Future Attrition
 

Anyone remember seeing the post that displayed the attrition rates for the Lagacy carriers (assuming age 60). I searched but with no luck.

hey man i copied a couple from a post a while back, i'm still looking for united.

American retirements
08: 382
09: 397
10: 358
11: 312
12: 308
13: 385
14: 475
15: 567
16: 620
17: 680
18: 732
19: 731
20: 744
21: 716

Delta

2007 19
2008 61
2009 75
2010 89
2011 133
2012 158
2013 218
2014 273
2015 348
2016 483
2017 571
2018 548
2019 543
2020 470
2021 419
2022 319
2023 308
2024 306
2025 325

those are crazy numbers for American. 7407 spots will open up in less than 15 years. Total between the two is over 13000.

I believe the argument made regarding the pilot shortage is that there are over 10000 apps. on the sideline not willing to go to the regionals but waiting for these spots to open up. Well, that just about covers it. Should be a very interesting future.

So you are saying that there is not a shortage then?

well unless these "sideline guys" are flying C-130's in the ANG, or G5's for Netjets they wont have a shot if they are 135 guys or CFI's competing with regional CA's with 1,000's of hrs in glass aircraft

Here is the link.
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=15353

I hope it makes everyone appreciate just how big of a setback changing age 60 would cause to all pilots in this entire industry.

Here are some slightly better numbers on the other site. (Just don't read any commentary below mine. I can't believe some peoples attitude over at that site.
http://forums.jetcareers.com/general...l-numbers.html

How many guys do you think would actually work until 65 if/when this is all said and done?? I think most of them, when the dollars and cents look OK will get out. But then again... I don't talk to that many people that'd be directly affected.

Some of the older pilots I have talked to say they cannot afford retire and would stick around (or they feel like they cannot afford it)... and they usually mention the fact that their expected pension benefit is now gone...

...Not to mention, how else would they be able to continue to pay off their two (or three or four) ex-wives alimonies? :D

AA jumpseater the other day was not so optimistic with their attrition, as that table above suggests...in fact, she said, it was less than half. Buuuut I don't know where her sources are exactly. Just pointing it out!

Haha Exactly.... it's cheaper to keep her :)

Im betting half will stay on ... even fewer will stay the full 5 years. But thats just me thinking.....

I think it depends on the airline. The guys at delta seem happy and more of them might stay longer. The usair east guys are so miserable and are begging to find a way out while still being able to afford to retire. My guess is as soon as they can afford it theyll be dropping like flies.

Good point killer.... quality of the employer might influence more to stay....... or lack of percieved quality of life might just make that guy leave at 60 or shortly there after rather than endure the pain.....