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Will a carrier folding stabilize things?

Old 12-29-2021, 08:27 AM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by CFIsoonToBeFO View Post
Obviously you have not went thru many years at the airlines yet, nor a bankrutpcy yet. Every Major Airline has filed bankruptcy, and some more than once, and they will cut/kill your contract to shreds during the process. So either lower the mins, bring on more pilots, problem solved for awhile........or raise prices to where customers decide to drive vs fly all while you have to cancel flights due to no pilots (again making the customer choose to drive and not fly even more, UA and DL have cut service to 18 cities which now some of those cities don't even have air service anymore), the airlines loose revenue, airlines then decide to increasing wages to astronomical rates (which hey, pay raises are good), then they fill the seniorty list, then file bankruptcy like they always do and cut your wages to less than they are now.........The Airline Industry is a pendulum, it has happend before and will happen again.....Or just have Congress/FAA raise retirment age to 70 or 75 as long as you keep your 1st class medical. Enjoy being on reserve an extra 10 years.....without that widebody upgrade to CPT (costing you thousands or millions towards retirement)......The fact remains there are less and less students going to school to become a pilot due to the training cost....have the airlines bare some of these cost, that would benefit everyone....the company would secure a pilot before other airlines get ahold of him/her, and more students could afford to attend pilot school. Otherwise today's kids/students (parents) are not interested in paying 100k plus to go work a job where any major hiccup causes a bankruptcy/furloughs/etc.....Think of it, go to school for a 4-yr degree to get the rATP of 1000 elgibilty, then you graduate with 300 hrs TT, now you have to go work (or rent a plane) for another 700 hours....so 5 years of your life, to go work for a Regional another 5 years before going to a Major where you need to be at least on year 2 pay scale, to make decent pay......Now tell me who wants to go 12 years of their life making hardly any money...........They can be a welder/plumber/electrician with less debt and more income over that same 12 year period....It wouldn't be till the 15-20 year timeframe before they see a pay difference......Then it's bankruptcy time, now back to making **** wages......Tell me again why my child should be a pilot? Even if you reduce the mins to rATP at 750, that only cuts 1 year off the timeframe......so with all that being said, the student population is dwindling........with that being said, your current cfi's aren't logging 100+ hours anymore, your foreign students are still not allowed into the country to train....so the timeframe for a cfi to fly a 172 in the pattern for 1500 hours, has gone from 1.5 years to about 3-4 years......so the cfi's are leaving the profession......do you want them to leave and come to your airline as a low time f/o, or just leave in general.....when there are no new hires, there are no upgrages, there is years long of reserve lines.......trust me I've seen it...I been flying since 1996......it is a pendulum.....when they raised the retirement age from 60 to 65, that killed a lot of upgrades, costing f/o's thousands, costing regional pilots millions in wages.....

Dude…paragraphs . My eyes.
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Old 12-29-2021, 01:35 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
In which event that major INSTANTLY becomes less competitive for new hires itself because if that would-be new hire had wanted to fly a regional aircraft at less than 737/320 rates, they could have done that by staying at a regional where they already had established seniority. Not saying that some major utterly dependent upon regional feed might not try it, but I think everybody farming their regional field duties out to Republic and Skywest and having them pay their Captains and LCAs whatever it takes to retain them is a more likely eventual outcome.
I think you may be wildly underselling the benefit of having a seniority number at a major. The rates will obviously be better than they would be at the regionals, and the stress of having to be at a regional wondering if/when you'd make it to a major would be gone.

I don't know that AA flying the 190 really hurt their hiring.
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Old 12-29-2021, 02:03 PM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by Longhornmaniac8 View Post
I think you may be wildly underselling the benefit of having a seniority number at a major. The rates will obviously be better than they would be at the regionals, and the stress of having to be at a regional wondering if/when you'd make it to a major would be gone.

I don't know that AA flying the 190 really hurt their hiring.
I think you are wildly UNDERSELLING the reluctance of the major to give up their future military and other regional hire opportunities by coming in with what would amount to a B-scale on junior equipment. For the separating or retiring fixed wing pilot, or the choicest picks of the non-flow regionals, what would be more advantageous? Hiring on with someone who will start them off at a B-scale wage flying junior equipment where - because of seniority of those already in that equipment - they would stagnate a few years before eventually moving on the the 737/320 aircraft and the money that goes with them, or going directly to a 737/320 at A scale wages?

Cheapest move is still to let Skywest and Republic manage the light stuff at whatever the lowest cost those two can make it happen while the major flies the big stuff. That’s my prediction.

I don’t know if all regionals are going to go under but I’d be willing to bet that Skywest and Republic outlast most of the others. Maybe not Horizon - who may wind up flying E195E2s, and maybe not Mesa who may get seriously into cargo, but most of the rest.
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Old 12-29-2021, 02:38 PM
  #24  
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Easy. You fence a/c over 100k lbs to people who meet traditional hiring mins
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Old 12-29-2021, 04:19 PM
  #25  
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No B scales at majors please….
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Old 12-29-2021, 04:47 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT View Post
Easy. You fence a/c over 100k lbs to people who meet traditional hiring mins
In which case you can’t give people junior to them seniority to fly your resurrected from defunct regional hardware. Otherwise, same problem.

It’s like getting a job offer to be a DEC, knowing that there are a bunch of guys that are eventually going to be leapfrogging over you for schedules, vacations, etc. if you have offers from other majors, you’ll turn it down and go there. And it is those guys - the guys that get the multiple offers - that everybody wants.
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Old 12-29-2021, 06:34 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by CFIsoonToBeFO View Post
Obviously you have not went thru many years at the airlines yet, nor a bankrutpcy yet. Every Major Airline has filed bankruptcy, and some more than once, and they will cut/kill your contract to shreds during the process. So either lower the mins, bring on more pilots, problem solved for awhile........or raise prices to where customers decide to drive vs fly all while you have to cancel flights due to no pilots (again making the customer choose to drive and not fly even more, UA and DL have cut service to 18 cities which now some of those cities don't even have air service anymore), the airlines loose revenue, airlines then decide to increasing wages to astronomical rates (which hey, pay raises are good), then they fill the seniorty list, then file bankruptcy like they always do and cut your wages to less than they are now.........The Airline Industry is a pendulum, it has happend before and will happen again.....Or just have Congress/FAA raise retirment age to 70 or 75 as long as you keep your 1st class medical. Enjoy being on reserve an extra 10 years.....without that widebody upgrade to CPT (costing you thousands or millions towards retirement)......The fact remains there are less and less students going to school to become a pilot due to the training cost....have the airlines bare some of these cost, that would benefit everyone....the company would secure a pilot before other airlines get ahold of him/her, and more students could afford to attend pilot school. Otherwise today's kids/students (parents) are not interested in paying 100k plus to go work a job where any major hiccup causes a bankruptcy/furloughs/etc.....Think of it, go to school for a 4-yr degree to get the rATP of 1000 elgibilty, then you graduate with 300 hrs TT, now you have to go work (or rent a plane) for another 700 hours....so 5 years of your life, to go work for a Regional another 5 years before going to a Major where you need to be at least on year 2 pay scale, to make decent pay......Now tell me who wants to go 12 years of their life making hardly any money...........They can be a welder/plumber/electrician with less debt and more income over that same 12 year period....It wouldn't be till the 15-20 year timeframe before they see a pay difference......Then it's bankruptcy time, now back to making **** wages......Tell me again why my child should be a pilot? Even if you reduce the mins to rATP at 750, that only cuts 1 year off the timeframe......so with all that being said, the student population is dwindling........with that being said, your current cfi's aren't logging 100+ hours anymore, your foreign students are still not allowed into the country to train....so the timeframe for a cfi to fly a 172 in the pattern for 1500 hours, has gone from 1.5 years to about 3-4 years......so the cfi's are leaving the profession......do you want them to leave and come to your airline as a low time f/o, or just leave in general.....when there are no new hires, there are no upgrages, there is years long of reserve lines.......trust me I've seen it...I been flying since 1996......it is a pendulum.....when they raised the retirement age from 60 to 65, that killed a lot of upgrades, costing f/o's thousands, costing regional pilots millions in wages.....
Riddle called. They want their diploma back.
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Old 12-29-2021, 09:19 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
I think you are wildly UNDERSELLING the reluctance of the major to give up their future military and other regional hire opportunities by coming in with what would amount to a B-scale on junior equipment. For the separating or retiring fixed wing pilot, or the choicest picks of the non-flow regionals, what would be more advantageous? Hiring on with someone who will start them off at a B-scale wage flying junior equipment where - because of seniority of those already in that equipment - they would stagnate a few years before eventually moving on the the 737/320 aircraft and the money that goes with them, or going directly to a 737/320 at A scale wages?

Cheapest move is still to let Skywest and Republic manage the light stuff at whatever the lowest cost those two can make it happen while the major flies the big stuff. That’s my prediction.

I don’t know if all regionals are going to go under but I’d be willing to bet that Skywest and Republic outlast most of the others. Maybe not Horizon - who may wind up flying E195E2s, and maybe not Mesa who may get seriously into cargo, but most of the rest.
You might be right that for those with the qualifications, it would make said major less appealing, but catering to a minority of incoming pilots instead of their largest potential source (1500 CFIs) would seem to be a mistake. Not to mention plenty of military guys get 121 hours at the regionals, too. Not every military pilot is immediately qualified to jump straight to mainline. And for that group who will make up a majority of any major's hiring, it's immensely more appealing than a regional.

I'm speaking also under a hypothetical (a reality in the short to medium term, I suspect) where the regionals' operational reliabilities are suffering due to staffing issues. While it sounds great to have the smallest planes at the majors be the current narrowbody fleet, in this hypothetical the majors are going to have to take back some of that flying, for operational integrity reasons, unless they want to contract considerably. I agree that Republic and Skywest are probably the best positioned of the regionals to survive the next few years, but there are already issues limiting the amount of growth they could take on. Republic is on pace to hire well over a thousand pilots in a 12 month period and barely break even with attrition. I don't believe it's feasible to ask those airlines to absorb the majority of the regional flying currently being done, and it's not economical for mainline to operate their existing narrowbody fleets on many routes that are currently operated by 76-seat aircraft. For this and a multitude of other reasons, the E2s and the 220s both provide legitimate options for the mainline carriers to retain the flying to the secondary cities, while YX and OO (and the like) can take over the existing 50-seat flying on 175s and/or 900s as the 50-seaters go away. But either way, I don't see a way around more of the existing regional flying returning in-house to the majors, regardless of whether or not they'd prefer to let the regionals fly it.

Perhaps I'm a little more bullish than you about the medium-term future with respect to mainline hiring. I haven't been able to reconcile a way the regional model as it exists today survives the next 5-10 years with the planned attrition. I predict the first major to read these tea leaves and start bringing that flying back in house, even if at quasi B-scale rates, will ultimately reap the rewards from a more reliable operation. An opportunity to bypass the regional mess and jump straight into a 220 or E2, or even a 175 operated at mainline would be a dream to anyone currently required to cut their teeth at a regional, which, again, is most. For the comparatively few separating with the resume/qualifications to bypass the regionals, you're right, though. It would be a step down from the status quo.
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Old 12-30-2021, 03:07 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT View Post
Easy. You fence a/c over 100k lbs to people who meet traditional hiring mins
it wouldn’t be a B scale. It would be the crj900 rate already published in the DL and UA contracts. (AA idk)

new hires would be restricted to crj/erj fo until they met
xxxx tt
xxxx time in airplanes over 100k lbs
xxxx time in fighters

tweak the numbers however you want. Goal
Is that civilian 1500 types would get a couple years rj before having free reign for what their seniority would hold

military/acmi guys could go straight to whatever
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Old 12-30-2021, 05:18 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT View Post
it wouldn’t be a B scale. It would be the crj900 rate already published in the DL and UA contracts. (AA idk)

new hires would be restricted to crj/erj fo until they met
xxxx tt
xxxx time in airplanes over 100k lbs
xxxx time in fighters

tweak the numbers however you want. Goal
Is that civilian 1500 types would get a couple years rj before having free reign for what their seniority would hold

military/acmi guys could go straight to whatever
If they're forcing some pilots to remain in a plane out of seniority, then that's a de facto B-scale.
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