Will a carrier folding stabilize things?
 

I think multiple carriers will fail in 2022. No use discussing which ones as that just generates animosity.

but i do wonder if a surge of available pilots will help matters.

partially by improving the airframe/experienced pilot ratio

partially by reducing competition for new hires and the resources to train them.

Thoughts?

It’s a 121 queuing issue. There is a dearth of bodies early in the queue and increased outflow due to retirement and new growth at the very top. The dearth of entry-level bodies is the bottleneck. THAT is the limiting factor. You don’t make up for that by decreasing the number of regionals, although that certainly will happen. You must increase the number entering the pipeline which WILL happen, likely just getting them to 121 eligible in time for the next economic downturn.

For those already at a regional, fly your butt off and get out while there is still this much movement from retirements and get senior enough in your career destination to be furlough proof when the cycle inevitably repeats.

Maybe you’re seeing it differently, but at the moment i see a lot more issues retaining captains and LCA’s than recruiting noobs.

Decreasing the number of regionals will not increase the number of captains and LCAs, it will merely increase the number of captains and LCAs flowing from the now-deceased regionals to the majors. Unless you are willing to give these people the same seniority and longevity they had at their previous carrier - which would result in pushing down the seniority of everyone else, why would they want to go to another regional? For that matter, why would they anyway? When a profession lives by seniority, they need to start at the bottom as infrequently as possible. Everybody in the regionals will need to do that once when they get to the majors anyway. No sense doing it twice and certainly not for regional wages.

Seriously, there are whole threads describing the disadvantages of becoming a DEC.

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/p...tive-decs.html

To expect people to do that in this environment is ridiculous. To be a CA at a regional you generally need 1000 hrs of 121 SIC time and that puts most at AT LEAST 2500 hours total time. Such a person is better off going to an ACMI or ULCC - even if their ultimate goal is the Big Six - than stagnating as a junior captain on reserve at a regional as they are passed over by more senior FOs upgrading. Better off economically, and better off career wise. Getting a new type in something heavier than 50 or 76 pax will do you a lot more good career wise than being the low guy regional Captain on reserve for 3-4 years.

The majors are looking to hire something like 1000/month in early 2022. If you suddenly dump 2000 pilots on the market, that cannot be absorbed immediately. Wise regionals will see opportunity and try to pounce. Degree to which it works is open for debate

Very true. At 1000 a month 2000 pilots will satisfy the demand for about TWO WHOLE MONTHS.

Do the math. The LCAs, Captains, and Captain eligible FOs will be getting CJOs before you can get them through IOE.

Seriously, regionals WILL be going out of business, but it isn’t going to alleviate experience problems at the ones that survive a little longer. And a 50 seat type rating right now is damn near a waste of time. They’ll be the first to be parked.

If some number of pilots are distributed over some amount of regionals. Some regionals fail due to shortage of pilots. There are the same number of PAX that want to fly. So, the other regionals hire those pilots and take over those planes. They try to fly those routes. And there still is a shortage of pilots. Repeat spiral downward.

What will happen, besides regionals failing is:

1. 50 seat lift being replaced by 76 seaters. Same number of seats, fewer pilots needed. 76 seat lift being replaced by 737/320. Same number of seats, fewer pilots needed.

2. Abandon small markets where only a few 50 seat planes fly. Expect those PAX to drive to a major airport.

3. Increase number of newbies to go into flying. This takes several years. Not going to solve 2022 or next few years’ shortages. Increased pay, cadet programs with airlines to pay for part of their costs.

4. Bring in some of the 76 seat regionals into the majors. Give the pilots seniority numbers. The 76 seat flights, of course, will pay less than 737/320, just like they pay less than the wide body.

It will likely be a combination of all of these. One thing that will not solve it is waving of one’s hands nor sticking one’s head in the sand. Even another black swan event just defers the inevitable, like we have just seen.

In which event that major INSTANTLY becomes less competitive for new hires itself because if that would-be new hire had wanted to fly a regional aircraft at less than 737/320 rates, they could have done that by staying at a regional where they already had established seniority. Not saying that some major utterly dependent upon regional feed might not try it, but I think everybody farming their regional field duties out to Republic and Skywest and having them pay their Captains and LCAs whatever it takes to retain them is a more likely eventual outcome.

We will see, won’t we?

Both united and delta have fairly attractive crj900 rates already contracted.