Upcoming Recession
01-24-2008, 08:14 AM
#1
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Posts: 152
Upcoming Recession
With this upcomming recession, have any of you guys heard, think, or are concerned that this might put a freeze on hiring for this year? Or do you think it's going to have a marginal effect on the industry because of the current 'shortage'?
01-24-2008, 08:38 AM
#2
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Joined APC: Aug 2007
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Posts: 16
Originally Posted by jelloy683
With this upcomming recession, have any of you guys heard, think, or are concerned that this might put a freeze on hiring for this year? Or do you think it's going to have a marginal effect on the industry because of the current 'shortage'?
First of all, we ought not begin a discussion on false pretenses. As reported in today's Wall Street Journal, economists expect "a period of unusually weak growth, rather than outright recession," with growth this year at 1.7% compared to 2007's GDP growth of 2.2%. It's still early enough to keep the economy chugging along....
01-24-2008, 08:50 AM
#3
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Originally Posted by jelloy683
With this upcomming recession, have any of you guys heard, think, or are concerned that this might put a freeze on hiring for this year? Or do you think it's going to have a marginal effect on the industry because of the current 'shortage'?
I have Faith in out Country and our Economy slow growth dont mean Recession it just means slow growth... Now Go out and Spend we gotta keep this puppy running
01-24-2008, 10:44 AM
#5
Property of Scheduling
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Position: Bus driver
Posts: 2,524
Remember the definition of recession back from econ 101. There are numerous "baselines" used to define such an economic event. A "correction" in the equity (stock) market is 10%, a "recession" is 20% (which is a moving and debatable number in the current equity markets) and/or a LOSS in GDP in 2 or more consecutive quarters. We have a SLOWED economy, not a recession by any fundamental market tickers.
This being said volativity (the .vix index) is higher than ever. We are facing an interesting worldwide economy situation. A slowing and deflating of the housing market impacted the credit market, which impacted the equity markets of the US, which is the basis of most international markets, which directly effects the value of the dollar, which impacts the cost of all imported goods. In addition to the following flow or money we have a complex variable of commodity prices and inflationary woes. Oil prices have risen, commodity prices have risen- causing the consumer inflationary cost index to rise at a higher rate than both the average overall cost of inflation and the rise in median income. While I am no economist there are many variables effecting all of us in not only our industry but our standing as americans in the global marketplace.
Currently Cash is king. The Fed is acting (via reductions in the discount rate to banks) to bring the liquidity levels up in american households, the house/white house has convened to try to put a liquid infusion (of $140B) into the US economy. All of these actions are in hopes of reinforcing the median american consumer to bring up the global economy from the basis of the fundamentals. Right now is a great time to have cash to get into the markets- the equity markets, housing markets, and global markets are at a discount with the ability to get cash and financing cheap IF you are qualified and not in debt up to your eyeballs. Moral of the story is ALWAYS HAVE CASH ON HAND and NO Debt in depreciating assets!
This being said volativity (the .vix index) is higher than ever. We are facing an interesting worldwide economy situation. A slowing and deflating of the housing market impacted the credit market, which impacted the equity markets of the US, which is the basis of most international markets, which directly effects the value of the dollar, which impacts the cost of all imported goods. In addition to the following flow or money we have a complex variable of commodity prices and inflationary woes. Oil prices have risen, commodity prices have risen- causing the consumer inflationary cost index to rise at a higher rate than both the average overall cost of inflation and the rise in median income. While I am no economist there are many variables effecting all of us in not only our industry but our standing as americans in the global marketplace.
Currently Cash is king. The Fed is acting (via reductions in the discount rate to banks) to bring the liquidity levels up in american households, the house/white house has convened to try to put a liquid infusion (of $140B) into the US economy. All of these actions are in hopes of reinforcing the median american consumer to bring up the global economy from the basis of the fundamentals. Right now is a great time to have cash to get into the markets- the equity markets, housing markets, and global markets are at a discount with the ability to get cash and financing cheap IF you are qualified and not in debt up to your eyeballs. Moral of the story is ALWAYS HAVE CASH ON HAND and NO Debt in depreciating assets!
01-24-2008, 10:56 AM
#6
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: Upright and Locked
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Riddleeagle... I read your post before you changed it... and agree 100%.
With another rate cut, mortgage rates will eventually come down, which is good for the consumer. Of course just one of the flip sides, so will interest rates on bank accounts, allowing me to "earn" less on my own money. My Roth and 401k are tanking thanks to the stock market. I think it's borderline naive to think that a few hundred bucks in the form of a "rebate" will save our economy.
The fact of the matter is, we as a nation are in debt.. and I don't mean just personal debt. And saying "go out and spend" isn't going to help. Most people in America don't have the money to spend, or what they do spend will just end up being put on a credit card, increasing the level of debt.
With another rate cut, mortgage rates will eventually come down, which is good for the consumer. Of course just one of the flip sides, so will interest rates on bank accounts, allowing me to "earn" less on my own money. My Roth and 401k are tanking thanks to the stock market. I think it's borderline naive to think that a few hundred bucks in the form of a "rebate" will save our economy.
The fact of the matter is, we as a nation are in debt.. and I don't mean just personal debt. And saying "go out and spend" isn't going to help. Most people in America don't have the money to spend, or what they do spend will just end up being put on a credit card, increasing the level of debt.
01-24-2008, 11:57 AM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: Cessna 152 Captain
Posts: 695
Originally Posted by TristarJS30
Riddleeagle... I read your post before you changed it... and agree 100%.
With another rate cut, mortgage rates will eventually come down, which is good for the consumer. Of course just one of the flip sides, so will interest rates on bank accounts, allowing me to "earn" less on my own money. My Roth and 401k are tanking thanks to the stock market. I think it's borderline naive to think that a few hundred bucks in the form of a "rebate" will save our economy.
The fact of the matter is, we as a nation are in debt.. and I don't mean just personal debt. And saying "go out and spend" isn't going to help. Most people in America don't have the money to spend, or what they do spend will just end up being put on a credit card, increasing the level of debt.
With another rate cut, mortgage rates will eventually come down, which is good for the consumer. Of course just one of the flip sides, so will interest rates on bank accounts, allowing me to "earn" less on my own money. My Roth and 401k are tanking thanks to the stock market. I think it's borderline naive to think that a few hundred bucks in the form of a "rebate" will save our economy.
The fact of the matter is, we as a nation are in debt.. and I don't mean just personal debt. And saying "go out and spend" isn't going to help. Most people in America don't have the money to spend, or what they do spend will just end up being put on a credit card, increasing the level of debt.
01-24-2008, 12:09 PM
#9
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: CFI, MEI
Posts: 105
it won't work...government needs to let the market correct itself. The market is a far more powerful animal than the government can control and all of these pathetic attempts to make themselves look like they care are pathetic.
01-24-2008, 12:27 PM
#10
Furlough line holder
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: CRJ2, ATR, CRJ7, E145, 737
Posts: 1,845
it's beyond just our economy, worldwide it's slumping
they react to us...we react to them..they react to use reacting to them...they react to us reacting to them reacting to us
oh no, i've gone cross-eyed.
Honestly though...the term recession has morphed from what it used to be back when the textbooks from Econ 101 were made. Wars are supposed to stimulate the economy, history has proven that. But that only works when the money we spend isn't already in debt.
Our economy is plain and simply, run by banks. Who desire nothing more than to make money. Every dollar that is produced, is sold to the US for distribution at a debt. This country will never, ever be out of debt with our current Federal Reserve system, which is RUN by banks!
That's for another discussion..do the research, it's kinda disturbing if you ask me.
Just my .02
they react to us...we react to them..they react to use reacting to them...they react to us reacting to them reacting to us
oh no, i've gone cross-eyed.
Honestly though...the term recession has morphed from what it used to be back when the textbooks from Econ 101 were made. Wars are supposed to stimulate the economy, history has proven that. But that only works when the money we spend isn't already in debt.
Our economy is plain and simply, run by banks. Who desire nothing more than to make money. Every dollar that is produced, is sold to the US for distribution at a debt. This country will never, ever be out of debt with our current Federal Reserve system, which is RUN by banks!
That's for another discussion..do the research, it's kinda disturbing if you ask me.
Just my .02
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