Baby Boomer Retirement
 

Does anyone have any links discussing the imminent retirement of baby boomer airline pilots? Any thoughts on how this will affect, not only position availability, but also pilot pay. As far as pay goes, I think we can all agree that it is sub par at best. Do you think that increasing retirements will have a positive affect on this?

I certainly do not want to upset anyone that is in this group, but am curious what you think this mass exodus (if it can be considered that) will do for the industry as a whole.

Urban Legend
 

Back when I was a new pilot we all were told of the huge hiring boom due to all the WWII era pilot retirements, never happened. Then we were all bracing for the big boom of all the pilots who were hired at the same ages in the 1960's, and that one didn't materialize either. The latest was that the Veit Nam guys were starting to retire in huge waves starting in the late 1990's, I haven't seen that one either. These guys do retire but the results are hard to determine since most new jobs are being created in the low fare and regional markets. Never has it made a positive effect upon pay. I think that management feels free to lower pay with every new generation of pilots since their expectations are so low.

Stories of pilot hiring booms are meant to sell magazine subscriptions and pilot licenses.

SkyHigh

Stories of pilot hiring booms are meant to sell magazine subscriptions and pilot licenses.



100% correct...

-LA

Most of the Viet Nam baby boomer pilots will reach 60 between 2002 through 2010. It was claimed that there will be a need for 27,000 new pilots within these years. I was tought in school a couple semesters ago that 60% of all major airline pilots will reach 60 before 2010. With that being said, there should be about 23,000 jobs just at majors coming available within the next four years. I dont think that the majors have hardly hired anyone within the last few years, this number seems really high,however,that is what one of my text book claims. If this is true, there is going to be a huge hiring spree. I will try to find a link to support my info that I just stated; when I find it ill post it on here. I know the info was in one of my text books, ill try to find it elsewhere as well. Maybe it will be like Skyhigh said, maybe we really wont see it because of the regionals and low-cost carriers. I might be stating the obvious here but, I think that when all of the baby-boomers are out of the cockpit, this is when we are going to see drastic concessions with the airline industry.

Dittidano

Text Books
 

dittidano,

Lets add "text books" to the list of reasons to cry of a pilot hiring boom. Besides what makes you think that even a large lay off of pilots would bring management to the negotiating table? There are currently more unemployed or underemployed airline pilots out there than there are working major airline pilots left. Half of all those pilots could retire next month and they just might make it to the bottom of the furlough list. If I were you I would take out your calculator and add up the numbers of pilots at each of the major airlines and see exactly how many there are. I think the number is around 55-65 thousand current and working major airline pilots (DAL UAL AA USA AS SWA). The US military alone is training over 11,000 new pilots every year and the civilian market is producing over 25,000 new commercial pilots every year. If the average airline pilot has a 30 year career then we would have an average of 2200 retirements every year for a potential of 36,000 trained and educated new professional pilots, that puts the odds at 16 to 1. Besides, the majors are shrinking while the LCC's are growing. I don't think there will be much of a blip on the radar for even the most optimistic view on retirements.

Skyhigh

We are experiencing quite a bulge of retirements at Alaska right now. We will lose about 70 to age 60 retirement and more for medical. We are hiring quite a few for the moment and will continue to for the rest of the year.

Real Answer
 

Well, I do not have much of an opinion about what was said above.

One thing I have though is a FACT that you asked for. (According to Airline Pilot Central).
51% of Continental pilots are retiring in the next 10 years.

Fact
 

ryane946,

Fact "One thing I have though is a FACT that you asked for. (According to Airline Pilot Central).
51% of Continental pilots are retiring in the next 10 years."

True, but that still only equates to an average of 230 pilots per year, that hardly pencils out to be a boom. Given the current state of the industry they might decide to shrink that could amount to nothing. In any case half of those future new hires will be consumed by the sons and daughters of current line pilots. It really doesnt amount to a whole lot.

Each airline has been promising huge retirements but most of that has been absorbed by a reduction in force. UAL DAL NWA and a few others have already seen a majority of its baby boomers retire early.

Even during the supposed boom of the late 1990's most hopefuls still didn't get a coveted job at the majors. I wouldn't put too much hope on hiring boom legends.


SkyHigh