The honest future
 

I know a lot of threads have talked about doom and gloom in the future for the regionals i.e. fuel/oil prices, reserve/upgrade times and hiring. What is everyone's opinion on the near and present future? Good? Gloomy? or more than likely stayin' the same?????

Upgrades will likely slow, and RJs (especially 50 seaters) will likely start to be replaced with larger aircraft or parked altogether.

The bottom line is NOBODY knows what the "honest future" will hold...

The future will hold uncertainty.

Anxiety regarding hiring is forecast, furloughs are on the horizon, as is hiring, long upgrades will happen, short upgrades will happen, Aircraft will be bought, sold and parked.

Bottom line - nobody knows.

Seniority is everything, but it's also the golden handcuffs. My advice? Get out while you still can! :D

Who knows. Some regionals will be able to hold out longer than others if it comes to parking a/c, furloughing. IF that happens. People always say the 50 seaters will be parked and larger a/c will be obtained. Though that's a possiblity, it won't happen overnight. Remember, rates need to be negotiated for these larger a/c. That takes time. Pilots simply won't accept any less than we are currently making, hopefully, and management will use high fuel costs to low ball contracts. It'll be a standoff, who knows who will win. I say more pay, or close the doors.

is it soley the cost of the barrel that is making everything haywire???

No. It's the value of the U.S. dollar

The honest future is known to only those "honest" men in suits that sell oil.

On that note, the Goonies is on TV.

No. It's management greed. Even when oil was at a reasonable price and the dollar was worth a little more the airline industry was still "haywire". This is nothing new. If this were truly a customer service industry and not a "please the shareholder" industry it would be better for labor, management and most importantly the customer. Unfortunately CEO's are more than willing to make changes that will incur short term profits to please shareholders and get a fat 7 digit bonus at the end of the quarter. Short solutions only flush this industry further down the toilet in the long run. CEO's don't seem to take pride in their own product... they know when the airline goes TU they will get a huge severance package and move on to a different industry to screw.

the cycle is continuous and ever accelerating.


Read the book "Hard Landing"

http://www.amazon.com/Hard-Landing-C.../dp/0812928350

Slide
 

Aviation as a profession has been on a long slide since deregulation. Advances in automation and the multi crew license will insure that in the future pay and working conditions will continue to degrade. We are our own worst enemy. Pilots seem to keep coming no matter how low the wages get. Companies will just hire younger and lower experienced pilots for less pay.

SkyHigh

I could even see them hiring foreigners when the wage gets too low for even the bottom of the barrel guys (MESA and TSA types) to accept.

I hope for the best though. I love my job (when the door is closed).

nobody knows REALLY what the future holds....any guess past next week for any company is just that.... a guess.

No one knows
 

No one knows what the real estate market will do tomorrow but when you examine a graph over time it is easy to see the overall trend.

As with aviation next week will be a surprise. Ten years into the future is easier to guess.

SkyHigh

SKYHIGH

I cant say i really agree with that. If you look at carriers in other countries, the training that the pilots get fro day 1 is geared toward airlines. They dont do it like we do here with the time building. They hirfe pilot with 0 hours and put them in an Airbus etc. Their pay is OK. So i dont agree that multi crew rating ets will ruin the industry. Its a quick fix for lack of pilots. When the mins go up again, that rating will be useless

Buffalo, ask yourself "why is there a lack of pilots". It's because the career and pay are nothing compared to what they used to be. When I got my commercial DAL pilots still made $300+/hr, and the regionals had 50 seaters max. It's nothing like it was.

I also think that cheap labor, increase in regional flying at lower wages etc was a solution that major airline management thought would work. But they are now realizing that you get what you pay for. RJs arent profitable, even the 170's and that we need less flights and use bigger airplanes. Its happening already. In Buffalo, 3 months ago it was mostly RJs, now is all main,ine overnighting in Buffalo, 757's A320 etc. The RJ was the immedaite fix to 911 but it did not cure the disease! IMO

I think we still do at least 2 CRJ200's there a night. I do so many freakin BUF overnights... be there Tuesday and Thursday night this week! Not a bad overnight for us... one of my favorites. Great place to be in the summer!


PM me if you wanna grab a beer.

yeah there still are some RJ but USair 757 United 737 etc. Beer is great. I MAY TAKE YOU UP ON IT.

Are you serious?
 

"Bottom of the barrel guys (Mesa and TSA types)?" Who are you to judge others for choosing an airline that does not "meet your standards"! You are assuming that because someone chooses Mesa, TSA or Pinnacle that they are less experienced and qualified than others. There have been plenty of pilots at these carriers that haved moved on to Majors, Legacy carriers and Fractionals. It is my assumption that many go to places like these to get the quick upgrade so they are able to move on and progress their careers. And if you're wondering, I don't work for above. QOL is pretty good where I am, but sometimes I wonder if QOL while sitting right seat for 3+ years is worth it. I don't plan to stay here forever...do you?

I never said Pinnacle... are they bottom of the barrel? Interesting.I have quite a few friends from college at TSA and although I don't agree with where they went to work I am by no means better than them. Some have a reason they need to be there, but let's face it most of us (not all) entry level pilots are young and single and could go wherever we wanted. Anyway, My point is that the less money someone is willing to work for the less money we will all make. My company formerly had bases in the midwest, but now we do not and I get paid much less money than I would have because a second rate company that doesn't pay their pilots crap undercut us. I suppose those pay cuts which we had to take to stay afloat helped inch us along in the race to the bottom... Glad we are not winning that race.

How does going to a company like MESA, TSA, and apparently Pinnacle (among others I'm sure) help anyone but yourself. I suppose that in the end everyone is only looking out for #1 anyway.

Same old story... That is part of (dis)honest future.
This has been argued so many times before. There is nothing new from either side to be said.

Didn't mean to sound arrogant... I by no means think i am better than anyone else. I however do think I did my part (through research) to get a job that wasn't screwing over other entry level pilots... although it could be argued I am screwing the guys at the majors... the argument could go on forever.


And no... I don't plan on being at AWAC forever, but i do no if there is another down turn in hiring I will have made the right decision. By the way... don't get caught up on upgrade times. They can (and do) change overnight.

Multi-Crew
 

High training costs are the driving force behind the MCL. In 3 years we could be paying $10 a gallon for avgas. It is highly possible that in the near future it could cost 140K for a commercial MEL license. Eventually private training programs will drop off.

Rather than to raise wages airlines will constitute their own European style cadet programs and hire high school kids as indentured servants. As with the age 65 rule, the MCL is just another way for companies to continue the supply of cheap pilots.

Skyhigh

Many would argue that you, by not going through the military, took a job that was screwing over way more pilots than the 2000 pilots that have gone to these bottom of the barrel airlines have.

Get off your high horse and realize that most of the guys at majors laugh at most of the bickering that goes on at the regional level. It's a REGIONAL. ALL of your work rules suck, regardless of whether you have a duty rig or not. Somebody took a job, and that's brining down the industry? Give me a break. Entry level aviation jobs have been crappy for almost the entire tenure of the industry, it's just that there aren't 100 different little carriers that fly around Metroliners and J31s anymore, there are 25 that fly slightly larger aircraft. If I may, I'd like to offer you a tip: the fact that there's so much in fighting at the regional level is half of the problem in aviation right now. Who cares that you as an FO are getting $30k as opposed to $20k? You're still accepting a job that works you almost as hard as a real job for what essentially works out to be around $10-$15 an hour (if you spread it out over the hours that you actually work. I can't remember who said it, but the majors are the goal here, people. The quote was "if he gets to the majors before you, he wins, you lose. Period."

Too bad most foreign Airlines are doing alot better, so it will be hard to get people to come over to fly here. That been said Mesa, Trans States, PSA, Pinnacle, Great Lakes, CommutAir, Colgan, America Eagle, Comair, ASA and Lynx will all go out of business. Leaving SkyWest, ExpressJet and AWAC for that matter, to be the WORLD GREATEST and you guys will change the economy and reform the aviation industry. Ha ha ha Good Luck

Haha... for some reason I don't have much faith in that.

I agree with you to an extent, but what business isn't about "please the shareholder?" Even if you work for Southwest and have a central mission of pleasing employees/custormers, the mission is to make money.

"Hard Landing" should be required reading for all in this industry.

Best post I've read in a LONG time.

the 64K question - when ticket prices go up because costs rise, will the aircraft get larger with less frequency or smaller with the same or lower freq.
It still costs less to send 45 people on an RJ than on an MD80 or the like.

I think the trend will be to fly the fuel efficient newer 100 to 110 seat jets at fewer frequencies, if the oil price keeps going up, which I think it will.
This means 50 seat RJs will be gradually phased out. Even 76 seat RJs including CRJ9s and E175s will be phased out eventually to be replaced with 110 or larger mainline jets. Unless the scope clause disappears(very unlikely) these jets will be flown by majors.

I think you are right about the "distant" future but there are not enough of these to put into the system now. the baby bus (318) would work well and I think it is the only one that could be produced with current production line openings

You left out the E195s and Bombardier C-Series.

what I meant was that the 195 orders have that line filled and of course the C- series still awaits a launch customer. in other words it will be a few years till it all goes down.

I agree. That's why the near trend will be to go 76 seat RJs like CRJ9s and E175s. The 110 seat jet replacing DC9s and MD88s is still a couple of years away, I think, although it could happen sooner. I do agree A318 is probably a good option as well.

The best place to be in the near future is the fractionals. The worst fractional is better than any of the regionals; without all the bickering.

The MD-88 is a 142 seat a/c. Yes NWA's DC-9's (100 seats) can be replaced by the E-190/5's or the C-series but the 88's have too many seats. In order to properly replace them you need a 737 or an A320. That is unless you plan on reducing capacity.

But I understand your point.

Overall, I'm optimistic. The history of flying is haphazard. Airlines come and go, pilots move with the flow. The short term, based on history, people will still fly and many jobs will be around and because of many factors, most upgrade times are dramatically slowing again. The companies that charge enough to stay around will survive and grow. Others will fail. I wish you all the best in your aviation endeavors. I have been tremendously fortunate.

We are generally a happy family in the cockpit itself. Never met a group anywhere I did not like or enjoy being around. The challenge is that we are all on different points of the escalator trying to make a go of it as a career. Some like Skyhigh, hit some tough points and left. A wise move for him and his family. Others start anywhere to get a foot in the door and all hope to move along quickly to a better gig.
This is the every present challenge. We, like family, nitpick and raise cane with others who don't fit our ideal for the industry.
It is dissappointing that unions can't get along for a common purpose. ALPA can't get along with ALPA, (the most recent DAL/NWA issue). Independents can't get along with ALPA. (AMR and TWA). It is standard in the industry, maybe some day, regardlesss of airline or union, we would mentor the industry more effectively at the flight schools, universities and in the market.
If the professional unions and many of us individually, took a proactive aproach cooperatively, then we wouldn't rip the throats out of some person who wanders on to a forum like this and belittle them after they made some big decisions. We need to approach the industry as a profession that leads folks into the business. We need to influence those who desire to join to have a more uniform and informed understanding of the business. We need to make the entry conditions better. At present, we let industry management drive the market and entry conditions. A clear example is no union should ever allow pay for training in any contract, take the decisions away from a new person. Our collective response to date: Let each company management decide and WE deride anyone who does it as lowering the bar for the rest of us. Well, who was around to influence that decision? Yep, the old guys like me. What did I do to prevent Jonathan Ornstein from tossing that disaster at my fellow aviators? Nothing. Easy excuses, not my company, etc. Everyone flying professionally is responsible for mentoring the folks coming into the business. If you had a team of Legacy, Major, National,LCC, Cargo, Regional, Fractional, Charter, Part 135, CFI's & Corporate pilot leaders taking charge of our profession we would find the bar going back up, even in a difficult business world. I often disagree with Skyhigh's approach, but I respect him immensely for calling the limits and trying to inform others of the challenges and costs. Easy to blame others, but I'm part of the problem. Time to get myself and others to change our collective, professional approach....

Gloom and doom, if energy costs and recessionary pressures intersect during the summer Travel season.

Just seems like this industry is getting worse and worse. Just when it can't get any worse, it does. I don't like to sound this way, but it's just common sense. If past performance is a reflection of what is to come with the airlines, then I'm certainly not expecting any improvements. I just can't will myself to leave because I enjoy flying airplanes still, although that infatuation is starting to fade year by year. Maybe this is something all airline pilots go through, I don't know. Times are definitely tough right now for those of us @ the airlines. I keep hoping things will get better, but that is just so inconsistent with what I've experienced in this industry thus far...I have a high tolerance for the B.S. that comes w/ this job, that's another reason I've lasted as long as I have.

well said salty..........

B.s.
 

Well written...

I think that over time the fun side of aviation begins to subside while the shortcomings become more pronounced. Unless there is a pot of gold at the end of the regional rainbow it seem to me to be difficult to remain satisfied at work and to be able to stick it out.

Skyhigh

On the line, the general consensus and thoughts re. the industry are not represented on this board from what I see. People still like the job abd understand that the times are tough right now!