hindsight2020

I'm confused. Are you saying SWA will be somehow understaffed in Oct? I'm not trying to be purposely obtuse, I'm sincerely following up and asking ya if SWA is a good airline to be a min runner via having people readily pick up the stuff you want to give away.

Bahamasflyer

Smart smart.

On that note, it'll be interesting to see that (once the pax carriers are hiring again) if guys who have 30% or so under them at the big 3, (by the mid to late 2020's), make a lateral to UPS/Fedex simply for the job security.

I absolutely WOULD.

I'd rather be the plug at UPS or Fedex (or even Kalitta for that matter) at this moment, then have 1/3rd under me at one of the big 4 pax.

Complete hypothetical of course, but If I'm hired by a legacy in 2025, and in 2028, I get an offer from Fedex or UPS, you can bet the farm I'm jumping ship, even if I have 30-40% under me and have to commute on top of it, vs live in base at legacy.

Let's face it......cargo is largely immune from practically every black swan event that has hit pax carriers hard. They are far from invincible of course, but the heavy odds are that they nicely weather this storm, just like they did 9/11 and 2008, minus the few hundred (I think) that UPS furloughed out of spite.

rickair7777

Easy to taxi, T/O, and land. Drones have been doing it for years. Any 15 year-old can build a model airplane that can do that do.

Providing the required redundancy for equivalent safety at an economic cost, not so easy.

Designing and certifying AI capable of reacting to the unexpected: they don't even know where to start. The driverless car industry is at an all stop, with no path forward. The tech doesn't mess up often, but every time it does it's millions, (likely hundreds of millions punitive) liability directly to the mfg, with no installed human scapegoat/liability buffer. For airplanes, change the "M" to a "B".

Nothing to see here.

rickair7777

Cargo is definitely subject to economic cycles. They enjoyed some downturn mitigation lately due to increased online retail, and COVID only amplified that. But in the long-haul they are not immune to the economy.

I used to think they had near-monopoly on their niche, because the costs and barriers to entry for setting up a global overnight delivery system are so high. But it turns out any tech trillionaire can setup a competing system using highly-whipsawed third-tier labor.

TFAYD

Interesting article on Fedex and disintermediation by big tech money in general.https://seekingalpha.com/article/431...K6Vsu7bGu-QMT8

hav3atps

Weathered a few bumps in my flying career since starting in 1988. I may had missed it prior if someone already posted but add to the list for the new guys, have another complete unrelated skill in your back pocket than just driving airplanes. I was chastised for suggesting this claiming no one had time to train to be an attorney and other worldly careers on top of building a flying career. But that wasn't the point. Take some classes in electronics even learn how to solder , grab some books on IT networking and challenge some certs, ect. Something to fall back on when these times happen which they will again. Well worth the extra investment... Never had a passion for troubleshooting electronics equipment for the manufacturing industry but have been doing it on and off since 1978. So glad to have it now. Find your "other" skill you're good at. Best..

rickair7777

I've about concluded that this career is best as an adjunct to another career/profession. Make enough money first, or at least in parallel, to your aviation career. If you don't have to worry about homelessness you can then play the long game which can pay off handsomely. Eventually.

Military works well for that, since you can still do guard/reserve after you switch careers. Or just retire from AD so you have the income and bennies for life.

Trying to do pure civilian track with no other professional skills or income stream is a crap-shoot to avoid serious career hiccups. 3-7 airlines seems to be typical for the civilians I know.

Blackhawk

What are you talking about? Kitty Hawk, Evergreen, Emery, Gemini, World (flew both pax and cargo)... some I've forgotten, many other smaller ones such as Ram Air not to mention the many 135 operations that failed.
Historically, recessions hit cargo first and harder, then a few months later passenger reservations would start to drop.

at6d

Right now with the way things are I could give away my entire month fairly quickly. Picking up or trading on the other hand is a different story.

Pre-Covid I’d say SWA had some of the best schedule flexibility in the big four. Now...all bets are off, and each month has new challenges (but there is an increase in flying).

The company wants as many out as possible. We are over staffed pre-covid by 1500 is what most say. The question will soon become will we still need furloughs in October? Understaffing...won’t be anytime soon.

Joebob21

I thought they screened for obvious mental illness when you apply for your medical...lol