Not to burst your bubble but he also predicted furloughs each month from September through January. Does 'calling truth' one out of six times actually count?

Less airplanes doesn't always mean less flying. My question is that when we park the 20 RJs next year how much block time will we lose? If (BIG IF) we park the planes and lose ZERO hrs of block time then staffing will still be fine. Just means that the other 90 RJs will have to pick up the slack. Same can be said for the opposite, 110 RJs and a drastic cut in block hours leads to furloughs. (make is short and simple) I do agree with JP that I doubt there will be 200 ppl furloughed. I think this summer is proof of that. If what the memo said is true then, then this is going to be ASA biggest summer flying in a long while. Where did this extra flying come from? Why ASA? What is going on with the DCI carriers? All questions we don't know and can only wait to see. Now if ASA does another 2 for 1 deal then we are in trouble. I forgot who was it I was talking to at ASA, either CP or ALPA MEC, but they told me that ASA based their staffing on block hours.

Just my $.02

To be exact, I predicted furloughs were coming through the fall but stated that no one knew when. This because management was still waffling on whether to do it or not and trying to get people to take voluntary leaves.

In January, I learned they were indeed coming and within the next few weeks, which I passed along (not predicted).

So for the record, I was not wrong 5 out of 6 times. I just passed along the information I had available at the time. Believe that information or not as you wish.

Sounds like a very accurate observation.

Agreed! But I assure you another one is coming (not sure when). Factor that into your plans.

That is correct.

those are good points. so both of you agree another 2 for 1 is gonna be bad news and JP is sure another one is coming. is your source optimistic about finding homes for those planes or just the first 20. it seems to me that all roads are leading to more furloughs. and it looks like besides the 3 months out of the year where we actually have a lot of flying, the other 9 months are gonna suck. also, did you source indicate which new airlines or bases are possibilities for us.

There have been multiple people saying another 2-1 is in the works. How will this affect the contract? Is it for number of total aircraft or block hours in this case?

Also, 1000+ flights for the summer is a substantial increase, even from last summer. How dismal is the fall projection right now that the company cant even use a few people back. 600, 650 daily flights?

All of you are at ASA or like me furloughed from ASA. Think about it... how often have we heard management say that ASA must expand to survive? How they keep comparing SKW's growing fleet of 700, 900 and EMB's to us not having more then 39 700s (at the time). Now that we have 10 900's there is no doubt they are looking for more. I agree it is a matter of when another deal will go down but I also think that we MAY not have to worry too much about it because it may take time for it to happen. By then, I hope attrition would save our butts. No matter how bad the market gets airlines will have attrition and if ASA keeps their head above the water on block hours then 80 ppl leaving ASA in a year or slightly more is not out of the question. Last June-Jan (the period where things started to get bad) my seniority number still went up about 21 people. Airtran has reported a 1st Q profit and has recalled all their guys. We know many ASA pilots move over there so if Airtran does hire again in the near future, we will see a few guys leave. I think sometimes as a group (including myself) we loose sleep by over analyzing things. As I said before, management thought this summer was going to be ASA's worst summer and now it's looking to be their best. Who knows what can happen come fall. As long as our brothers and sisters remember that we are furloughed they will remind company. From what I heard from other pilots is that line pilots have brought up the topic of furloughed guys coming back. So it is at least comforting to know that we are not forgotten.

well said for once!

I think right now ASA is at around 800 daily flights? I think last summer is was at around 850-900???

After hearing about the summer flying, I bet the fall predictions are out of the window too. No one knows.....

From the e-mail, it sounds like they are doing the opposite of thinning out lines. They are just going to fatten the crap out of them to keep from recall. Just to maintain the same amount of guys on RES right now and not recall. On the upside... you guys that are not furloughed will be working for some FAT checks this summer. Wonder if you guys will even have a break for open time. OR is open time just going to be a good way for RES guy to see if he is going to get a trip. :D

HAHAHA "for once" have we butted heads before??? :confused: :D