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Old 03-25-2020, 08:53 PM   #81  
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That's the point, we currently don't know who has it because there aren't enough tests. The virus spreads rampantly (reference last post) so we freeze everything with a quarantine until we have a way to isolate whose infected and contain the spread. Then and only then can we start trying to return to normal. But with the weight of a $20T economy being held hostage by COVID19 tests, PPE, very specific medical equipment, and CDC tracking logistics, the problem has near unlimited resources and a highly motivated capitalist economy to make it happen. It can get solved. As long as Wall Street doesn't screw it up by forcing an outbreak that can't be contained.

Also, 46% of the people who tested positive on the cruise ship were asymptomatic:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e3_w
Even with those numbers, allowed to run rampant in the population, the 2% fatality rate (which is really the best case) become 1%, roughly 60% need to get the virus and survive for herd immunity, so that's still 2 million deaths, and 20 million that need to be hospitalized. So, even if we theoretically had enough beds to treat 20 million people, that would still come out more deaths than all US wars combined and it'd likely lead to a recession or a depression that could be solved economically.
2% fatality is high by a magnitude of 20x. Stop reading BuzzFeed and vox for news.
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Old 03-25-2020, 09:16 PM   #82  
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That's the point, we currently don't know who has it because there aren't enough tests. The virus spreads rampantly (reference last post) so we freeze everything with a quarantine until we have a way to isolate whose infected and contain the spread. Then and only then can we start trying to return to normal. But with the weight of a $20T economy being held hostage by COVID19 tests, PPE, very specific medical equipment, and CDC tracking logistics, the problem has near unlimited resources and a highly motivated capitalist economy to make it happen. It can get solved. As long as Wall Street doesn't screw it up by forcing an outbreak that can't be contained.

Also, 46% of the people who tested positive on the cruise ship were asymptomatic:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e3_w
Even with those numbers, allowed to run rampant in the population, the 2% fatality rate (which is really the best case) become 1%, roughly 60% need to get the virus and survive for herd immunity, so that's still 2 million deaths, and 20 million that need to be hospitalized. So, even if we theoretically had enough beds to treat 20 million people, that would still come out more deaths than all US wars combined and it'd likely lead to a recession or a depression that could be solved economically.
This problem does not have "near unlimited resources." If you just got laid off from your job as a server you aren't going to immediately turn around and start producing ventilators in your basement and selling them to hospitals. It's a little more logistically complicated than that.
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Old 03-25-2020, 10:07 PM   #83  
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My cousin is a dr in Brooklyn ny... i talked with her last night.. she just cried on the phone...

It's bad.. worse than anyone could have predicted or prepared for. Her exact words... "im losing so many young people..."

Unfortunately as regionals we are indirectly responsible for transmitting this to every pudunk city in America from our hubs.. of which the local hospital had maybe 1 or 4 ICU beds and 1 or 2 ventilators. Many hospitals are at or above capacity and it's just the beginning

Current numbers world wide are 4 percent mortality. Allot of the optimistic numbers came from south Korea... south Korea has an amazing healthcare system, great public health policy and early intervention. They traced their spread, the church group, and isolated very quickly.

Stay safe.. care for your family, care for your neighbor.. we have a rough 6 months ahead of us.
You don’t know you transported it. You certainly didn’t know early on. Now we are transporting help. Don’t guilt yourself.
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Old 03-26-2020, 03:34 AM   #84  
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This problem does not have "near unlimited resources." If you just got laid off from your job as a server you aren't going to immediately turn around and start producing ventilators in your basement and selling them to hospitals. It's a little more logistically complicated than that.
Your family goes first!

The guy has made it known where he stands. We know the kind of guy he is. Can we just leave it at that?
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Old 03-26-2020, 04:07 AM   #85  
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2% fatality is high by a magnitude of 20x. Stop reading BuzzFeed and vox for news.
.. You say as you make an outlandishly BS claim with no source:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...y-ratio-2020-3
Keep in mind the virus, on average, kills people in 14 days so the majority of US cases haven't reached 14 days yet. I really want to see the source you're using that paints this rosy picture.
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Old 03-26-2020, 04:23 AM   #86  
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This problem does not have "near unlimited resources." If you just got laid off from your job as a server you aren't going to immediately turn around and start producing ventilators in your basement and selling them to hospitals. It's a little more logistically complicated than that.
And you think people are going to start going back to restaurants anyway? If you're a server. hotel clerk, etc then you have a couple months to find a new line of work, regardless of whether or not the quarantine is lifted by the federal govt.

You don't buy a ventilator on Etsy. Ford and Tesla are spooling up ventilator assembly lines, right now. A lot can get done in a few weeks with a free capitalist economy.

Also, want to see the difference between taking action and taking very little action or reacting too late (aka being irresponsible). Here' a side-by-side comparison of the responses of KY and TN:
https://www.wave3.com/2020/03/24/gra...es-goes-viral/
Which situation looks more manageable?
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Old 03-26-2020, 08:05 AM   #87  
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.. You say as you make an outlandishly BS claim with no source:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...y-ratio-2020-3
Keep in mind the virus, on average, kills people in 14 days so the majority of US cases haven't reached 14 days yet. I really want to see the source you're using that paints this rosy picture.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

These fatality numbers are based on people being tested. The majority of people don't even show symptoms, the vast majority of those who do have mild symptoms. The people being tested are the small minority that actually get sick. Pretty obvious to see how these numbers are off by an order of magnitude.
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Old 03-26-2020, 08:34 AM   #88  
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The risk of the pandemic must be weighed against the risk of spiraling into a deep depression. Those types of cataclysmic economic events have historically led to tyranny, famine, and war.
You set up a false premise, like either (1) economic catastrophe OR (2) taking drastic steps to stay home. You assume (wrongly) that we can all simply just carry on and there will be just maybe some loss of life, but business as usual.

Dude, got news for you. It’s BOTH economically AND medically damaging. This isn’t a choice and we don’t get to make it. Here is some simple math for you: In two days EVERY ICU bed in New York City will be FILLED. What do you think happens when people start getting turned away? Hopefully it won’t happen in NY because they’re flattening the curve, but watch Louisiana and Florida. They haven’t.

Do you think you just say “go back to work” and everyone will do that? Not likely.
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Old 03-26-2020, 09:01 AM   #89  
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You set up a false premise, like either (1) economic catastrophe OR (2) taking drastic steps to stay home. You assume (wrongly) that we can all simply just carry on and there will be just maybe some loss of life, but business as usual.

Dude, got news for you. It’s BOTH economically AND medically damaging. This isn’t a choice and we don’t get to make it. Here is some simple math for you: In two days EVERY ICU bed in New York City will be FILLED. What do you think happens when people start getting turned away? Hopefully it won’t happen in NY because they’re flattening the curve, but watch Louisiana and Florida. They haven’t.

Do you think you just say “go back to work” and everyone will do that? Not likely.
Louisiana, Houston, Florida, Atlanta.... terrible things are going to happen there..

New York is doing nothing short of heroic.... thousands of lives are being saved there everyday. West Chester is proof that disaster can be averted with early measures...

Italy is proof what will happen when people do not listen to science...

Quote.....Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of the governing Democratic Party, visited Milan on February 27, with a group of students, encouraging people to go out as a sign of strength against the coronavirus threat.

“We must not change our habits,” he wrote in a social media post, according to the Guardian. “Our economy is stronger than fear: let’s go out for an aperitivo, a coffee or to eat a pizza.”

He tested positive with the coronavirus nine days later.

......
Fortunately much of America is not being personally affected other than economically right now, but our urban areas may suffer terrible long term consequences.

Hang in there everyone. We will get through this and be stronger. For most of us it will be a blip on our career that we will tell some 20 year old FO that thinks they know it all that they really know nothing.
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Old 03-26-2020, 09:06 AM   #90  
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https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms


These fatality numbers are based on people being tested. The majority of people don't even show symptoms, the vast majority of those who do have mild symptoms. The people being tested are the small minority that actually get sick. Pretty obvious to see how these numbers are off by an order of magnitude.

Right, I posted a link earlier that said 46% of the infected people on the cruise ship didn't exhibit symptoms. How are you saying that the 2% fatality rate is blown out of proportion by 20x? Where did you get that number?


2% fatality rate is roughly 20 times deadlier than the flu, but that's the only correlation I can see from your statement and COVID19, but I haven't seen any data that indicates COVID19 only has a 0.1% fatality rate (glassing over COVID19 being much more contagious).


Even on the cruise ship, where they tested everybody, 800 people got the virus, 46% were asymptomatic, and 10 people died. 10/800*100 = 1.25% with proper healthcare, including asymptomatic people. If anything, the fact people can be asymptomatic and contagious with a virus that's, in the cruise ship's case, 12.5 times deadlier than the flu (with proper medical care), should be even more of a reason to quarantine until we at least know what we're up against.
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