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Age 67 saves the regionals. If mainline hiring will slow then pilots will upgrade at the regionals. It’s not a pilot shortage. It’s a ca shortage.
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Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3600160)
Age 67 saves the regionals. If mainline hiring will slow then pilots will upgrade at the regionals. It’s not a pilot shortage. It’s a ca shortage.
It’s like being behind a bunch of cars at a stoplight. It turns green and it seems to take forever before the car in front of you starts to move, and the light will turn red long before you make it to the intersection. Two more years for the hardy souls who want to keep making money despite having $3-4 million in a 401k and their homes and toys already paid for just won’t be enough to get people through that stop light. |
Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3600160)
Age 67 saves the regionals. If mainline hiring will slow then pilots will upgrade at the regionals. It’s not a pilot shortage. It’s a ca shortage.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600268)
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
Piedmont operates 50 seaters and is unlikely to fail with AA subsidizing them and relying on their feed. Although Envoy is slowly parking their E145s and transferring some to Piedmont, so it could happen—when AA is ready. Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks. SkyWest still flies CRJ 200s, not sure for which partners, but they are big enough to survive when no one wants to fly on the 200s anymore. Mandatory upgrades don’t seem to have helped them. It will be interesting to watch what happens. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600268)
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
It’s like being behind a bunch of cars at a stoplight. It turns green and it seems to take forever before the car in front of you starts to move, and the light will turn red long before you make it to the intersection. Two more years for the hardy souls who want to keep making money despite having $3-4 million in a 401k and their homes and toys already paid for just won’t be enough to get people through that stop light. What will they do to keep an FO? How will these companies grow? |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600268)
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
It’s like being behind a bunch of cars at a stoplight. It turns green and it seems to take forever before the car in front of you starts to move, and the light will turn red long before you make it to the intersection. Two more years for the hardy souls who want to keep making money despite having $3-4 million in a 401k and their homes and toys already paid for just won’t be enough to get people through that stop light. |
Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600463)
The 50 seaters are primarily being operated for United—Air Wisconsin, GoJet, and Commutair—and United seems to be willing to subsidize the increased labor costs at least short term. They even bailed out Mesa. Perhaps United is trying to keep them going for a couple more years until they can cover the flying themselves?
Piedmont operates 50 seaters and is unlikely to fail with AA subsidizing them and relying on their feed. Although Envoy is slowly parking their E145s and transferring some to Piedmont, so it could happen—when AA is ready. Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks. SkyWest still flies CRJ 200s, not sure for which partners, but they are big enough to survive when no one wants to fly on the 200s anymore. Mandatory upgrades don’t seem to have helped them. It will be interesting to watch what happens. Airlines measure cost efficiency using a metric called CASM, or cost per available seat mile. This unit cost measurement shows the cost for one seat to fly one mile. When a regional airline flies a 50-seat plane 250 miles, they generate 50 x 250, or 12,500 available seat miles (ASMs). Compare this to a low-cost airline flying a 180-seat plane on the same length route. They would generate 180 x 250, or 45,000 ASMs. Both airlines use two pilots, and while the bigger plane burns more fuel, it does not burn 3.6 times more fuel, the difference in seats. Every time any cost for the regional increases, they spread this over a smaller ASM base and it affects their overall cost structure in a more substantial way than the bigger airlines. That’s why the regionals are always passionate about keeping their costs low, but in today’s inflationary economy this is challenging them. Low-Cost Airlines And Busses Are Both Growing QuicklyThe U.S. low-cost industry, led by airlines like Spirit, JetBlue, Allegiant, and Frontier, are growing at a much faster rate that than the higher-cost “big four” airlines. As these airlines grow, a larger percentage of the population gets access to low fares and more nonstop service. This growth makes the product that the regional airlines offer less desirable, due to its higher cost for consumers and almost mandatory connecting nature of its services. As the LCCs grow, the regionals will shrink.On shorter trips, say 150 miles or less, buses are starting to become a more economic and desirable way to feed a big airline hub. One company, Landline, is already working with several airlines to provide this service. Customers can check-in at their small city, check their bags, and ride on the bus in a comfortable, wi fi equipped cabin. When they arrive at the airline hub, their bags are connected and in some cases they will enter the airport through a gate into a secure concourse. These buses could be changed to a new, electric bus to make this service more sustainable years, if not decades, before electric airplanes could do this. As buses replace shorter trips and LCCs take more small-city service with lower fares and nonstop service, the value of the regional feed shrinks. |
Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600463)
The 50 seaters are primarily being operated for United—Air Wisconsin, GoJet, and Commutair.
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Originally Posted by Brickfire
(Post 3600493)
AW is flying for American
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Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600515)
I remembered AW flopped between United and American, I guess I forgot they ended up with American. It appears American has been reluctant to pay higher costs do to pilot wages judging by Mesa’s termination of their contract with American. Yet American was the first to raise pilot wages at their wholly owned carriers. I understand American relies heavily on their regional fleet. American’s priority is likely to remain their wholly owned carriers and I suspect they would let Air Wisconsin flounder. I think I heard Air Wisconsin has extremely wealthy owners who can handle a loss for awhile.
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That forbes article fails to mention contracts generally go to the lowest bidder, an arguably more exacting reason why regionals have needed to keep costs low.
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Originally Posted by Round Luggage
(Post 3600575)
That forbes article fails to mention contracts generally go to the lowest bidder, an arguably more exacting reason why regionals have needed to keep costs low.
And the arrival of fuel efficient narrow bodies capable of long haul will affect regionals too. With a 737 MAX 7 or an A220 or A320 NEO XR flying “thin” long routes point to point, hubs and regional feed may well be less important. The fact is that regionals exist because the legacies figured they could make money off them. That is less and less the case. |
Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600463)
Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks.
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Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600463)
The 50 seaters are primarily being operated for United—Air Wisconsin, GoJet, and Commutair—and United seems to be willing to subsidize the increased labor costs at least short term. They even bailed out Mesa. Perhaps United is trying to keep them going for a couple more years until they can cover the flying themselves?
Piedmont operates 50 seaters and is unlikely to fail with AA subsidizing them and relying on their feed. Although Envoy is slowly parking their E145s and transferring some to Piedmont, so it could happen—when AA is ready. Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks. SkyWest still flies CRJ 200s, not sure for which partners, but they are big enough to survive when no one wants to fly on the 200s anymore. Mandatory upgrades don’t seem to have helped them. It will be interesting to watch what happens. |
Originally Posted by PilotBases
(Post 3600676)
EDV CRJ200s are done in may I think. Displacement to close the final base is already in process.
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Originally Posted by PilotBases
(Post 3600676)
EDV CRJ200s are done in may I think. Displacement to close the final base is already in process.
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Originally Posted by Green Needles
(Post 3602237)
They will all be parked by June.
What’s not cost effective for Endeavour is highly unlikely to be significantly more cost effective for anyone else. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3602269)
And yet people applying to other regionals - and lifers at those regionals - believe that they can keep flying their CRJ-200s and Emb-145s into the sunset.
What’s not cost effective for Endeavour is highly unlikely to be significantly more cost effective for anyone else. Oil's around $80, 50-seaters are paid off, and ticket prices are sky-high. You *should* be able to make money on the right routes, if you can find anyone to fly the things. If you're a senior lifer at a regional with 50's only, you might be willing to stay and do it. They have to find you an FO though... |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600639)
Money is fungible but economics aren’t.
Plus, short haul routes have other problems. If I have to be at the airport two and a half hours before scheduled takeoff to park and go through security for a scheduled 150 mile trip, I can probably just take a bus and beat the time. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3602323)
I think the issue is staffing, not cost effectiveness.
Oil's around $80, 50-seaters are paid off, and ticket prices are sky-high. You *should* be able to make money on the right routes, if you can find anyone to fly the things. If you're a senior lifer at a regional with 50's only, you might be willing to stay and do it. They have to find you an FO though... |
That article is a joke.
Southwest is losing new hires right and left. Frontier and Spirit are treading water and can’t grow. United and Delta are growing as fast as possible. United is getting 138 new jets this year and much more in 2024. The pool is empty. Regionals will collapse and ULCC cannot grow and will have trouble not shrinking. $150,000 DE captain at Air Wisconsin. If that’s not desperation, I don’t know what is. Maybe by June Envoy will be offering $500,000 for a direct entry captain. |
Originally Posted by gzsg
(Post 3602558)
That article is a joke.
Southwest is losing new hires right and left. Frontier and Spirit are treading water and can’t grow. United and Delta are growing as fast as possible. United is getting 138 new jets this year and much more in 2024. The pool is empty. Regionals will collapse and ULCC cannot grow and will have trouble not shrinking. $150,000 DE captain at Air Wisconsin. If that’s not desperation, I don’t know what is. Maybe by June Envoy will be offering $500,000 for a direct entry captain. |
Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3602601)
There’s plenty of pilots. Just not enough with pic. Over time this bottleneck gets solved. It’s still the ripple from the covid shutdown.
*No, don’t really. Not even a pangolin’s metabolism could survive that, tough as the little buggers are. But you get the point. There are fixed costs to running an airline that don’t cease just because one part (albeit an essential one) is in short supply. Many regionals won’t have the ability to endure a significantly sustained interruption in that supply |
Yep regionals are going to shrink considerably. Right now a CFI can easily go to Breeze, Frontier, Spirit and others and just skip having to fly for the regionals. I don’t even think the flow thru carrot is all that enticing anymore since it still requires a pretty lengthy time commitment. ULCCs will become the new “regional” carriers like in the rest of the world.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3603455)
Not enough with enough 121 hours to upgrade who are WILLING to upgrade at the regional level when they can jump to a major. That may be a temporary issue, but for many regionals it still might be a terminal one. Temporary problems can become permanent ones. Try putting a plastic bag over your head - just for 10 minutes or so - and SS how that works out.*
*No, don’t really. Not even a pangolin’s metabolism could survive that, tough as the little buggers are. But you get the point. There are fixed costs to running an airline that don’t cease just because one part (albeit an essential one) is in short supply. Many regionals won’t have the ability to endure a significantly sustained interruption in that supply |
Originally Posted by bluespoon
(Post 3604043)
Yep regionals are going to shrink considerably. Right now a CFI can easily go to Breeze, Frontier, Spirit and others and just skip having to fly for the regionals. I don’t even think the flow thru carrot is all that enticing anymore since it still requires a pretty lengthy time commitment. ULCCs will become the new “regional” carriers like in the rest of the world.
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Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3602601)
There’s plenty of pilots. Just not enough with pic. Over time this bottleneck gets solved. It’s still the ripple from the covid shutdown.
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
(Post 3604829)
There aren’t plenty of pilots. Maybe 10-12k at regionals. Spirit and Frontier are hiring 1k each, Delta, United, Southwest and AA want to hire 2k each. That’s 10k pilots by the end of the year.
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It makes zero sense for any pilot with 1500 hours to go to a regional.
Straight to Spirit then a legacy. |
Originally Posted by gzsg
(Post 3605258)
It makes zero sense for any pilot with 1500 hours to go to a regional.
Straight to Spirit then a legacy. |
Originally Posted by gzsg
(Post 3605258)
It makes zero sense for any pilot with 1500 hours to go to a regional.
Straight to Spirit then a legacy. |
Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
(Post 3604829)
There aren’t plenty of pilots. Maybe 10-12k at regionals. Spirit and Frontier are hiring 1k each, Delta, United, Southwest and AA want to hire 2k each. That’s 10k pilots by the end of the year.
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3606475)
Worth noting that a lot of the LCC hiring is to replace those they lose out the revolving door to the legacies. So the total numbers needed in a given year are not quite the sum of all the majors' hiring.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3606543)
Very true, but it isn’t necessary for the legacies and LCC/ULCCs to hire away all the pilots from the legacies to destroy the legacy model. If they merely hire away the junior CAs and the FOs with 750-1000 Hours of 121 time, the model collapses quite quickly.
Bringing them in house would solve the staffing problem... no shortage of pilots who will fly RJ's if they have a mainline number & benefits. They could seat lock 1500 hour wet ATP's into the RJ's, and let experienced turbine pilots hire directly into other fleets. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3606781)
Yes, the model is in danger of collapsing, at least the outsourced part.
Bringing them in house would solve the staffing problem... no shortage of pilots who will fly RJ's if they have a mainline number & benefits. They could seat lock 1500 hour wet ATP's into the RJ's, and let experienced turbine pilots hire directly into other fleets. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3606475)
Worth noting that a lot of the LCC hiring is to replace those they lose out the revolving door to the legacies. So the total numbers needed in a given year are not quite the sum of all the majors' hiring.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3606785)
That would take some fancy CBA writing and even then they might cease to be competitive for OTS hires.
1) loa for fences for the captains on the RJ 2) loa for seat lock to xxx turbine for new hires into rj 3) memo to HR to run separate indoc days for people you find worthy of non-rj seats. |
Originally Posted by Brickfire
(Post 3606834)
You need
1) loa for fences for the captains on the RJ 2) loa for seat lock to xxx turbine for new hires into rj 3) memo to HR to run separate indoc days for people you find worthy of non-rj seats. |
Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3606815)
There’s a huge population of 1500 hr pilots on waiting lists. Just need a slight slow down in legacy hiring for it all to ripple down to solve the captain problem. Age 67 could do it. Ramping up recession could do it. Higher fuel prices could do it.
The old paradigm is broken, I don't pretend to know what the new one is and I'm not saying recessions won't happen, but covid and the red army in a ground war in Europe haven't quite triggered one yet. We already *got* higher fuel prices. Also travel is thriving even as other consumer spending sectors slow down a bit. Looks like pent-up demand and new travel habits will get us through this cycke at least. I have as much PTSD from industry cycles as the next Lost Gen, but rationally I think we might be OK on this one at least. Age 67 might allow the system to stabilize long enough for the majors to do what they should have done 15 years ago... establish ab initio pipelines which they can control. I think there are plenty of folks who would love to be airline pilots if they can simply apply, show up, and attend training without worrying about tuition, loans, collateral, and top ramen. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3607177)
The "historical" seven-year recession cycle came due in 2014... they've been saying it's right around the corner, any day now for the last nine years :rolleyes:
The old paradigm is broken, I don't pretend to know what the new one is and I'm not saying recessions won't happen, but covid and the red army in a ground war in Europe haven't quite triggered one yet. We already *got* higher fuel prices. Also travel is thriving even as other consumer spending sectors slow down a bit. Looks like pent-up demand and new travel habits will get us through this cycke at least. I have as much PTSD from industry cycles as the next Lost Gen, but rationally I think we might be OK on this one at least. Age 67 might allow the system to stabilize long enough for the majors to do what they should have done 15 years ago... establish ab initio pipelines which they can control. I think there are plenty of folks who would love to be airline pilots if they can simply apply, show up, and attend training without worrying about tuition, loans, collateral, and top ramen. Also, another thing I and myself have noticed over the years, is that kids don’t really have an interest in aviation as much as previous generations did. They would rather be pretend pilots on Microsoft flight sim and other gaming platforms and don’t value a pilot career as much. |
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