Regional FO Applicant glut
 

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...ply-is-stable/

Several regional airlines have noticed a shift in the environment with decreased attrition rates. Mesa Airlines CEO Jonathan Ornstein said, “There was a time when none of us could find first officers. Now I mean, I think we have close to 2,000 applicants for qualified first officers.” CommuteAir CEO Rick Hoefling echoed that statement. “We can hire first officers. I think almost every regional airline right now has a stack of first officers. The problem is building their time at the same time you’re attriting out captains at a pretty high rate in the industry. We went from a pilot shortage to a captain shortage now in the industry. So the pendulum is starting to move.”

assuming that means for someone working on their commercial right now that they will be screwed?

Well this explains a lot.

They will certainly be starting at the backside of the wave. Another wave will certainly come along in a few years, and they should be in a good place for that one.

Screwed? No.
You're looking at it through the wrong lens. The slow times are when you should be investing (training, earning certificates/ratings, etc.) in preparation for when hiring picks back up.

If you are still working on earning your CPL, you have a long way to go before you can be hired. By then things might be back on the upswing.

True that good to catch a positive outlook every now and then. Currently working on my CFI and actually happy to see things stop to breathe. Only catch is I’m 37 behind this massive wave of younger guys/gals.

That 2,000 number is only going to grow. Mesa isn't one of the better regionals. Envoy, Skywest and a few others probably have more applications.
The slow regional FO hiring is nowhere near the flow of people reaching 1,500.

Jonathan Ornstein, the CEO of Mesa Airlines, has been involved in a couple of controversies throughout his career. Here are two areas where he's faced criticism: Early Career: Ornstein dropped out of college and became a stockbroker. He was fired from multiple brokerage firms for ethical violations including unauthorized trading and document falsification [Wikipedia Jonathan G. Ornstein]. Labor Relations: Ornstein has a reputation for being tough on labor unions. He's clashed with pilot unions over pay, benefits, and scheduling. In one instance, a pilot union issued a vote of no confidence in Ornstein [Baltimore Sun Mesa Air's hot-headed CEO]. There's also been some contention surrounding Mesa's business practices. For example, when Mesa launched a subsidiary in Hawaii, some competitors accused them of predatory pricing aimed at driving them out of business [NBC News Mesa Air launches controversy in Hawaii].

If they can hire all the First Officers they want, why are they paying $100/hour and bonuses, instead of picking the new hires willing to fly for $36/hour again?

Regional CEOs earn their salaries by finding the pilots willing to fly for less than mainline, like scam artists and resellers.


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Just like it didn't go from 36-100 overnight, it won't go backwards overnight. But it will eventually more reflect long-term market conditions - whatever that may be. One issue is who goes first? And if you're the only one paying crap, why go there? Because you're desperate to have a flying job - any flying job..? That's how some of the low ballers did it in the past - hire those that were less desirable to higher-paying outfits. Same song and dance as before; rinse and repeat.

Some that have only experienced the milk and honey of the last couple years may have a skewed view of the industry. Barring 67, retirements don't change, however, so I don't think things will regress horribly - maybe more of a plateau. They just won't sky rocket like recently, which was an aberration IMO.

And when Boeing finally gets it act together and starts delivering quality planes, the freight train of hiring will ramp up. All this does is defer the issue with the regionals.

The unions won't let them lower pay, right?

I disagree. Doubling or Tripling anticipated retirements over a year then trying to play catch up started a feedback loop that stripped the regionals of LCA's and captains faster than they could be replaced.

This pause will let them regenerate. I suspect regional LCA and captain will remain a decent job. There are still too many retirements in the coming decade to keep the regionals staffed otherwise.

But Regional FO pay will stagnate or decrease and the union will go along with it ... why? Because some other regional will get the flying if they don't.

Come back and check in a couple of years (when Boeing gets their quality act together and deliveries ramp up). We will see who is right.

Vacancy - I agree. Seems like people are forgetting that many regionals' nice pay for FO's was a temporary and expiring boost. I'd wager more regionals have Republic-esque contracts in the future . Meanwhile the 1500-2000 hour pilot glut is swelling even larger each month, and the justified FOMO is going to fuel the trend of pilots taking less than ideal job circumstances. Stagnation sucks, especially after witnessing the past few years.

From what I can tell flight schools, especially the zero to hero 100k loan type, are packed. DPEs charging $2K for certain rides after a two month wait if you can get a hold of one at all. Seems like there’s an enormous amount of people in the pipeline behind just that hour range.

One major regional doesn’t have a union ;) they will do as they please I’m sure

No. only way pay goes down is if a company reorganizes under bankruptcy or they start another whipsaw airline. Although I think most new regional contracts prohibit separate companies.

They already have at least three whipsaw airlines - Piedmont, Commutair and Air Wisconsin are all on death row absent a new airframe.

They get offered new airframes contingent on a new deal- the union will say yes. The changes would mostly fall on new hires and/or FO's - therefore wouldn't affect voters much - and could be offset by some sort of signing bonus. Another tactic - probably workable as an LOA - is union approval of a training bond or something similar.

Then there's always Skywest.

the old saying, airlines are hiring until they are not! Last year was a crazy year for majors hiring which caused a vacuum behind that. Now, they have hired what they need and have just slowed down/paused for now. 4 years ago it was about covid, today its about hiring a ton and getting caught up, some operators shutting down, and boeing delivering less. This will create a backlog and you better do something to stand out, have your CFII or MEI, join a cadet program etc. The days of getting to 1500 and fogging a mirror are done for awhile, it doesnt mean there wont be jobs out there you will just have to work to find them, network, meet the chiefs etc. It will be interesting to see how the newer generation of pilots handles this. If you are older, consider 135 as maybe your career because you may be stuck at a regional for so long you may never make it to a mojor or be at such low seniority your QOL is bad until you reach 65. 135 doesnt have the 65 required retirement and the larger ones are paying pretty decent right now.

How old you talking?

We'll never see the hiring wave we saw at the Major Airline lever in late 21 through early 23 again. Not in our lifetimes.