A question from an ASA furloughed pilot
 

So I've got a lot of time on my hands while on furlough. I decided to crunch some numbers when it comes to ASA's summer flying in relation to the decision to furlough last Feb. I realize that the summer flying wasn't known when the decision to furlough was made, but wanted to try and figure out financially what the furlough was going to cost.

I realize there are some numbers that I just don't know. I took very conservative numbers and tried to figure out how much the decision to cut costs by furloughing is going to end up costing them this summer. I figured about 1600 pilots with an average hourly rate of about $55 crediting 15 hours over guarantee a month. I think these numbers are a little conservative. I decided to not try to add per diem or any other contractual pay. The numbers above come out to 1.32 million per month. For June-Aug that is 3.96 million.

If the 80 furloughs were there, I used $38 as a conservative hourly rate because it's second year 700 FO. All 80 would still be on reserve, but possibly over guarantee so I used 85 hours of credit. Again I left per diem and contractual pay out. That number is $258,400 a month or $775,200 for the summer. I realize there are training costs, insurance, etc. that would need to be factored, but that would be a wild guess for me. As far as the numbers I'm using if ASA had not furloughed and kept us on for 12 more months to see what happens with the 20 200s, and remember my numbers are 85 hours of credit for the FOs it would have cost them 3.1 million. That number is still less than what they are going to pay June-Aug. because they furloughed.

I realize that the extra money made by ASA crews this summer is going to be a great help to them and their families. I am happy for all of you for that. However, I do wish that I was still at work as well as the other furloughees. I would also like to stress that this was meant to be a look at ASA's effectiveness in cutting costs. I welcome all of your responses and any input you may have.

Fly Safe,

hemaybedid

Nice post.

Simple numbers show the inadequate staffing for the summer. Roughly 10% more flying, 10 more airplanes, at least 80 less pilots (attrition) might make for a rough summer operationally speaking.

Fact is, could they have kept us around? Yes. Did they want to with the current projections? No.

All this is still water under the bridge, but more importantly that if/when there are plans for any of the airplanes and/or and increase in block hours for the fall/winter, they need to start owning up and bringing at least some back on property.

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It is also my understanding that when ASA continued to hire as late as the fall of 2007 they were still counting on more attrition that did not materialize and thus were almost immediatly over staffed even before the majority of the cuts took place in terms of block hours.

I also believe that the training costs for bringing back the furloughs will be extrememly expensive.

There is also the fact they may not want to put the furloughs through another round of furloughs in the fall after they are only back for a couple months. They may be needing to pay a little extra in terms of crew costs to simply avoid putting someone through a second furlough.

In terms of current staffing there are lines with 90 hours all the way to bunch of lines made at 75 hours only.

It looks like the current staffing is able to handle the increase in hours so far.........

I would love the get a few furloughs back though for sure I dont like hearing about people being extended and what not.

To me it makes more sense to have a few more folks getting paid the guarantee on reserve to cover some flights than paying a 4th year FO time and a half for an extra round trip, that cost adds up.

It would be very interesting to see the "actual metrics" used to give the go-ahead to furlough, and what those numbers look like now considering what they know now about the next few months, and possibly beyond. Is it at least moving in a positive direction or is it otherwise? I realize there is no crystal ball as to the future but I do wonder what priority is given to us behind closed doors on the management side...

BTW, anyone got a guess as to what the "ballpark figure" for re-training would be per pilot? Always wondered about that one...

A logical strategy to reduce cost in a market experiencing reduced demand is to cut workforce. I'm no businessman, but this is also not rocket science.

I really do feel for you guys on furlough. I got a nice surprise when I checked e-trip this morning. They took away my day off next Sunday and moved it to Monday. Don't get me wrong, I'm not whining, I'm very happy to have a job. If they do furlough again in the fall I will definitely be included. I just want you guys to know that we keep getting constant reminders that you aren't here with us right now.

Thanks for all the replies. I think what got me thinking about the furloughs and if they were effective in cutting cost was the thread about the SKW Inc. earnings call. When I read that they referenced the furloughs as a cost cutting measure was about the same time I got the email about the summer flying and bringing back everyone on leave and building the lines over guarantee. The fact that they referenced the furloughes at that time when they already knew what the summer had in store felt like a slap to the face. I realize they didn't know what the summer would look like in Feb., but if they're not saving money from the furlough they should own up to it. I guess we'll have to wait for the 2nd quarter earnings call, but I'm not gonna keep my fingers crossed that they'll own up to it then. Probably just say that the furloughs saved them money again.

BH told me, when I e-mailed him about the summer flying and us furloughed guys, that ASA has been looking into bring us back each month. The problem is just that Delta has told ASA there WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT reduction to our flying come September. He said that the summer flying is only for 60 days and ASA doesn't want to put us through another furlough come Sept. He did admit that ASA doesn't know what Delta means be significant and they are waiting to find out. To me that makes enough sense to hold off on recall because I don't want to go to ATL just to leave again in 30 days. He also did tell me that he is working on some extra flying out there and after reading the 1st quarter report they did mention that there is a rather large market for 200s in the United flying that Skywest INC. is trying to secure. If that goes to Skywest or ASA I don't know. (if Skywest Inc. gets it)

Because we were furloughed 1/2 way through the 1st quarter. I felt that the comment they made about us was to tell the investors to wait and see the 2nd quarter reports for proof that furloughing us was a good cost cutting measure.

I understand what you're saying, but with the way that airline pilot compensation is structured that is not unfailing logic as I tried to illustrate in my original post.

No, it's the exact same number of airplanes... The 900's were atr replacements...

When did they start pulling them from service? Was it July? I forget how many were in service in the summer/fall

Disregarding the loss of the ATR's, its still 10% more flying with about ~100 less pilots than last summer.

A lot of the instructor pilots are being pulled now to do line flying in both seats. Also, when did the furloughees actually start line flying? Maybe 20-30 in May, 30-40 in June and the rest in July?

As much as I'd like the furloughees back, it would really suck to come back for two months and then get sent home again in September.

As for the cost of bringing them back, why would it cost more than the pro-check and recurrent flight/ground that should be due now anyway? Just curious why people think it would cost so much.

I not sure if any other furloughed guys have said this but I would rather not come back until there is a better chance of staying around. I had enough trouble finding the one part time job I have found and I wouldn't want to give that up to fly for two months then back on the street with no job.

The reason training costs will be so much is simple.

The reality is that very few of us could potentially be back within a year. That said, if we are furloughed for longer than 12 months a whole "Initial" training program must be completed.

That means.

Basic Indoc (again)
Systems (Again)
GenOps (Again)
CPTs (Again)
Sim Training (Again)
IOE (Again)
Differences (Again)

Also, paying us 2nd year pay at MMG for the whole training process. That also means paying our IPs their appropriate wage for providing flight training. It won't be cheap, and it will largely be a shot in the foot (as already indicated by the OP's initial math regarding this summer).

You see, it's not just a simple PC/recurrent if we're out of the 121 training environment for more than 12 months. As already illustrated, none of us will be back during the summer time and there is a somewhat likelihood that more people will be joining us come September.

Honestly, I don't care. I've managed to find my way into a great opportunity with a new company no where near related to aviation and the bull**** we have to deal with, nor the backstabbing management either.

So, I'll patiently wait a recall. If it's next year (Spring 2010) like everyone has indicated already, fine. If its 2 years, excellent, fine. But it won't be anytime soon.

I for one, really can't put my family through two furloughs in one year. Flying planes professional is not suppose to be a part time / seasonal / temporary endeavor. We're professionals and should not be treated as summertime help between school.

Sorry, should have been more clear - if you were recalled this month, why would it cost more than getting a PC (which is due this month anyway)? A lot of folks are saying we didn't recall for the summer flying because of the cost but no one can explain why. Again, that wouldn't be fair to you guys but I don't get why people are saying it would cost so much to recall now.

:)Dude,

If you took the time to go thru all of that, you did figure that you should be in management, right? :)

I mean, you're trying to save money for them that they are NOT trying to save.

Throw bonuses, good press, stockholder options, golf course deals, and just plain ignorance into the equation and well, there is no equation. It's the American way. Save you time and energy and go to law school. Then become an executive and woo them with your fancy numbers and have one of us (me) fly you around (Rio). :D


I'll stay there (Rio) as long as you want. Hell, base me there and I won't even tell them that you used to be a pilot. Just give me 72 hours before I have to check in (And no destinations that require de-icing).

New K Now

All 12 ATRs were flying last summer, they started removing 2-3 from service each month until December.

As an ATR pilot who went through training again (minus Basic Indoc) to get transitioned to the CRJ, they have completely refined the process thanks to Jim from the ATR training department taking over the CRJ training department.

Training now consists of two weeks of system lectures which are also combined with FMS training at the end of the day. Also instead of paper tigers, they have replaced that with Graphical Flight Simulator training which is you sitting in front of a mock cockpit that has a big computer screen where all the panels are, and now when you push the button it does something, and you can actually see what is happening when you are doing you flow, etc. You continue with a week of GenOps while also finishing off you GFS training. You also don't get to move on to SIM training until they know you have all your flows down, and have thorough systems knowledge. After that is your typical sim training. The whole process took a month and a half.

Well that's wonderful. Still going to cost the company money to "retrain" 80 people, at 2nd year pay, for 6-8 weeks. While, paying IPs their instructor pay.

It is my understanding that a RFT/PC was the requirement for an individual who was de-qualed for less than 90 days.

Considering the date of removal from the company was February 8th, it's been more than 90 days. We were not told what the training process would be for 91 - 180 days, or 180-365 days, but we were told it would be more than just RFT/PC.

Sounds good to me New. I'll work on that.:)

I don't know about the more senior furloughees (not sure of the dates), but as for my class we were furloughed with 9 months longevity. According to the contract we do not accrue longevity while on furlough. Therefore we will have to have another training event while still on probation and only receive first year pay for another three months after we return.

According to the latest email from Scott there will be a reduction of about 9,000 block hours (46,000-37,000) in the fall. 37,000 will remain consistent until the summer of 2010 unless the economy improves or Delta decides to give us more flying from someone else. It looks like we will all be stuck on the street for awhile.

37000 hours means we will be flying just about 800 flights a day until summer 2010 . That is about what we have been doing in may... It is a large reduction and seems to hint that they will leave the manning levels alone until they decide what to do with the 50's. If the 50's are placed at some airline then you guys will be back at the start of 2010. That's just my guess...

Another thing struck me as interesting was that they seem to be anticipating larger block hours next summer. After taking 20 50 seat jets out of service one would think they would reduce hours... I wonder if delta just plans to increase aircraft usage or if ASA is building in the idea of placing those aircraft into their calculations.

The next seniority list comes out in July right? It'll be interesting to see if we've had any attrition or if they adjust the seniority list for the pilots that left for GoJet.

Bock hours last fall and this spring were around 39,000 hours. This is a drop of 2000 hours from those levels. I would expect to see a "staffing level adjustment" this fall.

I dont want to go back to ASA until they have enough flying for us to do> Being stuck in ATL at a crashpad for 4-5 days and not flying sucks, and I dont want to do it. Call me back when staffing levels are where a reserve guy/gal is at least making 85 hours of credit!!!

I'd be happy with just FLYING at least 70hrs credit. Going months without a single flight sucked.