Speculations on when interviews will start
 

I'm interested on some educated thoughts on when Skywest will start interviewing again, Aug, Sept, Jan ? Are there very many folks still swimming if so is it just for the crj or both ac?

I'd say late fall...could be later though

Like everyone else in the NWA/DAL family of feed, I'll be they're waiting until after the merger to see what that world is going to look like. Similar to us at 9E, holding off on new hire classes until we see what Daddy Delta's next move is.

Midwest Airlines....

Good point. Late next year?

The analysts at PNC told my father they believe the bear market for US stocks will last into 2010. If you believe the market bottoms ahead of the actual economy, then hiring may not begin until 2010. Ughhh.

I don't see any serious hiring before the first of the year. That's being optomistic.

I would consider that very optimistic. I seemed to me the latest "Board Room" message hinted at Delta reductions and nothing new from United. With Midwest in crisis, we should expect further cuts from them.

Between the majors and fractionals, there are very few classes running. This means that senior Skywest pilots have few places to move on to.

We're light on the Bro, that's no secret. But it sounds like there might be some cuts on the pro-rate flying. The CRJ, as far as I can tell, is grotesquely overstaffed in all bases.

The national economy isn't so hot right now. Inflation continues to be a problem, and might be getting worse. Banks are still in crisis, and the housing debacle is far from over. All of this will have a negative impact the amount of real dollars lubricating our economic machine.

If I had to throw a number out there, I'd say spring of next year at the earliest, but more likely 2010.

2011.

But I think most regionals will be in the same boat. Not singling out SKW.

PDT=late fall early 09

Spring 2009.......I hope!

Wish I knew......kinda torn between flying 135 and continuing to instruct.

Stupid question....but does having a bunch of furloughed 121 guys hurt a CFI's chances of getting hired with a regional? It seems like flight experience matters...but in most cases, it doesn't.

I'd say with the current environment "yes" it hurts your chances. The only reason being, why would a company hire a CFI who has no 121 experience including flying the line(in a turbine aircraft with pax), passing IOE and groundschool when there are plenty of guys/gals who have? It sucks, but it is probably going to be the trend for a bit until hiring starts up again which hopefully will be sooner than later.

It hurts CFI's like me if furloughed regional pilots decide to move laterally to other regional carriers. That assumes some carriers will begin hiring aggressively before other carriers. I'm not sure that will be the case. UAL basically said on Friday that its furloughs were mainly the result of oil. If oil retreats, they believe they could bring back employees faster. If oil is the prime driver, most carriers should return to some form of viability at the same time. I don't know if that will be the case though. I can't imagine a scenario where furloughed pilots from UAL, AirTran, and other places would affect CFI's unless the regional hired street captains.

Why not fly 135 now if you can? If 121 is your goal, having single pilot 135 experience will be more valuable than more CFI time when it comes time to be competitive.

Here is a scenario, furloughed major pilots means less movement at the Regionals so less jobs for CFI's to get hired by regionals. It is the food chain and when the top of the food chain feels the pain so does everyone on down to the bottom.

Very true. I guess we won't know until we see who is actually part of "furloughed" pilots at major carriers. If they able to buy out a good number of high seniority guys, then attrition should provide some movement. If it's just low rung guys, then the regionals will be back logged for some time.

Wish I had a crystal ball........

I think hiring is going to be weak for a very long time. If oil retreats, most fare-setting airlines are going to stay constricted for a few more years in hopes of replenishing cash and paying down debt. Also, I expect any profits realized by the fare-setting airlines (my new line in the sand between a regional and a major) will be invested into replacing old equipment as opposed to increasing fleet size. This capacity reduction needed to happen for the airlines to return to being healthy businesses.

Pilots will retire, and through that attrition you will see some hiring once the furloughs are recalled. That hiring will be steady, but slow. Slow and steady is what wins the race, and when you see the airline hiring following that trend, you will know health has been restored to our industry.

In the mean time, if you see any gang-busters hiring, it will be at those carriers who have survived to pick up the pieces of a fallen airline. Places like Mesa will continue to hire due to rampant attrition, but hiring in these times should almost be a bad omen.

Do what you please, but don't expect to "make it" if you make it to the airlines. Upgrades everywhere will be at an Eagle pace, in Piedmont increments. Most attrition will occur among junior captains and senior FO's. The current state of affairs is going to make for a lot of lifers at the regionals. No airline is exempt, and as to who is going to prosper the most, well it really is luck of the draw. Wholly owned vs. contract carrier? Regional vs mainline? Prop vs. regional jet? Every side has its merits, but merit is not going to win this battle of survival. Pick a team and strap in, and know where your other options lay.

One good thing:
for the most part, management teams have not touted pay cuts as the key to survival. Sure, Xjet has, but I think that is an educated request meant to keep wages in line with the new rates Xjet agreed to fly for with CAL. Air Tran has asked too, but in poor taste. Everyone else, despite furloughs and soaring oil, has left the subject of pilot pay alone. Management realizes that a few million in wage concessions is trivial compared to fuel costs. So for anyone who wants to enter in this game now, at least you can expect pay to stay level. Of course gas and milk will triple, but what can you do?

It's all about oil. Oil, oil, oil. Somewhere, JR Ewing is smiling.

I imagine Skywest will be hiring again by the end of 2008. The Brasilia will need pilots if nothing else and there's still movement. JMHO

I am not sure but my guess is there are 60-80 in the pool. I know for sure they cancelled 2 Brasilia classes and 1 CRJ class. I think each had 20 in each and there may have been a 4th class.

My guess is they won't be interviewing again until next year. I think it would be lucky if half of the pool ever makes it to training. I am sure 1/2 will find other jobs in the meanwhile.

Midwest Air is cutting their flying by 40% and this may affect SkyWest. It is tough because of course we all want to work for the better companies and not settle but it is just a guess when/if they interview again.

I know it sounds mean, but they are a healthy company and will prosper if, not when, one of the other regionals fold. Unfortunately, a bad economy wipes a lot of companies out of business. It has happened with the banks and now the airlines. SkyWest will hang in and prosper. So will Southwest and all the other companies that are doing decent right now.

Tough time to be looking for a job.

Once SkyWest gets through the pool, I'd hope the United and Midwest pilots that are getting furloghed this year have first opportunity to work here if that's their desire. After that they'll be plenty of other furlouged pilots from the other airlines to choose from, most with RJ time, if not CRJ time.

How many of the Skyway pilots made it to SkyWest? How many are in the pool?

There were only maybe 20 SYX guys that interviewed over there, and maybe 10-15 were hired. None ever made it to training since it was shut down before they were ever offered class dates. Many went to AirTran, Republic, Compass and Mesaba.

I think our hiring is all going to depend on what happens with the UA schedule over the next 6 months. I have a hard time seeing UA parking a bunch of planes and axing the frequencies outright. Their bread and butter is international flights, and they need traffic to feed the big boys and the guppys' provide a ton of that feed.

Here is a bit of a scenario I envision--and I may be way off so guys, please feel free to chime in: UA feels they need people to come into a hub and out internationally to make money. They also want people overseas buying tickets to come to come here to help fill the flights on the way back. They know they will have a lot harder time getting passengers when they say "we can get you to/from the states, but we dropped service to all cities near you so now you need to buy a ticket on Southwest to start/finish your trip." It will drive people to look at other airlines where pax might be able to fly the entire trip on AA or DL. They can't get rid of all those flights because it will reduce how competitive they are.

I read an article in Crains Chicago Business that for example said ORD-BOS is going to lose 1% of the flights but 27% of the seats. ORD-LGA is going to gain flights but lose seats. Those are just a couple changes mentioned. That sounds an awful lot like RJs replacing mainline planes. That could mean growth for us and that is why I think we will wait and see what UA does before we hire.

we got about 6 here on the line now and several in the pool.

Each of the majors seems to be taking a different strategy on capacity reduction. AMR & DAL are whacking both mainline and regional capacity. NWA & UAL, if I read their announcements correctly, are reducing mainline capacity, and as you suggest, largely replacing mainline cuts by at least holding steady with regional capacity and substituting regional flights from some mainline flights.