What do you think?
 

A question based soley off of speculation and opinion. With furloughs at the regional/major level, staus of the economy, fuel prices, downsizing, age 65, etc etc. What year to you see hiring picking up? Mininimal hiring and large-scale hiring?

I think a few regionals will start emtying their pools in a year or so, while furloughs will be called back around the same time and end 2 years from now. Small-scale hiring will start in 1.5 to 2 years for attrition only, and when age 65 picks up in 3-5 years I see hiring all accross the boards from the regional level to the major/national level. Will we see a 1.5 year upgrade then, possibly. Who knows. Just my guess...

I'm just curious what everyone thinks?

Why do you insist on torturing yourself with this guessing? Its time to realize that you're strapped into the roller coaster, your along for the ride, and you can't do much about it. Pick your battles as they come to you, not before.

I agree for the most part, but I dont think there will be as much hiring at the major level in 3-5 yrs. I expect lots of mergers, further capacity reduction, and stronger alliances with foreign carriers(maybe even mergers). Hiring will be small scale but steady at the regional level mostly to cover attrition as opposed to expansion. I think there will be a shift away from fragmenting regional flying, and instead bringing it together either to wholly owned affiliates or a small number of large regional carriers doing most of the flying (Skywest, RAH/CHQ, Expressjet). I dont think youll see a 1.5 yr upgrade at any carrier in the next 5 years.

As long as there arent anymore idiots that think they can jump into the domestic market and make money by selling 15 dollar tickets there shouldnt need to be too much more shrinking in the domestic side of things for the big guys........ hopefully

This is my prediction as well...maybe stretch that out to 5-10 years though.

Yea there is, quit flying for money and try a real career. I predict there will be steady hiring at the regional level starting at the end of the year. I think we can forget the majors for a while though.

I will feed your question into the bat computer and see what it comes up with.............lemme see, Joker is robing Gotham Bank, Two Face has asked for butt implants.............still working..........Super man just found out Lois lane has fallen in love with clark Kent..............O.K.!!! I got something it says...............HELL IF I KNOW.

What do you think will drive this hiring?

Let it go guys, just let it go! All you are doing is driving yourselves insane with these questions.

Sound advice!

I don't see why hiring wouldn't strongly resume again in 4 years when pilots hit 65. The economy should be at least okay by then, which will help more people fly and....once again, there are a lot of pilots that are going to retire. Even without growth the attrition will be high, leading to hiring at all levels. I haven't been around that long, but isn't this hiring and furloughing cycle pretty much the norm in an airline career?

Hiring will go up as more pilots retire, but the big question will be "Who will be doing the hiring?" If United or USAirways goes down for the count, their A320 and 737 pilots will be much more competitive for hiring than a RJ captain with 1000 hours total PIC.

Hiring will pick up as the economy improves. A year is a good guess and fits the projections in the business section. The legacy airlines are still parking aircraft and this won't change. They will downsize their fleets and outsource their domestic flying. All age 65 retirements will do is preventing furloughing, not induce hiring.

Speaking of age 65, not many pilots I've talked to about it plan on sticking around until age 65. Many are looking at 62. Even if they wanted to stick around until 65, many won't be able to maintain a First Class medical due to a lifetime of indiscretionary health habits. The number one reason most people of all occupations avoid early retirement is the lack of medical insurance until Medicare kicks in at 65. Airlines could induce earlier retirements by addressing this problem.

IATA's 2010-2020 Pilot Hiring Projections

That should just about answer all your questions.

What happened in 06 and 07 will happen again. Pilots who come from military/college backgrounds flying for the majors that have been furloughed twice (United) will not come back. Pilots who just got hired by the regionals for 18k then got furloughed will probably not come back. The best advice I could give you would be to watch the economy not the airline for your hints on a recovery/hiring boom.

If you are a low time guy and are really want to make come money and have an adventure look into going overseas to Africa and flying for the UN. Or PM me and I will try to help you out.