What to expect at AE in the monthes to come?
 

I'm just starting sims at AE and we're obviously all thinking the same thing...what's gonna happen tomorrow? And the day after that? And after that? The fervor of furloughs and lay offs has somewhat subsided as we all have adjusted to the news but we are all on edge.

What I am beginning to wonder is if furloughs are less likely than we originally thought? (Hopeful thinking) From what I have heard, attrition was exactly 50 pilots a month. Of course that was when other carriers were hiring actively. I have also heard that attrition is rising now after the recent news breaks. I am hoping that attrition and our FO shortage, which was 200-250 according to mgmt about 3 weeks ago, will hopefully keep us all on board. Of course if they park 40 RJ's it is going to be a really really interesting day.

It should be interesting to see if there is to be furloughs, how many and when will it start.

Well the airline staffs something like 10 pilots per aircraft. With all the Saabs being retired and 35-40 jets being parked, that is around 650 pilot spots. Taking nothing else in to consideration, that is about the maximum that you could see furloughed. It won't be close to that number, but potentially in the several hundreds. Even with the original FO shortage that still leads to 400-450 pilots to many. I had been at Eagle a year and left in May. Best of luck to all that are still there.

I think the numbers for attrition have dropped significantly. We were losing about 50-60/month in the peaks of hiring the past few years, but now all other carriers have stopped hiring, regionals and majors both. As said before 650 would probably be the absolute most furloughs. I have heard we are anywhere from 100-300 FOs short. Some smaller amounts of attrition will continue, so I personally expect 100-150 furloughs. If I were in training now I would just continue studying and focusing on that. Just remember nothing has been officially announced yet, and with AMR you cant be sure until it something actually happens.

If American furloughs again will there be back flow into Eagle... that could add to the numbers significantly.

No, Letter 3 has expired.

Letter 3 still has it's own issues that are going on here at Eagle. With displacements likely many wonder if the flowbacks will be displaced in seniority order with the rest of the pilots or if the get to keep their "super seniority". Time will tell how it all plays out with the displacements and furloughs.

there won't be flowbacks. Letter 3 expired. And Eagle definitely does not staff 10 crews per aircraft.

The actual number is 4.5 crews per aircraft. A total of nine pilots per aircraft....

he said ,,"somthing like 10 pilots per aircraft" not 10 crews.

Unfortunately nobody really knows what is going to happen at this moment. I spoke with a Union rep today that said they will be meeting with management in the next few weeks to see what can be done to save jobs and protect us from furlough...he did say however that furlough is a real possibility. So its hard to know exactly what is going to happen to us newer hires.

I would suggest you just keep your nose to the grindstone and keep going with training. Get through it, get your SIC certificate, get through your IOE and see what happens.

If we are furloughed we can at least get unemployment pay for a few months while we look for new jobs.

It will look much better to a future employer to see that you stuck it out until the bitter end rather than quitting now. I know its a less than ideal situation - and believe me I'm right there with you in all this - but nothing is going to predict the future for us. Just keep going until the official word comes out.

probably a pay raise.

No, the posting said 10 CREWS per aircraft. He probably meant to say pilots, but he said crews. Since there are obviously new folks here trying to figure out if they are on the AMR hit list, I wanted to make sure they knew the real number.

OT - How do you delete posts? I notice the post I originally responded to is now gone... how do you delete on this BBS. I poked around a little and haven't found it yet.

Keep in mind too that furloughs are very expensive. The displacement bill for the Saab parkings and ATR shifts is going to be pretty big. Since AMR is classic for pinching a dime out of a penny, they are probibly looking very closely at the numbers and will decide ultimately what is in their best interest. The union will try to convince management of our cause but the only sure bet is that mgmt will have the numbers to back any decision they make.

In this light, no matter what your opinions of skywest may be, it is aparent that they are probibly the best run regional airline right now. Ask any Chicago FO and they will tell you that the ORD base is very overstaffed. I have friends on reserve who have flown less than 10 hours in a month. That company with their insightful managment has chosen to stay fat and wait for things to pick up. Sure, they can pick up flying from other contracts; something eagle's golden handcuffs at AA prevent, but they have still decided that paying a few first-year FOs is cheaper than furloughing/displacing them.

Best of luck to everyone, its going to be a stressful time for all.

the ORD base is overstaffed? on the EMB or CRJ or both? i thought eagle was in dire need of people in chicago

He is talking about Skywest not Eagle.

Well, it won't be much of a pay cut as far as I can see!!!

Its a good thing I already have backup plans worked out...

BOS has 87 hard lines for July, and 123 FO's in bid status. Sounds like a month to bid reserve and stay home....

bahhhh...i get done with training here in two weeks and i am hoping to get as much flying in before any sort of furloughs...what do you think my monthly flying hours might end up being with overstaffing like that???

just out of curiousity how much space from the bottom of the list would a january 07 hire date have? it would be interesting to know if i would be as close to the chopping block there as i am if the sh!t starts hitting the fan here at RAH.

why did you get an offer at AE on Jan 2007 and chose RAH instead?

Only the old and grumpy are going to be furloughed. Thats straight from the training department.

Isn't that the majority of the airline then? :D

among other things i got sick of the two leg 8 hour commute

if they did that the upgrade would drop to about 2 years!!!

Jan 07 DOH has about 700 people below them right now.

I would imagine youll fly 50-60 hrs/month on reserve. We will always be short staffed, even if they downsize. The days of sitting at home all day without being called on reserve are far gone!

Copied and pasted from the first line of the second posting in this thread.

"Well the airline staffs something like 10 pilots per aircraft." :rolleyes:

thats good to hear...i may sound like one of those young ambitious types...however i just don't want to sit around all day and fly once or twice a week...if i'm stuck by the phone i'd rather go out and fly...

Then it was editted or deleted. The original post I responded to said Crews. How many time do I have to say it.

It would be great if it worked that way and not on seniority!

It would cut down the training department though!!!

gotta love AE's seniority list if you haven't been there for 20 years, you've been there for 6 monthes...

Have you bothered to actually look at the seniority list?
Your statement is completely wrong.