Lost decade 2.0?
 

As someone who hasn’t been in the industry for a downturn, I don’t have much to compare this to. Are we looking at another lost decade here? I know there were a lot of factors that contributed to it last time, but if what I hear is right, this drop in passengers was quicker, deeper, and slower to recover than 9-11

The scale of this is unprecedented. Nobody knows. It’s going to be bad, but how bad and bad how, nobody knows

yes, the 3700% sudden drop off in passenger traffic was unprecedented. If the big three all come back as smaller airlines and the habits of passenger travel change Permanently then yes we are all screwed.

For comparison sake does anyone know what the passenger numbers were for Jan 2002 compared to Jan 2001? 4 months after 9/11 I’m curious how the compare to 4 months after COVID shutdown started.

Dont have the numbers, but this is much worse.

Reasons like this is why you go to the carrier you go to a carrier you wouldn’t mind being stuck at instead of the one who has the signing bonus or quick upgrade.

IATA, ALPA, every Big-3 CEO calls this "much worse" than 9-11. Most of the same folks do not see us "back to Pre-COVID levels" for 3+ years.

just reporting what I have read

First of all, welcome to the suck. We’re glad to have you.

U.S. passenger traffic will recover faster than international. IATA’s 5 year prediction to return to 2019 numbers globally is probably reasonable. Remember the lost decade was exacerbated by age 65. Provided they leave the retirement age alone and the global Ponzi scheme falsely marketed as capitalism doesn’t collapse this should be a lost half decade.

Five years is a given for any significant hiring at the big three, beyond that no one knows.

The economic damage caused by the pandemic is somewhat unusual in that it seems to be disproportionately affecting lower- and middle-income families, especially those working in the service and hospitality sector. Higher-income people (and those that can afford to travel) seem to be less affected. At least for now. This may significantly influence how fast recreational travel comes back. If I had to guess, I'd say that leisure travel will be back to somewhat normal levels in two years.

I have been working as a airline pilot since 2001. The decade from about 2002 to about 2011 was an extremely rough time for airline employees. Statistically, the airline industry as a whole lost nearly 25% of its workforce during this decade. Not just pilots, but rampers, mechanics, flight attendants, and customer service agents. Improved automation may have contributed to some of this decline, but the majority of the staffing reductions were due to outside economic forces.

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic...change-335.pngQuarterly GDP growth, 1950 to present.