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Old 12-11-2007, 08:52 AM   #1  
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Question American Eagle Spin OFF will be like Express Jet?

I have been watching these forums for a long time now and finaly have the privilage of posting as a registered member.

So hear goes.

AMR announced in november that it will divesting Eagle and as a result I have seen a lot of talk on this forum about its future. some seem to feel it will be like express jet and expand its service on its own or some feel eagle is going under in four years and all its flying will go to other regionals willing to fly for cheaper. As a new hire for Eagle (Class Date Jan 21 ORD) and an interviewie for Express Jet, tomarrow (Dec 12), I would like to see what people on here realisticaly think will happen to Eagle and its pilot labor force. Is the airline, on its own, bound to expand and therfore higher new pilots thus shortening the upgrade time or will in the grand sceem of things nothing happen. On the flip side, what is going to happen with express jet. I hear nothing but good things from the pilot group and have many freinds there, but will the company be stable enough for the next few years for a new hire to not have to worry about a potential furlough? And will the losses its going through right now, becuase of the start up costs associated with its branded flying, lengthen the upgrade time to captain?

Thank you for responses.
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Old 12-11-2007, 08:58 AM   #2  
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I fly for American. I'm an FO.
Here is my honest answer. I have no clue what's going to happen. Nada, Zero.
AMR continues to amaze me. Every day i've worked here, they'll do something and i'll think "well things can't get any worse or they can't screw things up any worse than this." Yet, the next day something else pops up and you (I) just shake your head in utter disbelief.
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Old 12-11-2007, 10:00 AM   #3  
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The fact of the matter is that nobody has a crystal ball, we can just make educated guesses. I try to rationalize about why/what/when of this:

-AE has a real senior pilot group (expensive labor costs compared to other regionals)

-AE flies outdated aircraft that and inefficient and expensive to operate (Saabs are breaking everyday, ATRs same, 37/44 seat RJs that arent efficient)

It would take a huge amount of cash to continue to run AE at the current state, and an even larger amount of money to buy new, more efficient a/c. The pilot labor costs arent going to drop anytime soon, unless you can take the top 1500 pilots and get them a job somewhere else.

I think AMR will contract several regionals in the next few years to fly portions of the current AE routes. It will be much cheaper for AMR and make money for their shareholders(pilot costs would be cheaper, equip would be larger/better). For AE pilots I expect the overall pilot group to shrink through attrition and the upgrades will remain about the level they are at now (7 yrs). In the end I expect AE to be primarily a DFW and ORD based carrier flying some 50 seaters and a few 70 seat CRJs.

As for Xjet, I think they are having a set of their own problems, but the pilot group is rotating out because CAL hires large numbers of XJet pilots. If I had to chose between the two I would go XJet.
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Old 12-11-2007, 10:07 AM   #4  
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It is interesting that weather is such a critical aspect to aviation. I mean, in aviation you really cant do much of anything with out giving the weather some serious considerations. What I have learned about weather since Ive started flying about a little over a year ago (and now have my private+instrument and almost my comm) and what everyone else here knows... is that weather can not be predicted. We can make a few guesses but the only way to know what the weather is going to be is to wait and see.

It is very interesting that weather predictions and industry predictions are so unpredictable. Sure if there is a high pressure over illinois I can say with some certainty "It will be clear skies tomorrow" but with that same certainty I can say "There will be no terrorist attacks tomorrow."

I am sorry if this has gotten way off topic and didnt answer the OPs post... but I cant help but feel that speculating, while can be useful, has no real impact in the long run. especially when we are talking more than a year.

Those just be my 2 cents...dont spend them all in one place.
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Old 12-11-2007, 10:15 AM   #5  
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Unless you are EXTREMELY dead set on being in ORD...i.e. you have a wife and kid there who don't want to relocate, or a dying father in a hospital near ORD, or something to that effect, why on Earth would you go into a company with a best-case-scenario of a 4-5 year upgrade, when you could go to a company with a worst-case-scenario of a 4-5 year upgrade?

There is a REASON why Eagle hires at 400/50 while XJet needs around twice that to be competitive.
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Old 12-11-2007, 10:38 AM   #6  
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Remember, if AA wants to sell off Eagle, they're going to have to have some pretty good terms to interest any potential investor. No fool would just buy the airline at or near a preimum, without gurantees that AA won't dump them within a couple of years. If you really want to go to AE, this may actually work out to be a really good time. I came to XJT two weeks after the first anouncement on the 69 jets being removed from the CPA. I was concerned, but I'm darn happy I didn't turn back.

Good Luck,

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Old 12-11-2007, 10:42 AM   #7  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicholasblonde View Post

There is a REASON why Eagle hires at 400/50 while XJet needs around twice that to be competitive.
Its pitiful when 800 hours is competitive to get a job in a jet carrying people aroun. in my opinion. But on that same deal, I wouldn't go to eagle. At least express flys for someone other than continental so they have more business to fall back on if/when continental takes more flying away. who knows whats gonna happen with these companies but why would you go somewhere that most likely has trouble in the future.
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Old 12-11-2007, 10:59 AM   #8  
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I don't think you can make an analogy between being a new hire at XJet and a new hire at AE.

XJet has a shorter upgrade, much less expensive labor costs since their captains are newer/lower on the payscale, and a better fleet. In addition as was mentioned before, CAL is still hiring XJet guys, causing movement and keeping labor costs down.

XJet can bid and do branded flying for 10-20%+ less than AE could, due to their vastly different cost structure.

Unless AA gives them darn near exclusive rights to their feeder flying, and starts hiring off their captains, I still don't think it's going to be a good place to start a career.
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Old 12-11-2007, 11:02 AM   #9  
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what I'm saying is, even if AE were released to do branded flying or bid on flying for other carriers, they'll easily be out-competed by everyone else out there unless they can figure out something more productive for their senior captains and FOs to do, like fly bigger airframes with more pax on them.
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Old 12-11-2007, 11:08 AM   #10  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicholasblonde View Post
I don't think you can make an analogy between being a new hire at XJet and a new hire at AE.

XJet has a shorter upgrade, much less expensive labor costs since their captains are newer/lower on the payscale, and a better fleet. In addition as was mentioned before, CAL is still hiring XJet guys, causing movement and keeping labor costs down.

XJet can bid and do branded flying for 10-20%+ less than AE could, due to their vastly different cost structure.

Unless AA gives them darn near exclusive rights to their feeder flying, and starts hiring off their captains, I still don't think it's going to be a good place to start a career.


But 9E is that much better of a place?
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