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What's your guess?
1. When do YOU think the industry will pick up
2. Who will be the first to hire. Ready. Go. |
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1.Never 2. Noone You should ask. 1. When do YOU think the industry will go from bad to worse? 2. Who will be the first to furlough more? sorry... im just full of optimism. |
1. Once the economy recovers
2. Colgan |
1. I hope soon
2. Who knows Final thought, this will change when it does, none of us control it, but what we can control is what we do with our spare time (that we have recieved). I choose to spend mine with a positive attitiude and telling my wife how much she means to me. Yes the state of the industry is very important, but never forget the most important thing is right under your nose....I lost a friend last month, and it brought me some perspective Go tell your loved ones how important they are, you never know when it might be your last chance |
I see this thread going down a dark road......
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Well it's obvious the regional I fly for will hire before any other regional....:D
I think there are many regionals that are in a position to expand once the industry picks up again. It all depends on how they weather the rest of the year things change so fast in this industry you just never know. |
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I would guess 2-3 years till you start to see growth again. Limited hiring for 2 years with more to come in the 3-5 year range when all the 65'ers finally leave.
As for hiring....regional....Well it better be Compass!!! We are so short now it is crazy. We could hire 20-25 tomorrow and that might help if we stop losing people. But wait management would have to pull their head out to see that. Today alone I saw 2 captain/captain crews because we have no FOs. Oh did I mention we have no captain reserves either all with 11-12 days off! |
Late this year or early part of next the economy will pick up. The first to hire will be the regionals or Southwest. The majors will continue to readjust to the market and shrink as pilots retire.
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Something will have to be done about this summer I'm thinking, with certain carriers that are picking up hours and are already stretched with reservists etc. Whether or not that lasts who knows, but the markets have been heading in the right direction the last few weeks, so maybe, just maybe there's a sparkle of hope in there somewhere. As for who hires first? Who knows. Guess I'll go with Colgan, seems to be the popular answer here so far; besides they're one of few that don't have pilots on the street as far as I know.
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Never......well not for a long time. I dont ever expect to be recalled... so I did something about my future, and joined the military...... I could sit around for the next few years and wait like my friends are......................................... even if they do recall soon, ill be better off with my career path now then going back and being an FO for 12 years.
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the industry will pick up in 2-3 years. just think about it guys. since the age 65 rule attrition has been held to nearly 0. the only people leaving the majors are guys who cant hold a medical anymore, or wanted out. once the new delta starts losing about 1200 pilots a year in about 3 years the bottom will fall out and this place will look like the 60's all over again. same with usair america west. i mean at usair the most junior captain has a DOH of 3/17/86. there is going to be movement in the next few years. and the movent will make this last run look like we were standing still.
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1. 1-3 years, depends on a lot of things though...
2. This is hard to guess, a lot of regionals have folks furloughed so look for those that don't have any on the street to hire first because everyone will have to be recalled everywhere else before street hires. My money is on Colgan and Lakes to be first up to bat. |
1: One year for the first regional to start the hiring spree
2: Based on delivery schedules Colgan will need to hire in mass exodus to fulfill the slots in the Q 3. All regionals call furloughees back :rolleyes: disclaimer... its still april so I had to add number 3 in; but I do hope everyone gets called back soon |
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when there is some sign of "unity and solidarity"....
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Every fellow pilot I talk with has a sever case of Resignation when it comes to their career. I constantly hear things like "that will never happen", "it will never be as it was", "no way", "we will never be appreciated again", "that idea will never work", "nothings going to change". What in Gods name is wrong with all of you! Our profession will become what we as a whole believe we are. |
It will come back when it comes back. In the mean time just focus on being the best fantasy baseball manager you can be and focus on "positive energy." My Dad, got cancer and turned over this new leaf of "positive attitude=positive energy= positive results" and he is still here...So maybe all this new age crap works?
PS Randolph tell Mortimer I say hello! |
Who is Mortimer? UND guy?
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1. Not for a while.
2. Prior to age 65- a lot of them right now After age 65- nobody for 5 years. |
1. I hope sometime next year...
2. Lakes or Colgan |
1. 08/21/09 That will be the date. Make certain you invest heavily everything you own on this date. Everything will turn around exactly on this date and not a day before. And if you believe me, my friend Mr. Madhoff and I would like to run your portfolio. :cool:
2. The airline willing to make the most labor concessions and work for the lowest wages legally allowed by the State!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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The guy who started the thread was named Randolph. Remember Randolph and Mortimer Duke from trading places? |
Ahh can't say I do. Epic fail on part :rolleyes:
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I promise you that when my sh___y regional recalls everyone and starts hiring again, I will march your resume into corporate so you can get this same sh___y regional job, and you will never have to listen to Fatman, Napoleon Dynamite and H___s ever again! All this because I like your attitude and where you went to school! |
I say the furloughed are going to come back later this year. I doubt we'll see hiring any time soon though, obviously places like Great Lakes will always be hiring but other than that I really doubt we'll even see hiring next year. The airlines lag behind the economy and everyone is saying we still haven't seen the bottom yet and judging by the unemployment figures we're still going down. And not to be a downer but there is no sign that the airlines have hit bottom yet as well. Traffic continues to drop. One positive thing about all this is that the regionals will rebound a lot faster than the majors.
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1. No real new hiring until spring 2010, perhaps summer. Recalls will happen this summer, but unfortunately regional recalls will be seasonal employees this time around. Next spring recalls will be back on a permanent basis, followed by hiring off the street by summer.
2. Regional hiring will begin at: -Colgan -Skywest -Mesaba (I think you guys will benefit most from the DAL/NWA merger) Major hiring will begin in 2010 at: -Delta -Southwest -Airtran (if you want to live in ATL, 2010 looks like your year!) |
I agree with Rightseat Ballast that any significant hiring will not start till 2010. There's a small chance that some regionals might start hiring in the Fall of 2009.
As far as Majors are concerned, I agree that DAL and SWA are about the only ones that I think will hire in 2010. Foreign carriers like Emirates and Cathay Pacific will probably start to hire as well in 2010. That's my guess. FDX and UPS are a wild card but I think they will also hire in 2010 not due to expansion but due to attrition and retirement. |
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Cyclical economic data has been observed by ATA since 1938. The early years of commercial aviation from 1938 to 1959 shows a steady increase in profits caused by the growing industry. With the introduction of the Jet Airlines in the 1960’s, which lays a base for the business structure known today, the profit pattern became that of a first order damped oscillation system with peaks and valleys somewhat equal. The damping factor was the ability of the government to change fares as a direct response to demand using the P=D-C theory. As an example the cost of an RPM increased from .0663$ to .1280$ between 1973 and 19841 following the Yom Kippur war and the subsequent fuel crisis. In contrast with the latter, the price of an RPM decreased following the beginning of the gulf war and 9/11 and in both cases the RPM price rose while profits increased indicating a lag between the oscillation of profits and RPMs. There is a saying that airlines are always the first to feel a crisis and the last to benefit from a prospering economy. This can be explained by the lag between economic cycles and the adjustment in the airline industry. Interestingly the cycles of the airline industry have been quite consistent in terms of frequency. It can be determined that the fundamental frequency of an oscillatory graph based on airline profits is 0.0938/year. The period of the industry cycle can therefore be established as the reciprocal of the frequency, 10.7 years. This cycle period is therefore endogenous caused by the lag between demand/orders and acquisitions of aircraft and not significantly affected by events such as 9/11. The more lag there is the more aggravated the cycle amplitude becomes. Prior to deregulation, industry lag was minimal since the federal government could react quickly to changing needs and acted as a damper on the system. This created an economic cyclical sine wave similar to that of neutral stability. Exogenous factors such as international problems, fuel crisis and economic cycles have a relatively small impact on period but a large impact on amplitude.
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Even if there is truth to this, there isn't enough of a track record from a statistic viewpoint to increase the confidence interval of that 10.7 number to anything reliable. Its just a fart in the wind guess right now. |
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