$64,000 Question
 

I know that I will get a lot of flack for asking this question... but here goes. :rolleyes:

I have heard that the airline industry is very cyclical. The question is how cyclical and is it at all predictable. I owned a flight school 2001 thru 2003 and pilots were getting furloughed, no one wanted to learn to fly and everyone thought the pilot profession was doom and gloom, and then came the low time hiring boom.

A good friend of mine is now flying 777’s for CAL, when I met him 9 years ago he was a new ATR captain for XJET. He told me that when he decided to make a career change in the late 90’s everyone said he was crazy… no one was hiring civilian pilots at the time. I know that there have been a number of hiring booms since that time.

No one has a crystal ball…. But I am interested to hear what people in the business think. How long before the industry begins hiring again?

Four years.

They won't for at least another year. However now gas prices are higher so it's an issue that airlines have never faced before it's difficult to predict how they will react. Plus from what I've heard around the local airport and in general around the industry, commercial training is at an all time low because wages and QOL continue to go down. We could face a pilot shortage crisis maybe 5 to 10 years from now.

Well even if things turned around rapidly there would be alot of furloughed guys to get back in the seat first.... then you might see some across the industry hiring.... hell AA NEVER hired during this last boom they were still in recall mode.

time frame... who knows but I would be at least a year or more for anything substantial.

I would predict 18 months for this current slowdown. But it could be less or more.

I also think many of the furloughed pilots will either never return or will have found new flying jobs.

When I got hired at my current company everyone said, "There will be zero hiring at the majors for another 5+ years. Thousands upon thousands of pilots on the street." A year later Continental was hiring. Then Delta and United and UPS and FedEx snapped up our pilots. We had some go to companies which subsequently turned out not to be good choices (not the pilots' fault).

There is no crystal ball. But things are usually less bad than they look, at least depending on where you sit.

Frankly, now would not be a bad time to get into it if you want to start training. Get your certificates. Get a job instructing or flying freight or whatever to build time and experience and be ready.

18 months ago the regional carriers couldn't hire fast enough.

But it really depends upon what happens with fuel. If it spikes again we could be in deep trouble and the industry may face massive capacity cuts.

Right now fuel has leveled off and even gone down a bit. Good news for now.

when the hiring starts again, get onboard at the beginning! that's the best advice I can give.

I wouldn't say that the airlines have never faced high fuel prices. (1980-1981 comes to mind—the imminent death of the business was predicted, and the pundits were wrong again.)

HOWEVER, the full impact of high fuel costs is yet to be fully felt, in my opinion. And parking 50-seat RJs will probably continue unless and until oil goes to <$100/barrel.

The entire "50 seat regional jet" thing is sort of stupid in my opinion. Cool airplane? Yes. Quite nifty. BUT...Most of the missions that the airplane flies can be much more efficiently and effectively handled with a Q400 or other turboprop airplane; my guess is that Bombardier won't be able to build the new Dashes fast enough if fuel stays high, and that 50-seat capacity reductions for Regional Jets will continue.

(On that note, one thing I find utterly amazing is how much domestic flying that SkyWest and friends do that the mainline companies used to do themselves. Something about "giving away the store" comes to mind with respect to scope and QOL...)

This is my best guess...although I'd like to think it's based on something better than most airline analysts, who have never seen an airplane before. :)

I agree, its hard to train for something thats not there right now... However the more prepared you are for the next boom, the better off you'll be or have your students be. They will have options, competitive mins at many places.

Thats the current gameplan I have, a little late to the game, but I have a sugarmomma as a wife. I definately feel for the guys dumping wads of dough only to spend the next couple of years making less than the bare mins to live.

This is my wild guess............... look into post 9-11 industry trend and recovery (if any) period......... 5-6 years? I mean, this industry will pick up again, but first, we'll have to let this decade end, recall furloughs (thousands) and then we'll think about hiring........... I think I'm going to start a new thread about this decade......... (so I don't hijack this one with my questions)