corvid19 furloughed
 

come end of September, massive layoff will begin for all airlines across the board. Already AA, DL, UA have told their employees to get their affairs in order. Many of us that been around seen this before, but never to this large scale. Usually the turn around point is a decade, lets see if that holds true. Economic events is among the leading factor as to why, there is a shortage, that and pay. The majors are going to be furloughing people, and until they don't call everyone back, they won't be hiring new pilots. Delta said they are permanently grouding 300 airplanes. If they don't get enough people to volunteer and retire, which they never do, they will furlough pilots. That's going to be roughly 750 of the most junior guys. AA,UA, jetblue, spirit, SW are in the same boat.
There is a little slither of a light, cargo, and 135. But you best hurry,, because they will be getting full quick.

but but but but but but but but but but........rEtiReMenTs

The end is near!!!!!!!

Who is Corvid?

Gotta watch out for those “slithers of light”. Dangerous ya know.

But you’re probably right. Side hustle...it’s time.

Lots of misinformation here. AA has never said anything even close to "get your affairs in order". They haven't even hinted at it, and the F word hasn't been brought up in talks with our union. Is there a solid possibility that it happens? You bet, and those who aren't preparing are not playing their cards right.

But to come on here and spread this kind of misinformation isn't the right move. It takes away from the real information out there. Tool of the day. Learn to spell while you're at it.

It's not out of the realm of possibilities that one or more of the majors will cease to exist. Aa for example has so much debt that even chp. 11 might not work, especially when revenue is be so low.

AAG has more cash on hand than any other airline. You doom and gloom guys who think AA might go TU are funny.

Where has Delta said they are permanently parking 300 jets? The only confirmed fleet they’ve decided on is the 88/90. Anything else is just rumor right now.

Where is that 750 junior guys furloughed comment coming from? If that’s in some way tied to 300 parked jets I don’t see how those numbers jive.

Man, I hate these types of threads...no substance and all speculation from many different unconfirmed sources.

While I agree things are going to get bad in October, you are essentially just talking nonsense in this post, literally and figuratively. I dont think anything you posted is actually confirmed.

Reminds of a ThKooj post.

And more debt than all others combined. Negative equity.

Those that are already at mainline will probably experience some pain. People at the regionals are another story. Getting hired at anything above a regional at this point is going to be a distant fantasy for many years. The regionals have no control. Mainline controls the flying and they can modify or dump the agreements in bankruptcy.

I get that long term, that debt is an issue. But for right now, in this crisis, the only thing that matters is how much cash you have on hand. Being able to pay the bills and keep the lights on before you have to start burning the furniture to heat the house (layoffs, dumping aircraft, etc). AA also has $43 billion PP&E which is much more than other majors and bodes well for the company in the long term, if/when they get through this (see: cash on hand).

If you look at cash burn forecasts for all the major carriers and how long they can keep the lights on, It looks like this:
(pretty much calculated by looking at cash / cash burn. This includes debt payments)

Delta: 6.2 months
United: 5.7 months
AA: 4.8 months

It's just a matter of weeks difference between the big three. This doesn't include CARES act cash, so factor that in. Also consider PP&E. AA has the distinct advantage there, where in a game of outliving your competitors and taking over their marketshare when things recover they can use their assets as collateral for more loans. Whoever makes it out the other side in the strongest position will dominate.


All this to say that it's complicated, and running around only looking at debt is way too simplistic a view. OP is still a tool

And they will have to leverage all of it.

The OP has been spamming the entire board with posts like this all morning

Again, they’ll only be forced to do it three weeks before Delta or United. And when they do, they have more assets to leverage.

On another note, had anyone heard what’s happening with xjt? Last I heard them and Republic were the only ones over the $100 million mark to not get money yet. I know Republic’s board sent out a proposal to their shareholders to renegotiate the terms of their bankruptcy. But, I have yet to hear anything on xjt.

especially since he didn’t even know how to spell the disease that is causing all of his dire predictions.

Whats CoRvid19?

Yes hysteria isn't helping.

But reality as I see it: There is no way the big three will avoid furloughs. 15-20% best case, and it could get much uglier if bookings don't start rolling in by late summer. We'll see it coming... bookings will tell the story, pax don't book holiday season travel in Nov.

As somebody said, it's definitely likely that one or more majors airlines will file BK, almost assured some will merge. It's possible but less likely one or more will liquidate... less likely because the fed cannot let the big four fail, so if they save one or more of those, they'd kind of have to at least try to save the others.

FIRE !!!!!


FIRE !!!!






Run for your lives!!!!!!!

I'll agree with all that..

I'll throw in a purchase of a legacy/major by a venture capitalist group buying one of the big three with funding secured from Asia. Especially if share prices continue to erode. Airline and assets at bargain prices, just need deep pockets to float the business till demand builds.

That would require some creativity and waivers to get around the foriegn-ownership restrictions... the fed may not be in the mood for that, especially if the buyer is China. They wouldn't even cut a break for a Brit...

True.. i worked for a company bought by a Chicago based venture capitalist group.. the money all came from Australia and Singapore, but the VC was a usa based company. Slid right through the fed.. this was not an airline though.

Most US industrial sectors do not have foriegn ownership limits. North Korea could own a canned tomato soup factory in Kansas City lock, stock, and barrel. Airlines are limited to 25% foreign ownership (as Sir Richard famously learned).

AA debt balance is higher, not more than others combined, but they're servicing its low interest easier. United has lower overall debt, but is closer to some notes or principle due. AA is still a couple of years away from major principle payments being due. United is issueing new stock to cover some of its principle coming due.

Kinda of a race right now United is not in as deep, but being called sooner.

You better have money saved up because furloughs are going to be atleast 60%. This industry is done, it won't be the same. We'll be lucky to see airplanes fly by 2030. Hyperloops are coming. Time to go back to cleaning toilets.

what retirements? Pilot shortage was over 2 years ago. No one is retiring once the faa raises the age up to 80. This bill is in court now about to be passed.

Bobrovsky
 

lol get out here bro

You have officially jumped the shark.

edited your post to be more realistic.

APC sucks sometimes for people like you precisely.