Regional collapse
04-03-2022, 05:46 AM
#1
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Regional collapse
With all regionals currently struggling with staffing (even with bonuses and flows) how much longer can this business model survive? Seems to me that within the next couple years many regionals will fail due to getting too expensive to operate and heavy attrition.
04-03-2022, 05:50 AM
#2
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Joined APC: Jan 2022
Posts: 192
Originally Posted by Crjdeuce
With all regionals currently struggling with staffing (even with bonuses and flows) how much longer can this business model survive? Seems to me that within the next couple years many regionals will fail due to getting to expensive to operate and heavy attrition.
Even with this, and the E3's, we should have at least one collapse by the end of the year. I am guessing consolidation is the key going forward at the regional levels.
For the legacy carriers, watch code share agreements replace the regionals. AA is the first to really test this with the agreement with JetBlue. JetBlue is becoming the ULCC regional for AA. As it grows, JetBlue will take over the regional type flying with airbuses and AA mainline will do the mainline flying.
04-03-2022, 06:57 AM
#4
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Posts: 3,090
Originally Posted by WhyIFly
If the regionals didn't sink to the current hiring qualifications that they are showing now, at least one would have collapsed already. People are getting hired that are of absolutely terrible quality and should never be airline pilots in the first place, so that is helping things limp along a bit longer than they really should.
Even with this, and the E3's, we should have at least one collapse by the end of the year. I am guessing consolidation is the key going forward at the regional levels.
For the legacy carriers, watch code share agreements replace the regionals. AA is the first to really test this with the agreement with JetBlue. JetBlue is becoming the ULCC regional for AA. As it grows, JetBlue will take over the regional type flying with airbuses and AA mainline will do the mainline flying.
Even with this, and the E3's, we should have at least one collapse by the end of the year. I am guessing consolidation is the key going forward at the regional levels.
For the legacy carriers, watch code share agreements replace the regionals. AA is the first to really test this with the agreement with JetBlue. JetBlue is becoming the ULCC regional for AA. As it grows, JetBlue will take over the regional type flying with airbuses and AA mainline will do the mainline flying.
Also JetBlue is far from a ULCC.
04-03-2022, 07:14 AM
#5
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,501
Originally Posted by threeighteen
the issue isn’t who the regionals are hiring. They’re still getting lots of applicants, but there is a big issue with retaining people at the regionals.
Also JetBlue is far from a ULCC.
Also JetBlue is far from a ULCC.
You can toss all the newbies in at the bottom that you want, all you do is increase the number of low time FOs that you don’t have CAs enough to fly with. The 1000 121 hr to upgrade has become the new constraint that - unless the economy slows considerably and the majors stop hiring - threatens to collapse the regional model.
04-03-2022, 08:55 AM
#6
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Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,090
Originally Posted by Excargodog
The big issue is retaining CAs and senior FOs. You need someone in the left seat for every hour of SIC time and you need 1000 SIC hours to be upgrade eligible. With so many CAs leaving with less than 1000 hours in the left seat and so many experienced FOs leaving without ever upgrading the regionals are in a death spiral.
You can toss all the newbies in at the bottom that you want, all you do is increase the number of low time FOs that you don’t have CAs enough to fly with. The 1000 121 hr to upgrade has become the new constraint that - unless the economy slows considerably and the majors stop hiring - threatens to collapse the regional model.
You can toss all the newbies in at the bottom that you want, all you do is increase the number of low time FOs that you don’t have CAs enough to fly with. The 1000 121 hr to upgrade has become the new constraint that - unless the economy slows considerably and the majors stop hiring - threatens to collapse the regional model.
04-03-2022, 12:03 PM
#7
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Joined APC: Apr 2019
Position: Yes
Posts: 159
Originally Posted by WhyIFly
If the regionals didn't sink to the current hiring qualifications that they are showing now, at least one would have collapsed already. People are getting hired that are of absolutely terrible quality and should never be airline pilots in the first place, so that is helping things limp along a bit longer than they really should.
Even with this, and the E3's, we should have at least one collapse by the end of the year. I am guessing consolidation is the key going forward at the regional levels.
For the legacy carriers, watch code share agreements replace the regionals. AA is the first to really test this with the agreement with JetBlue. JetBlue is becoming the ULCC regional for AA. As it grows, JetBlue will take over the regional type flying with airbuses and AA mainline will do the mainline flying.
Even with this, and the E3's, we should have at least one collapse by the end of the year. I am guessing consolidation is the key going forward at the regional levels.
For the legacy carriers, watch code share agreements replace the regionals. AA is the first to really test this with the agreement with JetBlue. JetBlue is becoming the ULCC regional for AA. As it grows, JetBlue will take over the regional type flying with airbuses and AA mainline will do the mainline flying.
Jetblue isn't an ULCC, they have better onboard service than AA.
04-03-2022, 04:03 PM
#9
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Posts: 699
Originally Posted by povertyeagle
Jetblue isn't an ULCC, they have better onboard service than AA.
04-03-2022, 04:08 PM
#10
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Posts: 159
Originally Posted by daOldMan
JetBlue is an ULCC. They may have some frilly things as compared to Spirit and Allegiant, but they are still an ULCC. Their model is based on cheap tickets.
Google ancillary revenue and get back to us.
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