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Old 03-26-2020, 09:15 AM
  #91  
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Originally Posted by rld1k View Post
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fea...ow-no-symptoms

These fatality numbers are based on people being tested. The majority of people don't even show symptoms, the vast majority of those who do have mild symptoms. The people being tested are the small minority that actually get sick. Pretty obvious to see how these numbers are off by an order of magnitude.
Have you followed the WHO situation reports? Those are informative and just present the numbers. Some places in Europe are well above 2%.

Someone on the XJT forum posted a paper being reviewed right now. It shows that the fatality rate through models ranges from 0.5% to 4%. It’s got a lot of noise and not enough sampling (first month in Wuhan) but it acknowledges that non-symptom carriers will change the numbers (for the better?) but at the moment their models on fatality rates are not looking good for asymptomatic, affected, and hospitalized. What the numbers agreed on was 20 days +/- 4 days you die if you’ve got it for many of their baseline models, if you are one of the 0.5%-4% that do die. Scary.

Check out the WHO situation reports when you got a chance and apply that delay to the new observations from 3 weeks before. However that article you posted is interesting about false positives. Great example of statistics in action. However, it makes it even scarier when we can separate the real coronavirus carriers and their death rates. That means the 2% fatality rate is among both carriers and non-carriers. Yikes.
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Old 03-26-2020, 09:16 AM
  #92  
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No one has any idea what the fatality rate is. We know the fatality rate of people who were confirmed infected.

We have no way to tell how many people are infected and will remain asymptomatic. They won't go into the survived bucket.

We have no counts of people who have symptoms, have been told "you probably have it" by their doctor, and are then told to stay home and not get tested. I have a few friends in this bucket. These people won't go in the tested positive bucket unless they end up in an ICU. If they recover at home, then they probably won't go in any bucket.

TL;DR: until we can test everyone, we'll have no idea what the fatality rate is.
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Old 03-26-2020, 09:38 AM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by OpMidClimax View Post
Louisiana, Houston, Florida, Atlanta.... terrible things are going to happen there..

New York is doing nothing short of heroic.... thousands of lives are being saved there everyday. West Chester is proof that disaster can be averted with early measures...

Italy is proof what will happen when people do not listen to science...

Quote.....Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of the governing Democratic Party, visited Milan on February 27, with a group of students, encouraging people to go out as a sign of strength against the coronavirus threat.

“We must not change our habits,” he wrote in a social media post, according to the Guardian. “Our economy is stronger than fear: let’s go out for an aperitivo, a coffee or to eat a pizza.”

He tested positive with the coronavirus nine days later.

......
Fortunately much of America is not being personally affected other than economically right now, but our urban areas may suffer terrible long term consequences.

Hang in there everyone. We will get through this and be stronger. For most of us it will be a blip on our career that we will tell some 20 year old FO that thinks they know it all that they really know nothing.
Cuomo, the Westchester County health department, and other agencies followed the advice of scientists and top public health experts. Other states could have followed their lead but instead made decisions that will likely cause uncountable deaths in states like Florida.
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Old 03-26-2020, 11:35 AM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by PaloAlto View Post
Cuomo, the Westchester County health department, and other agencies followed the advice of scientists and top public health experts. Other states could have followed their lead but instead made decisions that will likely cause uncountable deaths in states like Florida.
https://m.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2020/mar/23/governor-rejects-state-lockdown-covid-19-mississip/
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Old 03-26-2020, 04:00 PM
  #95  
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Originally Posted by OpMidClimax View Post
https://m.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2020/mar/23/governor-rejects-state-lockdown-covid-19-mississip/

No, Mississippi is NOT going to be like China. While reluctant, China accepted the science, marshaled resources, and saw a decrease in their contagion.

Some elected officials are making decisions on ego and belief. Thousands of their constituents are going to die unnecessarily because of it. How many times does Darwin need to be proven right? Oh, there we go with science again!
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Old 03-27-2020, 06:04 AM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by KCaviator View Post
Trans States: RIP 😢
Compass: RIP 😥

Who’s next? This is getting ugly...

My guesses are, in the order of probability:

1) Silver
2) Air Wisconsin
3) GoJet
4) CommutAir
5) Piedmont
6) Mesa
7) Republic
8) ExpressJet
9) PSA, Envoy, Endeavor, Horizon
10) SkyWest
I would say that's a pretty fair assessment. I'm going to print it out and put it under my yoke clip....with your name.
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Old 03-28-2020, 07:06 AM
  #97  
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1. Silver- will close

2. commute air, expressjet, air Wisconsin and gojet will merge or fold. Is each carrier only flying a small amount of places for United sustainable? Esp with reduced routes.....

3. Envoy, endeavor and horizon will be fine

4. Mesa maybe not

5. Skywest and republic will be fine


*no one take offense, I’m just passing the time, which I have a lot of thanks to my airline closing*
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Old 03-28-2020, 10:15 AM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by Lear90210 View Post
1. Silver- will close

2. commute air, expressjet, air Wisconsin and gojet will merge or fold. Is each carrier only flying a small amount of places for United sustainable? Esp with reduced routes.....

3. Envoy, endeavor and horizon will be fine

4. Mesa maybe not

5. Skywest and republic will be fine


*no one take offense, I’m just passing the time, which I have a lot of thanks to my airline closing*
#4 might be #2 who knows...
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Old 03-28-2020, 12:04 PM
  #99  
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Update:

1) Republic
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Old 03-28-2020, 12:19 PM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by KCaviator View Post
Update:

1) Republic
Why would you say that?
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