAST.