chrisreedrules

No. It isn’t as if any other carrier(s) can handle additional capacity at the moment. Certainly not to the tune of an entire airline’s lift.

There are training pipeline capacity restrictions.

There is still the issue of LCAs leaving faster than they can be replaced at many regionals.

An airline folding will not stabilize anything. The only thing that will stabilize the regional industry is an absorption of the flying through narrowbodies (ala United) or through securing their regional feed with seniority numbers/defined career paths.

ZeroTT

Oh I don’t see any chance for airframes to survive a collapse. (Other than going to a major)

When carriers go under that lift isn’t coming back. I just mean will the blip of applicants let the other regionals get their mouths above the water for a few months

CFIsoonToBeFO

ExpressJet & Compass both folded last year as well as TransStates. That is 3 Regionals. Tell me again hey there is a pilot shortage when all those pilots were/are available? Another one folding won’t solve the problem.

When one folds, not all of those pilots go to another regional. When one folds, the bad press discourages students and CFI’s who then leave the industry and go work elsewhere, never even finishing flight training. A few do go on the ULCC & Corporate and a few to the Majors.

The only way to stop the bleeding is either increase the retirement age to 70 and/or lower the 1500TT. Lowering the 1500TT will deplete all your flight instructors, so you will be on this path again in 1.5 - 2 years. Increasing the retirement age will make those very junior leave to go corporate or leave the industry as a whole.

The only true option is for the airlines to give CJO’s and pay for the flight training (or time building to get to 1500TT) or flat out go back to 250TT & 100ME

flightlessbirds

No. Just No. There will always be applicants at the big six. If there aren't enough then wages/compensation (or eventually AI) will become attractive enough to solve the problem.

And for the love of god ... it isn't the 1500 hour rule ... its the ATP rule ... and it shouldn't be going anywhere for the sake of the traveling public or the airline pilot profession.

Consider that the 'bleeding' is helping us all. The profession is in demand and I fail to see how our profession's members should be a part of diluting that leverage. What's happening now will drive up compensation and cut the less profitable fat from airline networks. And if it kills off the FFD contractor as we've known it ... well isn't that the best thing that has happened to this profession in a very long time?!?

JohnnyBekkestad

As someone who is currently a regional CA, the BEST thing that happened to us was the 1500 rule, the only reason our salary is somewhat sustainable is because of this and i would hate for the day they manage to lower it. I was going to Eagle in 2011 and could not afford to leave my IT job to take a regional job with stay at home wife and kid on the way. That pushed my whole career by a few year. But i am glad that 1500 rule. And if they do end up increasing the mandatory retirement age, all they are doing is pushing the problem a couple of years down the line. And i am not sure the FAA is willing to play that game again, they did give the airlines a few years to fix the problem, but all took advantage of this and waited to the 11th hour.

flightlessbirds

Yes +1000

filler

KirillTheThrill

Question, what airline are you working as an HR Representative for?

CFIsoonToBeFO

Obviously you have not went thru many years at the airlines yet, nor a bankrutpcy yet. Every Major Airline has filed bankruptcy, and some more than once, and they will cut/kill your contract to shreds during the process. So either lower the mins, bring on more pilots, problem solved for awhile........or raise prices to where customers decide to drive vs fly all while you have to cancel flights due to no pilots (again making the customer choose to drive and not fly even more, UA and DL have cut service to 18 cities which now some of those cities don't even have air service anymore), the airlines loose revenue, airlines then decide to increasing wages to astronomical rates (which hey, pay raises are good), then they fill the seniorty list, then file bankruptcy like they always do and cut your wages to less than they are now.........The Airline Industry is a pendulum, it has happend before and will happen again.....Or just have Congress/FAA raise retirment age to 70 or 75 as long as you keep your 1st class medical. Enjoy being on reserve an extra 10 years.....without that widebody upgrade to CPT (costing you thousands or millions towards retirement)......The fact remains there are less and less students going to school to become a pilot due to the training cost....have the airlines bare some of these cost, that would benefit everyone....the company would secure a pilot before other airlines get ahold of him/her, and more students could afford to attend pilot school. Otherwise today's kids/students (parents) are not interested in paying 100k plus to go work a job where any major hiccup causes a bankruptcy/furloughs/etc.....Think of it, go to school for a 4-yr degree to get the rATP of 1000 elgibilty, then you graduate with 300 hrs TT, now you have to go work (or rent a plane) for another 700 hours....so 5 years of your life, to go work for a Regional another 5 years before going to a Major where you need to be at least on year 2 pay scale, to make decent pay......Now tell me who wants to go 12 years of their life making hardly any money...........They can be a welder/plumber/electrician with less debt and more income over that same 12 year period....It wouldn't be till the 15-20 year timeframe before they see a pay difference......Then it's bankruptcy time, now back to making **** wages......Tell me again why my child should be a pilot? Even if you reduce the mins to rATP at 750, that only cuts 1 year off the timeframe......so with all that being said, the student population is dwindling........with that being said, your current cfi's aren't logging 100+ hours anymore, your foreign students are still not allowed into the country to train....so the timeframe for a cfi to fly a 172 in the pattern for 1500 hours, has gone from 1.5 years to about 3-4 years......so the cfi's are leaving the profession......do you want them to leave and come to your airline as a low time f/o, or just leave in general.....when there are no new hires, there are no upgrages, there is years long of reserve lines.......trust me I've seen it...I been flying since 1996......it is a pendulum.....when they raised the retirement age from 60 to 65, that killed a lot of upgrades, costing f/o's thousands, costing regional pilots millions in wages.....

ZeroTT

just an aviation nerd, sorry to disappoint

terks43

No, do the math. The country is literally short several thousand pilots over the next 4 years (at the regional level) Skywest could close and that still wouldn’t help.

About the only thing that could help, and in IMHO will happen, is the entire regional industry collapsing.