Which way is the future?
 

(OK this may seem like a lame repetitive thread, but I DO have a valid question here.)

With the way the market is heading, are regional airlines still a viable path to the majors, or are they fast becoming a dead end? With the way the market is heading will the military be the only way to ever land a job with a major airline? Will regionals become a dead-end job with no hope of advancement? Or will the possibility to work up from regional to major remain open?

Actually, that's the complete opposite of how events have unfolded in the last decade or two. Used to be, you almost had to be former military to land a job with the "desirable" carriers. Nowadays, they hire from many sources (although a few still do have unpublished preference for former military aviators). The stagnation you see in the careers of regional drivers is caused by a lack of hiring at the major level, not a redirection in their hiring preferences.

I certainly do not know what the future holds marketwise, but why would the Majors hire only military? I am former military and still didn't end up at a major. (1500TT) Anyway, why shouldn't getting 4-5000TT with 2-3000 PIC flying 121 for a regional, not make one competitive with the retired Military folks?

I posted this in the "Envy (LMAO, btw) Skywest" thread but I think it applies here:
Basically, I think you are going to see a continued blurring of the line between major and regional which started with the majors turned their noses up at the RJs in the early 90s. Capacity control is the buzz word in the industry now - putting just the right number of seats in the right market at the right time. That new ARJ-100 (or whatever its called that they're building in China) is a 100-120 seat "RJ", as is the CRJ-1000, or at least thats how they are marketing those aircraft. I don't think its outside the realm of possibilities that one day you could see airplanes of that size up to 737/Airbii flown by "regional" airlines who would then codeshare with the Big Boys in the domestic market to feed the international markets. It would be a cheap and convenient way around the few scope clauses that still exist. And there will always be pilots willing to fly a bigger airplane for less than they should.

PS
There is more than one way to make a good living flying people for money. Anyone that thinks bigger airplane = better pay should check out some of the pay scales at the fractionals.

PPS
Hows the college search going?

I personally think that consolidation/mergers throughout the industry can be a good thing because it will reduce competition and allow for higher fares. However, I doubt the fares will be raised until Southwest decided to raise them. Obviously, mergers aren't good for the pilot/flight attendant groups. I am anxious to see what the industry will be like in five years. I do think that the majors will get their pay back.

Yeah, Southwest's fault... not the fact that you fly an 86 seat airplane for $19.02/hr or whatever stunning rate you guys are getting right now making it that much easier for majors to charge $79 one way.

I think the regionals will continue to be a stepping stone to the majors. The real question is will you want to work for a major when it comes time for the leap. Starting back in '01 most of the pilots @ the majors took some concessionary pay-cuts in the form of give-backs to upper management. Pay and quality of live since then has not returned to its previous levels. It's 2008. I think the wages for airline pilots have fundamentally changed and I don't see them returning to where they were previously. So, the wage gap that exists today between regional pilots and the big leagues will continue to narrow. Remember, adjusted for inflation, airline pilots 20 years ago made 2x as much as they do today.

If you want to carry people and earn a good wage w/ good benefits and quality of life, the trend seems to be to work for a fractional. This, I think, is due to some basic changes that are occurring in our country. It is gradually turning into the haves and the have-nots. The haves seem to be moving in droves towards the fractionals, use NetJets as an example. These folks will shell out 2 million dollars/year for 50 hours of flight time w/out even flinching. As a pilot, the fact that they have money essentially insulates your job. You're less vulnerable to spikes in oil prices and fluctuations in the economy because the clients you serve have lots of money. The have-nots stick to the airlines...it's all they can afford. This is where the airlines are stuck w/ a real difficult dilemma. They need to raise the fares to compensate for rising jet fuel prices, yet if they do this, many of their pax will choose not to fly. This will result in a reduction in capacity, fleet down-sizing, and furloughs for pilots (the junior ones, of course). Consolidation is a short-term solution to a long term problem: Rising costs. In the end, consolidation will directly benefit the CEO, board of directors, shareholders, and hedge funds associated w/ the merger. The senior pilots will fare OK. If you're on the lower end of the totem pole, it's a tenuous situation at best. Consolidation supposedly reduces overlap/redundancy in route structure...if that's the case, look at fleet reduction/base closures as a result and subsequent furloughs for junior pilots. Sticking to freight might be your best option if you want to fly a large jet, however, those jobs are a dime a dozen.

I agree w/ what freezingflyboy had to say. Previous distinctions are being blurred. Get on w/ a regional airline, but w/ that said, really look to get on w/ a quality regional airline. Do your research and find out which ones treat their people well...w/ dignity and respect. Get on w/ that carrier, let things shake out a bit, then ask yourself what you want to do. Only time will tell.

The Duke

I don't know why, but this post really, really got under my skin - way more than most anti-everything RJ posts do - it actually really had me scratching my head...

Your posts (yes, plural) are in poor taste, my friend. Straighten up.

This post, unfourtunately, is true. I'm as much the problem as you are.

We have all put ourselves in this position(involuntarily and voluntarily), now the question remains:

Can we get ourselves out?

Yeah, my fault. I guess if SkyWest paid us more then Southwest would raise ticket fares? Great post...

Are all of the other regionals excluded with crappy pay excluded?

No major will raise their fares due to the lost cost carriers. That is a fact. I don't know how you can argue that.