ALPA: Pilot Supply Now Stronger Than Demand
 

Saw an ad online from JetBlue encouraging general aviation pilots with 1,500 TT to apply.

Wonder what regional will be the first to reduce pay rates back towards something normal for a regional?

I support ALPA and the message here that pay is what will keep pilots in seats (and personally I believe seniority numbers is the only thing at the regional level in this hiring environment but besides the point) but, the truth is this number issued is pretty close to the status quo for the last 5 years and even less than some of those years past. Our numbers are skewed by foreign pilots who will return home, as well as those that fly under a commercial certificate personally for insurance benefits, and not to mention those who will fly professionally but under 91 or 135.

This is true. Once the music stops and hiring slows/stops - which it will - and visas are no longer being issued a lot of guys will have to head home again and will thin the numbers at a bunch of regionals and ULCCs.

The first one which needs to take concessions to keep "their" flying.

You'll know the glory days are over when somebody starts up a new regional to come in and undercut the old ones. Seen this movie before :rolleyes:

Hulas will set one up from his retirement home, mark my words.

Who knew you could undercut silver?

Do the retirement ATPs automatically covert back to a CAX?

If so their numbers are going to be inflated with retirees that are not going to work.

No. . The pilot certification level does not change as it has no upper age limit. They simply can’t fly under part 121 but can under 91 & 135 rules.

After however many years of high inflation and energy prices we're gonna end up with, having this happen would cause this to become a career thats right up there with fast food. The new price levels of everyday items are staying. Imagine going back from 100/h to 50/h, we'd be back to the days of pilots qualifying for food stamps.

The article makes it sound as if it's good enough if the number of new pilots each year is equal to the airlines' requirements. Surely that's not even remotely true. Obtaining a certificate is one thing. Being suitable for a job as an airline (or other professional) pilot another.

It amazes me how it took a shortage of pilots to finally bring the pay up to what it is now at regionals. They started raising pay, albeit slowly, around 2014/2015, and gradually stepped it up since then. Then they made the huge leap to the current rates this year alone. I wanted to feel bad for regional management, but I don’t. They created this problem. I have no sympathy because they got themselves into this position with people leaving in droves to go to the majors due to years and years of low pay. This shortage has shown that regionals really did not want to pay pilots what they’re worth. They kept putting off pay hikes for as long as they could, until things got so bad with staffing that they had to slingshot the pay rates up to where they are currently. But even with the current rates it still may be too late for some places. I also don’t believe they will bring the pay back to 50/hour. There’s too much risk in that. The only way that could work is if we hit another hard recession. Then they will feel emboldened to do so, and unfortunately pilots will be forced to ‘take it up the rear again.’ But besides a recession, if the pilot market is still strong in 2024, or heck, even if they do manage to catch up with staffing levels, I can’t see them reducing the rates back to what they were pre-2022. It’s just bad business strategy.

In a nutshell.

Incorrect. They were still demanding and getting concessionary contracts right up through 2015.
in late 2016 they started with QOL improvements like hotels in base, and hotels for commuters, and softening of some of the more harsh treatment.
Bonus pay showed up later around 2017 in most cases.

You can literally pull your CBA and read the LOA's one at a time adding back QOL measures, then bonus programs, and finally actual pay raises.

In general, I agree with the rest of your post.

The pilot shortage was entirely caused by management chipping away at wages, working conditions, benefits & retirement over several decades until new FO's qualified for food stamps and other public assistance programs for several years.
As the total compensation reduced each year, the total time experience level of the available job candidates went lower and lower as well. What originally took around 4500 hours experience with an ATP eventually degraded to - in late 2007 - having an ink wet commercial ticket. Even then, the managements continued demanding concessions right up through 2015.
They were told by the unions that a retirement bubble was less than 5-6 years away and that if they could barely fill seats now, what were they going to do when the majors start sucking up all their pilots. The few union leaders at several regionals that fought with management over their own shortsightedness were targeted and silenced in the same ways management always silenced union leaders they didn't like. The record at our airline was a union guy getting fired 7 times for stupid BS they invented.

Anyway, the shortage was created by management making the job not worth having anymore to the point that they could only attract ink wet commercials. They like to blame the ATP rule, and from 2013 to 2015 that may have played a small role. As new guys hit the start of the change, they had to continue building experience to get the ATP, (which is still less than what it historically took to get the job). Once they hit the ATP minimums, the supply chain was back in normal operation and the ATP rule wasn't a factor in the shortage anymore. The number of new pilots entering training for the profession was the limiting factor; and that was driven down by management themselves.

Make no mistake, all this rubbish about the ATP rule (it's not a 1500 hour rule) causing a shortage, is lies and misdirection. Every CEO of every regional should be fired by their BOD for the inept mismanagement they all participated in. They were told by the union leaders that this would be the result. They didn't care. They still don't. They'll be happy to whipsaw everybody again once the supply exceeds the demand again. You've got less than 4 years for that now, with a recession it will be sooner.

You only get what you negotiate. Kind of hard to get what you’re worth if you vote yes to the first offer. Story of the last 10-20 years at the regionals

Comair held the line. Eagle did for a while too. The problem is that there is always a regional willing to undercut others.

*cough* PSA *cough*

Pay started to flip in 2015 with the Edv Retention bonus. It went up multiple times from 30k/2 years to 80k/4.

If I can recall, the endeavor big retention bonus showed up around 2016 2017

no it was 2015. Hundreds of FOs a month were leaving through 2014 since upgrades were 8 years and PSA was hiring street captains after they backstabbed Eagle for more shiny jets

It was in late 2015. The majority of improvements happening at all regionals started in 2016. Some isolated stuff did start in late 2015 though. Some managements held out later than others. The one thing that was for sure was that EVERY regional pilot group was voting no on every concessionary contract from 2012 to mid 2014 when PSA broke the unofficial consortium wall. It was amazing watching pilots from every regional pilot group everywhere finally stand up and say enough, no more. From Silver, Mesa, Republic, TSA, Compass, everybody voted no. The whole Stop the Whipsaw movement was in full swing, the kitbag stickers were showing up everywhere. It was amazing to see. Even ALPA national was forced to actually do something, which is how the second Executive Administrator position (which they called the Regional Coordinator) came into existence. Moak came to our MEC in closed door and asked what we wanted. We told him better representation at National, and the Regional Coordinator Executive Assistant was born.

You've got about 4 years left on the "shortage": before things smooth out for the pilot supply. Use that time wisely to structure contracts to prevent the next round of whipsaw concessionary negotiating because I guarantee you..... it is coming.

I'd work on scope to include something that protects the existing flying or planes from being transferred to another carrier without union consent or agreement. In other words, remove the ease of the financial incentive aspect of the whipsaw.
If you are a WO I'd be working on a single list with your mainline sibling company.

Above all else, the moment you finish IOE at the regional, you should be instantly applying to every major and legacy. Your number one job once finishing training at the regional, is to get out of the regionals.

If you are close to retirement (10 years or less) with the increased pay and improving working conditions, finishing your career at the regional is absolutely a decent option now. Choose your regional carefully though. The shortage will get a bit worse, and I'd expect 1 or 2 more regionals to fall or get otherwise absorbed. Any WO should be fine, then Republic/Skywest/Mesa are all going to survive along with CommutAir. Shrinking is going to happen. Don't plan your future on what their bases are today, that can and will change fast. The other smaller places are in for a tough ride with lots of shrinking and a few will likely vanish.