The best indicator is to look to the past and study past recessions. Bond markets are still a retroactive index to a large degree. Typically a bond sells at a price reflective of the current market rate (inversely related). In fact, the stock market seems a better indicator in many ways as those savvy investors are willing to buy up stock when they believe the returns will start coming.

My belief is that we've already bottomed out and are on the way up. Consumer confidence is up, the housing market is slowly working itself out, etc.

I also believe that a pilot shortage is on the way. However, this is easily avoided by airline maneuvering - airline sponsored training programs where you are locked into a contract, multi-crew, lowered minimums, more and more automation to hold pilots' hands in the cockpit, etc. Ingenuity knows no boundaries. The airplanes will be staffed regardless. Furthermore, when there is a huge boom in hiring and pilot training, the mad dash to the RJ will mean inherently less qualified individuals because schools will try to capitalize on the 6 month zero-to-hero programs, etc - which will translate to even less pay because the entry level jobs will equate to "internships", especially in the case of an airline sponsored program.

Think Gulfstream.....

EDIT: The more I think about this airline sponsored idea, the more this seems to be a viable solution from the airline's viewpoint. Think about it:

Training is VERY expensive. Some bloke with the dream to be a pilot shows up and can receive training at a drastically reduced cost (you still pay though). The backside of the deal is that after being hired (assuming you can pass the rides, etc) you are stuck in an employment contract for X years - at horrible pay. The airline will recoup their costs through decreased payrolls. The students will think they've hit gold because they were trained for less and get a guaranteed "job" at the end. The bar will be set lower and when the next crash happens, management can cite "industry standard wages" all over again.

Furthermore, if you breach the contract, you owe the airline your firstborn child and more. In addition to the seniority system's grasp on you, you are anchored down even more by the contract, which results in less training costs for the airline due to lower turnover, etc. Its a perfect WIN-LOSE situation!

Oh my!! :eek:

Have to disagree with you. The stock market is an indicator of future economic conditions. Market traders do not care about what has happened, they care about what might happen. The market is and has always been forward looking. Any basic college finance textbook will say that.

This is what the Chinese airlines are doing right now. I have a student who is in contract with China Eastern. When he gets to Captain on the 340 he is expecting ~85,000 a year.