Current situation and student pilots
 

I finally start working towards my certifications and ratings in May but is this downturn going to affect me and future student pilots in the long run? I would say I’m about 2 to 2 1/2 years away from the airlines. Will they still be hiring? I’ve heard Compass is furloughing and TSA is shutting down so it’s kinda concerning.

If the airlines aren’t hiring in 2+ years we have much bigger problems. Stay focused, get your hours, the regionals will be here waiting for you.

Compass and TSA were downhill regardless if there was a pandemic going on.

A lot happens in two years. Other people catching viruses and the stock market going down doesn't prevent pilots from turning 65 years old. If consumer driven fluctuations or world events make you think twice, you probably shouldn't enter into aviation.

Compass and TSA had their problems and were most likely on the way out regardless of Covid. They had both lost contracts or didn't have them renewed and thus caused their problems. It sucks, but is the nature of the regional world.

For you, I would worry to much about this. It should all be well over by the time you are ready to start so keep going and check back in a year.

Consider yourself a product or commodity for a moment.
Now think of yourself having at least a 3-5 year lead time if not longer.
What I mean by lead time is the time between product ordered and product ready.

0 - CFI 9-12 months
CFI - ATP 24 months

Now consider life’s little interferences and part time training and you’re at 5 years.
In basic economics this is called the ‘pork cycle’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle

This is why you should start (part time self funded) training when the market is bad.
Not when it at its peak.
Because of your lead time.
Nothing that will happen in the next 2 years will have any effect on you.
Yes, airlines will tank but that’s because they were on their death bed already.
Those pilots will be dissolved in the market or choose non aviation employment long before you’re ready.

Historically speaking, those entering training at downturns are generally well positioned once they finish and start moving up through the ranks, due to growth on the other side.

I knew guys who in 2003-2004 finally bailed from their CFI gigs. A few years later I was sitting in the left seat of an RJ, but back then the future looked bleak.

Same thing in 2008-2009, people, bailed to become nurses or lawyers or whatever. Guess what, in 2010 the regionals started picking up and by 2012 you could write your own check to whichever company you wanted to go to and a few years later bonuses were raining down with some of the most hiring at the majors in decades.

2014 saw the highest growth in air travel in modern history. Had you started training in 2008, you'd probably be sitting at a major right now.

Haha well in 2008 I was 8 or 9 years old but thanks for the info it does somewhat ease my concern

Out of all the pilots in this forum, you and other people still getting their ratings have the least to worry about. nah, you good bra.

My point was past history shows if you begin training when times were bad, you end up in a good position. On 9/11 I was just starting college and my flight training.

Past performance quote goes here...

On a side note have you thought about the impact of single pilot or autonomous aircraft in the future? Europe’s FAA expects single pilot airliners in 10 years and no pilot in 15.

Even if that gets pushed some, it severely impacts your long term career prospects.

Damn I'm old....

Europe doesn't have an FAA, but I'm sure you meant EASA. Don't worry about autonomous jets either. There will be too heavy of a push from unions to prevent it, even after consumer stigma is alleviated. We were suppose to have "Back to the Future" style hover boards in 2015, so 15 years is way overly optimistic for heavy jets to carry passengers. Keep in mind the electric car was invented 130 years ago, but that idea was also stifled!

Now is the time to really question how much you want it! There are no guarantees.

Had I said EASA he wouldn't have a clue what I was talking about.

"Europe's version of the FAA " but I was too lazy to write all of that out.

Don't believe me? It's coming, and faster than you think.

BigKitten229180

I got my Private in 1992 and it took till 2017 to get where I wanted to be.
Thats 25 years.....
You need stamina and backbone in this industry.
If not you’ll fall by the wayside somewhere along the path.
70% doesn’t even finish their Private...food for thought.

In fairness, that includes recreational starts.

Career-oriented students do much better statistically.

1993 for me. Right behind you brother.

Drone airliners in 15 years?? Lmao.

I remember back in the early 2000’s when the FAA said they were overhauling the NAS as part of a project called NextGen. I think originally they said it should be complete by around 2010.

Now they’re saying 2025.

It will end up being 2030.

Nothing moves quick in a heavily regulated safety first industry like aviation. Drone airlines won’t be a factor for anyone reading this forum right now.

This. No way could automated airliners be built at a reasonable cost yet... it could probably be done but pilots are still far cheaper than some kind of combined Manhattan project/moon shot. Even if they could build them, they can't certify or insure them without massive changes in infrastructure and regulation. Then there's political and PR hurdles.

It's still a good time to be a student pilot, you can probably get discounts in training if you play your cards right, plus fuel should be cheaper for at least a year. By the time you're ready for the airlines the economy will likely have snapped back to something more normal... and while the economy might take a time out, the retirements will not.

I'm sure you also chose Blockbuster over Netflix and doubled down and went with HD DVD's instead of Blue Ray.