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-   -   Gambling on XJT and their future (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/28534-gambling-xjt-their-future.html)

ToiletDuck 09-16-2008 09:37 PM


Originally Posted by Bond (Post 462772)
CAL needs the feed from us, just as much as we need CAL, don't be naive to think that just because they have the upper hand, they hold all the cards.

That's what you guys thought before they pulled the 69 planes. I can think of three jet companies that are willing and completely able to replace those aircraft. No one said they have to be able to replace them tomorrow but the feed can be pulled and replaced rather quickly.

On a side note CHQ wasn't the lowest bidder when it came to CAL. SKYW and PNCL both had lower bids.

Nevets 09-16-2008 09:59 PM


Originally Posted by dojetdriver (Post 462705)
I wonder, if it was XJT that set the price. You know, when the 69 airplanes were pulled and XJT submitted a cost structure below CHQ's.

I'm curious if that was what the CPA's cost was based on, not the SKW thing.

The CAL letter to XJT, which was delivered after a CPA with SKW had been reached, said that absent entering into a new CPA with savings of the magnitude negotiated with SkyWest, CAL would wind down all flying by 2012. Skywest wouldn't have hub restrictions, a most favored nation clause, or change of control clause. That is basically what XJT got for meeting the terms of the SKW agreement. It basically was priced into the agreement on the table.


We understand that SkyWest, Inc. (SkyWest”) has delivered to you an offer to acquire ExpressJet Holdings, Inc. (ExpressJet”). In
connection with your consideration of such offer, we wanted to inform you of our understanding with SkyWest regarding a new
capacity purchase agreement (CPA”) and our intentions regarding our existing contractual relationship.

First, we confirm that we have negotiated a new CPA with SkyWest, which would become effective if SkyWest is successful in
acquiring ExpressJet (which, in turn, is subject to due diligence, among other things), and that we would consent to the change of
control that would occur upon such an acquisition.

Second, absent our entering into a new CPA with savings of the magnitude we have negotiated with SkyWest, we currently expect to
deliver to ExpressJet on June 28, 2008, a notice to withdraw 51 of the existing 205 Covered Aircraft from the current CPA, beginning
in December 2009. Further, although we have the right to terminate the existing CPA at any time, we currently anticipate we will not
extend the term of the current CPA (which we must do, if at all, by December 31, 2008), and thus the current CPA would simply
expire in accordance with its terms beginning on December 31, 2010, with the expectation that all aircraft would be removed from the
current CPA by the end of 2012.

We hope this information is helpful to you.

Sincerely,

Jeffrey J. Misner
Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer
Continental Airlines, Inc.

Originally Posted by ExperimentalAB (Post 462730)
I'm sure they both set the downward pressure...

Who? CAL, CHQ, or SKW? Its pretty obvious this is not what XJT wanted but since they had a gun pointed to their head by CAL with SKW providing the bullet, they felt they had no choice but to accept rather than to call CAL's bluff again.

Bond 09-17-2008 12:35 PM


Originally Posted by ToiletDuck (Post 462976)
That's what you guys thought before they pulled the 69 planes. I can think of three jet companies that are willing and completely able to replace those aircraft. No one said they have to be able to replace them tomorrow but the feed can be pulled and replaced rather quickly.

On a side note CHQ wasn't the lowest bidder when it came to CAL. SKYW and PNCL both had lower bids.

Yeah, you mean like those awesome CRJ's that were brought in to replace the XR's costing CAL an average of 30K a month in denied boardings per station. Yeah that worked out great! Oh and where would they get the aircraft from? Remember, scope clause nothing over 50 seats; and as per our current CPA we keep the aircraft if released no if's or but's.

I would think you would have gotten over it by now. So we didn't hire you, big deal! You ended up at RAH, why all the ill will towards the company?

Nevets 09-17-2008 05:35 PM

ExpressJet Reports August 2008 Performance

HOUSTON, Sept 17, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- ExpressJet Holdings (NYSE: XJT) today announced traffic and capacity results for August 2008 for its ExpressJet Airlines subsidiary. The results include statistics for both contract and branded operations. The contract operation consists of flying for Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines under capacity purchase agreements and ExpressJet's charter (corporate aviation) service. The branded operation includes flying under the ExpressJet name and pro-rate flying for Delta Air Lines.

Contract Flying

During the month, ExpressJet revenue passenger miles (RPM) under contract flying totaled 753 million, and available seat miles (ASM) flown were 961 million. ExpressJet's August load factor was 78.4%. The company flew 63,831 block hours and operated 33,393 departures during the month.

Branded Flying

During the month, ExpressJet branded RPMs totaled 168 million on 211 million ASMs, resulting in an August load factor of 79.6%. The company flew 12,328 block hours and operated 6,669 departures during the month. The average stage length in the branded operation was 636 miles.

ExpressJet Airlines - Press Room - Press Release

MatchPoint 09-18-2008 07:16 AM


Originally Posted by Nevets (Post 463626)
Branded Flying

During the month, ExpressJet branded RPMs totaled 168 million on 211 million ASMs, resulting in an August load factor of 79.6%. The company flew 12,328 block hours and operated 6,669 departures during the month. The average stage length in the branded operation was 636 miles.

ExpressJet Airlines - Press Room - Press Release

I'm not surprised, they had a great product.

Pitts S2B 09-18-2008 09:46 AM


Originally Posted by JetJock16 (Post 422625)
Therefore I felt very comfortable when I bought (for a conservative investor) a rather large amount of their stock yesterday at $.361 per share (to date this investment is the 2nd largest stock investment I made....

$0.26 / share - 30% down so far... In this market, how far are you willing to let it go? Airlines are a zero sum game. Timing is everything.

"How do you make a small fortune in aviation? Start with a big one!"

No risk, no reward though... Good luck!

Pitts S2B 09-18-2008 09:48 AM


Originally Posted by Bond (Post 463349)
Yeah, you mean like those awesome CRJ's that were brought in to replace the XR's costing CAL an average of 30K a month in denied boardings per station.

Just curious. Can you quote your source?

Bond 09-18-2008 11:08 AM


Originally Posted by Pitts S2B (Post 464082)
Just curious. Can you quote your source?

Absolutely, in addition to the many station managers, try the annual station report next time your out at the outstation. MSP comes to mind, COS, CLT, GSP, the list goes on. I believe the documents are also listed in COAIR, if you can't find it there the station managers are more than happy to show you.

flyingkangaroo 09-18-2008 11:53 AM


Originally Posted by Pitts S2B (Post 464080)
$0.26 / share - 30% down so far... In this market, how far are you willing to let it go? Airlines are a zero sum game. Timing is everything.

"How do you make a small fortune in aviation? Start with a big one!"

No risk, no reward though... Good luck!


I don't think he was playing it short term, If I remember corectly I think he was talking about selling before the announcement of the reverse split impacted the stock and then buying back in, if that's the case he might have a gain on his investment. Let's see what happens with the RS and 3rd Quarter profits due out in november. Watch for less then anticpated loss. If that happens he might be up a descent ammount. The market is down as a whole, it's at a 3 year low. If you look at the the XJT BETA it's something like 2.5 so it should move 2.5 times whichever side the market goes. It's an extremely volatile stock.

If the RS does go through it will leave 50 million shares outstanding. Looking at SKYW they have over twice the ammount of shares outstanding (110 million) and are sitting at about $20. let's say xjt returns to a level of profitability only a 1/2 of what skyw is, You would expect to see the stock price of xjt at $20+. That is still a huge return on what would be 3.60.

JetJock16 09-18-2008 12:12 PM


Originally Posted by Pitts S2B (Post 464080)
$0.26 / share - 30% down so far... In this market, how far are you willing to let it go? Airlines are a zero sum game. Timing is everything.

"How do you make a small fortune in aviation? Start with a big one!"

No risk, no reward though... Good luck!

I started playing with XJT stock back in July and am now completely out. Initially I bought 10,000 shares at $.36 and sold at around $.62. Then I purchased LCC stock in the low $4’s and sold in the mid $9’s. Again I purchased into XJT stock but lost around $800 when the stock fell down to $.32. After my loss I moved it all into AAI at $2.15 and sold at $3.09. After all this I decided to gamble one more time XJT when they dipped down to $.17 and purchased 30,000 shares which I sold at $.28. I just bought 3000 shares of AAI at $2.43 at I sold at $2.82. Total I’m up over $18K in the matter of 2 months. I’ll probably play with XJT again after the split and when I do I will only use my profits……………………………..between you and me I think I’m doing pretty well when it comes to XJT and other airline stocks.

A 12 year old can tell you that Airline stock are extremely volatile and are not good long time investments, but they are easy to day trade. My initially $3600 plus a small amount of my profit has been used to purchase more shares of Sherwin stock bringing my total to over 1500 hares that pay’s an average of $1.4 in dividend every year (which I roll back into more Sherwin stock). At one time I held of 3000 shares and my goal is to continue to increase those shares seeing that Sherwin is one of the most stable companies in America and they are a SOLID long term investment.

I will buy back in after the split and I do expect XJT stock to turn a nice profit for me over the next 12 months when I do. I believe in XJT's pilots and I feel that they have a very scrappy Mgmnt group that will return the company to profitability..................unlike MAG.


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